Publications:

Guan, H., B. Cui and Y. Zhu, 2014:
"Improvement of Statistical Post-processing Using GEFS Reforecast Information"
Submitted to WAF (In process - Oct. 6 2014)

Su, X., H. Yuan, Y. Zhu, Y. Luo, and Y. Wang, 2014:
"Evaluation of TIGGE ensemble predictions of Northern Hemisphere summer precipitation during 2008-2012"
JGR (Accepted: June 3rd 2014, DOI: 10.1002/2014JD021733 )

Ma, J., Y. Zhu, D. Hou, X. Zhou and M. Pena, 2014:
"Ensemble Transform with 3D Rescaling Initialization Method"
Monthly Weather Review (Accepted: July 8 2014, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00367.1 )

Zhu Y., and Y. Luo, 2014:
"Precipitation Calibration Based on Frequency Matching Method (FMM)"
Weather and Forecasting (Accepted: May 26 2014, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00049.1)

Demargne, J., L. Wu, S. Regonda, J. Brown, H. Lee, M. He, D-J Seo, R. Hartman, M. Fresch, and Y. Zhu, 2014:
"The Science of NOAA.s Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service"
Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc. Vol. 96 1-21

Hamill, T. M., G. T. Bates, J. S. Whitaker, D. R. Murray, M. Fiorino, T. J. Galarneau, Jr., Y. Zhu, and W. Lapenta, 2013:
"NOAA's Second-generation Global Medium-range Ensemble Reforecast Data Set"
Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc. Vol. 95 1553-1565

Deng, G., Y. Zhou, L. Zhong, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, M. Wei, 2012:
"Effect of Initial Perturbation of Land Surface Processed on Tropical Cyclone Forecast"
Jaurnal of Tropical Meteorology, Vol. 18, No. 4, 412-421

Hou, D., M. Charles, Y. Luo, Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, R. Krzysztofowicz, Y. Lin, P. Xie, D-J. Seo, M. Pena and B. Cui, 2012:
"Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis at Fine Scales: Statistical Adjustment of STAGE IV towards CPC Gauge-Based Analysis"
Jaurnal of Hydrometeorology (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0140.1)

Ma, J., Y. Zhu, D. Wobus and P. Wang, 2012:
"An Effective Configuration of Ensemble Size and Horizontal Resolution for the NCEP GEFS"
Advance in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 29, No. 4, 782-794

Cui, B., Y. Zhu, Z. Toth and D. Hou, 2012:
"Development of Statistical Post-processor for NAEFS"
Submitted to Weather and Forecasting (in process)

Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu and D. Hou, 2012:
"Bias Correction For Global Ensemble Forecast"
Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 27 396-410

Ma, J., Y. Zhu, P. Wang and M. Duan 2011:
"A Review on the Developments of NCEP, ECMWF and CMC Global Ensemble Forecast System"
Transitions of Atmospheric Sciences (Chinese with English abstract), Vol. 34(3) P1-11

White, A., B. Colman, G. Carter, M. Ralph, R. Webb, D. Brandon, C. King, P. Neiman, D. Gottas, I. Jankov, K. Brill, Y. Zhu, K. Cook, H. Buehner, H. Opitz, D. Reynolds, and L. Schick, 2011:
"NOAA's Rapid Response to the Howard A. Hanson Dam Flood Risk Management Crisis"
Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, 189-207

Hou, D., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, W. Yang and R. Wobus, 2010:
"A Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation Scheme Representing Model- Related Uncertainties in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System"
Submitted to Tellus-A (Dec. 2010)

Zhu, Y., and J. Ma, 2010:
"Predictability, Probabilistic Forecasting and Ensemble Prediction System"
In book of: Lectur Notes on Numerical Weather Prediction
Ed.: WMO Regional Trainning Centre, NUIST, China 2010, P43-60

Zhu, Y. 2010:
"Prediction Science"
Transitions of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 33 (3) P266-270

