Publications:

Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 2007:
"Initial Perturbations Based on the Ensemble Transform (ET) Technique in the NCEP Global Operational Forecast System"
Tellus 59A, 62-79

Zhu, Y. 2007:
"Objective Evaluation of Global Precipitation Forecast"
In special collection of: International Symposium on Advances in Atmospheric Science and Information Technology, Beijing, China, 2007 p3-8

Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 2006:
"Initial Perturbations Based on the Ensemble Transform (ET) Technique in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System"
NCEP Office Note 432, September 2006,

Toth, Z., O. Talagrand, and Y. Zhu, 2006:
"The Attributes of Forecast Systems"
In book of: Predictability of Weather and Climate,
Ed.: T. N. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, Cambridge University Press, 584-595

Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, C. H. Bishop, X. Wang, 2006:
"Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP"
Tellus 58A, 28-44

Zhu, Y. 2005:
"Ensemble Forecast: A New Approach to Uncertainty and Predictability"
Advance in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 22, No. 6, 781-788

Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, Y. Zhu, 2005:
"A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems"
Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 133, 1076-1097

Zou, X., H. Liu, R. A. Anthes, H. Shao, J. C. Chang, and Y. Zhu, 2004:
"Impact of CHAMP Radio Occulation Observations on Global Analysis and Forecasts in the Absence of AMSU radiance Data"
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Janpan, Vol. 82, No. 1B, pp 533-549

Zhu, Y. 2004:
"Probabilistic Forecasts and Evaluations Based on a Global Ensemble Prediction System"
World Scientific Series on Meteorology of East Asia, Vol. 3 - Observation, Theory, and Modeling of Atmospheric Variability, 277-287

Toth, Z., O. Talagrand, G. Candille, and Y. Zhu, 2003:
"Probability and Ensemble Forecasts."
In book of: Forecast Verification: A practitioner's guide in atmospheric science.
Ed.: I. T. Jolliffe and D. B. Stephenson. Wiley, 137-163.

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Richardson, and K. Mylne 2002:
"On the Economic Value of Ensemble Based Weather Forecasts"
Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, 73-83

Toth. Z., Y. Zhu and T. Marchok, 2001:
"On the Ability of Ensembles to Distinguish Between Forecasts with Small and Large Uncertainty"
Weather and Forecasting, 16, 436-477

Tracton S., R. Kistler, Y. Zhu, J. Giraytys, 2001:
"NCEP/EMC observaing system experiment (OSE) on the effect of loss of Russian RAOB data"
NCEP Office Note 432, May 2001

Zou, X., B. Wang, H. Liu, R. Anthes, T. Matsumura and Y. Zhu, 2000:
"Use of GPS/MET Refraction Angles in 3D Variational Analysis"
Q. J. R. Meteorological Society., 126 3013-3040

Kalney, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell,
S. Saha, G. White, J. Wollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak,
K.C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, R. Jenne, D. Joseph, 1996:
"The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project"
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, 437-471

Baer, F. and Y. Zhu, 1992:
"Forecast Accuracy with Optimum Vertical Model Truncation"
Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2579-2591

Ruan, J., Y. Zhu, and C. Bao 1986:
"On the mean current structure in Typhoon."
Acta Oceanography of China, 35, 99-110

Bao, C., J. Ruan and Y. Zhu 1986:
"The influence of surround current by Fujiwhara effect and Bityphoon rotation."
Scientia Sinica, 30, 766-768

Bao, C., J. Ruan and Y. Zhu 1986:
"A study on the relationship between the rotation of binary typhoon and steering current."
Advance in Atmospheric Sciences, 3, 115-124

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 2008:
"Ensemble Based Probabilistic Forecast Verification"
Preprint of 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Jan. 20-24 2008, New Orleans, Louisiana

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 2002:
"Calibration of Pribabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts"
Submitted to Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilitistic Prediction
Jan. 13-17 2002, Orlando, FL

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 2001:
"Probabilistic Evaluation of QPF Forecast based on NCEP Global Ensemble"
Preprints of Seventh International Conference on Precipitation: Observation, Estimation, and Prediction of Precipitation Variability at All Scales,
June 30-July 3, 2001 Rockport, Maine

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 2001:
"Extreme Weather Events and Their Probabilistic Prediction by the NCEP Ensemble Forecast System"
Preprints of the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impact, and Responses,
14-19 January 2001, Albuquerque, NM

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 2000:
"Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts"
Preprints of the Annual GCIP PI Meeting
27-28 March 2000, Potomac, MD, Page: 1, 2,

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 1999:
"Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts"
Preprints of the 17th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
13-17 September 1999, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2,

