GEFSv12 OFFICIAL EVALUATION

This webpage includes relevant links to the official evaluation of the
NCEP GEFSv12 organized by the NCEP/EMC Model Evaluation Group (MEG).
*Please check back regularly for updates*
Last update: Wednesday 23 September 2020


TIMELINE

Evaluation Period
(Start - End)		 Recommendations
from Field Due		 NCEP Director
Briefing		 Code Handoff
to NCO		 IT Test Period
(Start - End)		 Implementation
Date
3/2/20 - 4/10/20 4/27/20 5/5/20 5/21/20 8/18/20 - 9/17/20 9/23/20

SUMMARY

GEFSv12 SOO Team Evaluation Overview - Presented by NWS SOO Team (4/16/20 MEG Meeting)
Model Evaluation Group (MEG) GEFSv12 Evaluation Overview - Presented by Alicia Bentley/Geoff Manikin (4/23/20 MEG Meeting)
GEFSv12 Field Evaluations (Waves/Aerosols/Weeks 2-4) - Presented by Henrique Alves/Deanna Spindler/Jeff McQueen/Shannon Shields (4/30/20 MEG Meeting)
GEFSv12 Field Evaluations (Days 1-10 Weather) - Presented by Alicia Bentley (4/30/20 MEG Meeting)
GEFSv12 CPC Evaluation Overview (Weeks 2-4) - Presented by Matthew Rosencrans (5/14/20 MEG Meeting)
NCEP/EMC Change Configuration Board (CCB) Presentation on GEFSv12 - Presented by Yuejian Zhu/Geoff Manikin (5/1/20 CCB Meeting)
NCEP OD Science and Decisional Brief on GEFSv12 - Presented by Vijay Tallapragada/Geoff Manikin (5/5/20 OD Briefing)
***NCEP OD Decision: APPROVED***

GEFSv12 Service Change Notice - National Weather Service Headquarters (8/20/20)

INFORMATION

Kickoff to the GEFSv12 Official Evaluation - Presented by Geoff Manikin (2/27/20 MEG Meeting)
GEFSv12 Official Evaluation Webpages - Presented by Alicia Bentley (2/27/20 MEG Meeting)
Overview of GEFSv12 Verification Statistics - Presented by Alicia Bentley (3/12/20 MEG Meeting)
GEFSv12 Retrospective Case Studies: Excessive QPF - Presented by Shannon Shields (3/12/20 MEG Meeting)
GEFSv12 Retrospective Case Studies: Winter Storms - Presented by Alicia Bentley (3/19/20 MEG Meeting)
GEFSv12 Retrospective Case Studies: Tropical Cyclones - Presented by Shannon Shields/Alicia Bentley (3/26/20 MEG Meeting)
GEFSv12 Retrospective Case Studies: Severe Weather - Presented by Logan Dawson (4/2/20 MEG Meeting)
GEFSv12 Retrospective Case Studies: Low Skill/Dropouts - Presented by Shannon Shields (4/2/20 MEG Meeting)
GEFSv12 Retrospective Case Studies: Cold-Air Outbreaks - Presented by Geoff Manikin (4/2/20 MEG Meeting)

DATA

GEFSv12 Data - Available on Para NOMADS

RETROSPECTIVES

GEFSv12-Weather (Days 0-10) Retrospective Case Studies - Maintained by NCEP/EMC MEG

VERIFICATION

GEFSv12-Weather (Days 0-10) Verification Statistics - Maintained by Alicia Bentley/Yan Luo
GEFSv12-Weather Tropical Cyclone Verification Statistics - Maintained by Jiayi Peng
GEFSv12-Waves Buoy Verification - Maintained by Deanna Spindler/Todd Spindler
GEFSv12-Waves Satellite Verification - Maintained by Deanna Spindler/Todd Spindler
GEFSv12-Aerosols (Days 0-5) Verification - Maintained by Partha Bhattacharjee

NCEP/EMC Model Evaluation Group (MEG) - Maintained by NCEP/EMC MEG
NCEP/EMC MEG Past Presentations - Available to NOAA email addresses only


Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each slightly different (i.e., perturbed) from the original forecast, in order to capture the range of possible forecast outcomes.