Demargne, J., J. Brown, Y. Liu, D. J. Seo, L. Wu, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu, 2010:
"Diagnostic Verification of Hydrometeorological and Hydrologic Ensemble"
Atmospheric Science Letter, Vol. 11 (2) P114-122

Snyder, A. D., Z. Pu, and Y. Zhu, 2010:
"Tracking and Verification of East Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the NCEP Global Ensemble: Case Studies during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses"
Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 25 1397-1411

Wei, M., Z. Toth and Y. Zhu, 2010:
"Analysis Differences and Error Variance Estimates from Muilt-Contre Analysis Data"
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal (AMOJ) Vol. 59 25-34

Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 2008:
"Initial Perturbations Based on the Ensemble Transform (ET) Technique in the NCEP Global Operational Forecast System"
Tellus 59A, 62-79

Zhu, Y. 2007:
"Objective Evaluation of Global Precipitation Forecast"
In special collection of: International Symposium on Advances in Atmospheric Science and Information Technology, Beijing, China, 2007 p3-8

Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 2006:
"Initial Perturbations Based on the Ensemble Transform (ET) Technique in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System"
NCEP Office Note 432, September 2006,

Toth, Z., O. Talagrand, and Y. Zhu, 2006:
"The Attributes of Forecast Systems"
In book of: Predictability of Weather and Climate,
Ed.: T. N. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, Cambridge University Press, 584-595

Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, C. H. Bishop, X. Wang, 2006:
"Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP"
Tellus 58A, 28-44

Zhu, Y. 2005:
"Ensemble Forecast: A New Approach to Uncertainty and Predictability"
Advance in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 22, No. 6, 781-788

Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, Y. Zhu, 2005:
"A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems"
Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 133, 1076-1097

Zou, X., H. Liu, R. A. Anthes, H. Shao, J. C. Chang, and Y. Zhu, 2004:
"Impact of CHAMP Radio Occulation Observations on Global Analysis and Forecasts in the Absence of AMSU radiance Data"
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Janpan, Vol. 82, No. 1B, pp 533-549

Zhu, Y. 2004:
"Probabilistic Forecasts and Evaluations Based on a Global Ensemble Prediction System"
World Scientific Series on Meteorology of East Asia, Vol. 3 - Observation, Theory, and Modeling of Atmospheric Variability, 277-287

Toth, Z., O. Talagrand, G. Candille, and Y. Zhu, 2003:
"Probability and Ensemble Forecasts."
In book of: Forecast Verification: A practitioner's guide in atmospheric science.
Ed.: I. T. Jolliffe and D. B. Stephenson. Wiley, 137-163.

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Richardson, and K. Mylne 2002:
"On the Economic Value of Ensemble Based Weather Forecasts"
Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, 73-83

Toth. Z., Y. Zhu and T. Marchok, 2001:
"The Use of Ensembles to Identify Forecasts with Small and Large Uncertainty"
Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 16, 436-477

Tracton S., R. Kistler, Y. Zhu, J. Giraytys, 2001:
"NCEP/EMC observaing system experiment (OSE) on the effect of loss of Russian RAOB data"
NCEP Office Note 432, May 2001

Zou, X., B. Wang, H. Liu, R. Anthes, T. Matsumura and Y. Zhu, 2000:
"Use of GPS/MET Refraction Angles in 3D Variational Analysis"
Q. J. R. Meteorological Society., Vol. 126 3013-3040

Kalney, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell,
S. Saha, G. White, J. Wollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak,
K.C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, R. Jenne, D. Joseph, 1996:
"The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project"
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, 437-471

Baer, F. and Y. Zhu, 1992:
"Forecast Accuracy with Optimum Vertical Model Truncation"
Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 120, 2579-2591

Ruan, J., Y. Zhu, and C. Bao 1986:
"On the mean current structure in Typhoon."
Acta Oceanography of China, 35, 99-110