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 1999:
"Objective Evaluation of QPF and PQPF Forecasts Based on NCEP Ensemble"
Contribation to Third International Scientific Conference on the
GlobalEnergy and Water Cycle, 16-19 June 1999 Beijing China. Page: 1, 2,

Yuejian Zhu, Eric Rogers, Perry Shafran and Stephen Lord, 1999:
"NAOS Experiments on the U. S. Upper Air Observing System Using
the NCEP Global and Regional Forecast system", Preprints of the
Third Symposium on Integrated Observing System, 10-15 January 1999,
Dallas, Texas. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4

Yuejian Zhu, Z. Toth, E. Kalnay, S. Tracton 1998:
"Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble"
Preprints of the Special Symposium on Hydrology
11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4,

Yuejian Zhu, Z. Toth, T. Marchok, S. Tracton and E. Kalnay, 1998:
"Verification of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts"
Preprints of the 16th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4,

Yuejian Zhu, G. Iyengar, Z. Toth, S. Tracton and T. Marchok, 1996:
"Objective Evaluation of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System"
Preprints of the 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
19-23 August 1996, Norfolk, Virginia. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4,

Yuejian Zhu, M. Kanamitsu and J. Derber, 1996:
"Comparison between OTH-B radar wind direction and NCEP analysis".
Preprints of the 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,
19-23 August 1996, Norfolk, Virginia. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2,

Yuejian Zhu, F. Baer and M. Kanamitsu, 1991:
"Appropriate Vertical Discretization of the NMC/MRF Model and Forecast Implications"
Preprints of the 9th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,
Sepetember 1991, Denver, CO. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4,

Lord, S. J., G. DiMego, B. Ferrier, Y. Lin, K. Mitchell, M. S. Tracton, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu, 2002:
"The NCEP EMC Activities for Deveolping Improved Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts"
Contribution to the 4th USWRP Science Symposium

Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iresell and R. Wobus, 2002:
"Does increased model resolution enhance predictability" Submitted to Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction

Toth, Z., and Y. Zhu, 2002:
"An evaluation of ensemble based forecast probability distributions" Submitted to Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction

Wobus, R., Z. Toth and Y. Zhu, 2002:
"Ensemble forecast bias and variance error correction"
Submitted to 16th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences.

Tracton, M.S., R. Kistler, and Y. Zhu, 2001:
"NCEP/EMC observing system experiment (OSE) on the effect of loss of Russian RAOB data"
Report to WWW/WMO, March 2001

Toth, Z., K. Musztacs, Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2001:
"An evaluation of ensemble based forecast probability distributions"
Contribution to XXVI EGS General Assembly, 25-30 March 2001, Nice, France

Toth, Z., Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2000:
"On the Economic Value of Ensemble Based Weather Forecasts"
Preprint to AMS conference on Probability and Statistic in the Atmospheric Science
8-11 May 2000, Ashville, NC.

Wobus, R., Z. Toth and Y. Zhu, 1999:
"An Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global ensemble"
Preprint to the 17th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
13-17 September 1999, Denver CO p212-213

Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, R. Wobus and Y. Zhu, 1999:
"The Impact of Model Resolution on the Performance of the NCEP global ensemble forecast system"
Preprint to the 13th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
13-17 September 1999, Denver CO p202-203

O'lenic, E., J. Hoopingarner, R. Higgins and Y. Zhu, 1998:
"In-Context Forecasts for Varying Time Scales and Reading out to Forecast Users"
Preprint to preceedings of the 23rd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
26-30 October 1998, Miami, FL p135-138

Doranl, J., W. Roeder, Z. Toth and Y. Zhu, 1998:
"The AFGWC/45WS/NCEP Ensemble Test: An Operational Point Verfication of Ensemble Precipitation Probability Forecast"
Preprint to the 12th AMS conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,
11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona. p279-285

Woollen, J. and Y. Zhu, 1997:
"The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Observation Archives, 1957-1997"
First WCRP International Conferance on Reanalysis,
27-31 October 1997, Silver Spring, MD, WMO/TD-No. 876 (WRCP-104), p402-405

Toth, Z., and Y. Zhu, 1997:
"On the Relative Merits of Using an Ensemble Versus a Single High Resolution Control Forecast"
International workshop on Predictability,
20-22 October 1997, ECMWF, United Kingdom

Toth, Z., Y. Zhu and etc... 1997:
"Probabilistic Weather Forecasts Based on the NCEP ensemble"
XXII General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society. Vienna, Austria,
21-25 April 1997, Annales Geophysicae, Part II; Supplement 11 to Vol. 15, C558.

Yu, T. W., M. Iredell and Y. Zhu 1996:
"The Impact of ERS-1 wind on NCEP Operational Numerical Weather Analysis and Forecasts"
Preprints to the 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
19-23 August 1996, Norfolk, VA, p276-277