Bao, C., J. Ruan and Y. Zhu 1986:
"A study on the relationship between the rotation of binary typhoon and steering current."
Advance in Atmospheric Sciences, 3, 115-124

Bao, C., J. Ruan and Y. Zhu 1985:
"The influence of surround current by Fujiwhara effect and Bityphoon rotation."
Scientia Sinica, 30, 766-768

Drafted manuscript:
Ma, J., Y. Zhu and P. Wang, 2011:
"What is an Optimum Configuration for Operational Ensemble Forecast System?"
Submitted to Monthly Weather Review (March 7th 2011 -Rejected)

Documentations:
Cui, B., and Y. Zhu, 2013:
NAEFS-SPP: Section 6: Bias correction and statistical down-scaling for 2-meter dew-point temperature and relative humidity

Zhu, Y., 2011:
Documentation for WMO CBS ET-EPS report

Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2010:
NAEFS-SPP: Section 5: Statistical down-scaling for Wind, Tmax and Tmin

Zhu, Y., R. Wobus, M. Wei, D. Hou, B. Cui and Q. Liu, 2009:
NCEP GEFS User Guide (v1.00 - draft)

Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2007:
NAEFS-SPP: Section 4: Statistical down-scaling for NAEFS ensemble forecasts

Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2007:
NAEFS-SPP: Section 3: NAEFS mean, spread and probability forecasts

Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2007:
NAEFS-SPP: Section 2: New ensemble forecasts from hybrid GFS and GEFS bias corrected forecasts

Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2007:
NAEFS-SPP: Section 1: Summary of GFS bias correction

First author: ( Conference Preprints )
Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 2008:
"Ensemble Based Probabilistic Forecast Verification"
Preprint of 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Jan. 20-24 2008, New Orleans, Louisiana

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 2002:
"Calibration of Pribabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts"
Submitted to Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilitistic Prediction
Jan. 13-17 2002, Orlando, FL

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 2001:
"Probabilistic Evaluation of QPF Forecast based on NCEP Global Ensemble"
Preprints of Seventh International Conference on Precipitation: Observation, Estimation, and Prediction of Precipitation Variability at All Scales,
June 30-July 3, 2001 Rockport, Maine

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 2001:
"Extreme Weather Events and Their Probabilistic Prediction by the NCEP Ensemble Forecast System"
Preprints of the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impact, and Responses,
14-19 January 2001, Albuquerque, NM

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 2000:
"Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts"
Preprints of the Annual GCIP PI Meeting
27-28 March 2000, Potomac, MD, Page: 1, 2,

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 1999:
"Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts"
Preprints of the 17th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
13-17 September 1999, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2,

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth, 1999:
"Objective Evaluation of QPF and PQPF Forecasts Based on NCEP Ensemble"
Contribation to Third International Scientific Conference on the
GlobalEnergy and Water Cycle, 16-19 June 1999 Beijing China. Page: 1, 2,

Yuejian Zhu, Eric Rogers, Perry Shafran and Stephen Lord, 1999:
"NAOS Experiments on the U. S. Upper Air Observing System Using
the NCEP Global and Regional Forecast system",
Preprints of the
Third Symposium on Integrated Observing System, 10-15 January 1999,
Dallas, Texas. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4

Yuejian Zhu, Z. Toth, E. Kalnay, S. Tracton 1998:
"Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble"
Preprints of the Special Symposium on Hydrology
11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4,

Yuejian Zhu, Z. Toth, T. Marchok, S. Tracton and E. Kalnay, 1998:
"Verification of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts"
Preprints of the 16th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4,

Yuejian Zhu, G. Iyengar, Z. Toth, S. Tracton and T. Marchok, 1996:
"Objective Evaluation of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System"
Preprints of the 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
19-23 August 1996, Norfolk, Virginia. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4,

Yuejian Zhu, M. Kanamitsu and J. Derber, 1996:
"Comparison between OTH-B radar wind direction and NCEP analysis".
Preprints of the 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,
19-23 August 1996, Norfolk, Virginia. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2,

Yuejian Zhu, F. Baer and M. Kanamitsu, 1991:
"Appropriate Vertical Discretization of the NMC/MRF Model and Forecast Implications"
Preprints of the 9th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,
Sepetember 1991, Denver, CO. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4,

Co-author: ( Conference Preprints )
Guan, H., Y. Zhu and B. Cui, 2014:
"Recent Development to Improve NAEFS SPP"
Preprints, 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3-6 Feb. 2014

Liu, Q., S. J. Lord, N. Surgi, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Z. Toth and T. Marchok, 2006:
"Hurricane Relocation in Global Ensemble Forecast System"
Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P5.13.

Lord, S. J., G. DiMego, B. Ferrier, Y. Lin, K. Mitchell, M. S. Tracton, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu, 2002:
"The NCEP EMC Activities for Deveolping Improved Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts"
Contribution to the 4th USWRP Science Symposium

Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iresell and R. Wobus, 2002:
"Does increased model resolution enhance predictability" Submitted to Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction

Toth, Z., and Y. Zhu, 2002:
"An evaluation of ensemble based forecast probability distributions" Submitted to Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction

Wobus, R., Z. Toth and Y. Zhu, 2002:
"Ensemble forecast bias and variance error correction"
Submitted to 16th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences.

Tracton, M.S., R. Kistler, and Y. Zhu, 2001:
"NCEP/EMC observing system experiment (OSE) on the effect of loss of Russian RAOB data"
Report to WWW/WMO, March 2001

Toth, Z., K. Musztacs, Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2001:
"An evaluation of ensemble based forecast probability distributions"
Contribution to XXVI EGS General Assembly, 25-30 March 2001, Nice, France

Toth, Z., Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2000:
"On the Economic Value of Ensemble Based Weather Forecasts"
Preprint to AMS conference on Probability and Statistic in the Atmospheric Science
8-11 May 2000, Ashville, NC.

Wobus, R., Z. Toth and Y. Zhu, 1999:
"An Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global ensemble"
Preprint to the 17th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
13-17 September 1999, Denver CO p212-213

Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, R. Wobus and Y. Zhu, 1999:
"The Impact of Model Resolution on the Performance of the NCEP global ensemble forecast system"
Preprint to the 13th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
13-17 September 1999, Denver CO p202-203

O'lenic, E., J. Hoopingarner, R. Higgins and Y. Zhu, 1998:
"In-Context Forecasts for Varying Time Scales and Reading out to Forecast Users"
Preprint to preceedings of the 23rd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
26-30 October 1998, Miami, FL p135-138

Doranl, J., W. Roeder, Z. Toth and Y. Zhu, 1998:
"The AFGWC/45WS/NCEP Ensemble Test: An Operational Point Verfication of Ensemble Precipitation Probability Forecast"
Preprint to the 12th AMS conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,
11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona. p279-285

Woollen, J. and Y. Zhu, 1997:
"The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Observation Archives, 1957-1997"
First WCRP International Conferance on Reanalysis,
27-31 October 1997, Silver Spring, MD, WMO/TD-No. 876 (WRCP-104), p402-405

Toth, Z., and Y. Zhu, 1997:
"On the Relative Merits of Using an Ensemble Versus a Single High Resolution Control Forecast"
International workshop on Predictability,
20-22 October 1997, ECMWF, United Kingdom

Toth, Z., Y. Zhu and etc... 1997:
"Probabilistic Weather Forecasts Based on the NCEP ensemble"
XXII General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society. Vienna, Austria,
21-25 April 1997, Annales Geophysicae, Part II; Supplement 11 to Vol. 15, C558.

Yu, T. W., M. Iredell and Y. Zhu 1996:
"The Impact of ERS-1 wind on NCEP Operational Numerical Weather Analysis and Forecasts"
Preprints to the 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
19-23 August 1996, Norfolk, VA, p276-277