6th NAEFS Workshop Program


Tuesday (May 1st 2012)


Session 1: 8:30 – 12:00 PM


8:30-8:45. Welcome by CAPT Erica Sauer, Fleet Numerical Commanding Officer

8:45-9:00. Logistics and Announcements - Chuck Skupniewicz


Topic: Ensemble system development - current status and future plan from each center

Chair: Chuck Skupniewicz

9:00 -9:30. NCEP GEFS current status and future plan – Dingchen Hou

9:30-10:00. FNMOC GEFS current status and future plans -- Michael Sestak

10:00-10:30. MSC-CMC GEPS current status and future plans - Martin Charron

10:30-10:50 Break


Topic: Data exchange and dissemination from each center

Chair: Michael Sestak

10:50-11:30. NAEFS+FNMOC real time data exchange (combined with CMC) – Lewis Poulin to lead this with contributions from Rebecca Cosgrove and Dick Wobus

11:30-12:00. Plan for NAEFS data exchange – frequency, resolution and additional parameters – Dick Wobus to lead this with contributions from CMC (Lewis Poulin), MMC and FNMOC


Lunch break: 12:00 – 2:00 PM


Session 2:  2:00 – 5:20 PM


Topic: NAEFS post process (development and plan)

Chair: Andre Methot

2:00-2:20. NAEFS post process at NCEP – Bo Cui and Hong Guan

2:20-2:40. New daily climate mean and stdv - Comparison between Fourier modes and triangular filtering – Bo Yang and Yuejian Zhu

2:40-3:00. MDL: EKDMOD – John Wagner and Bruce Veenhuis (Remote presentation)

3:00-3:20. On the use of NAEFS data for public forecast generation - Stephane Beauregard

3:20-3:40. Use of reforecast for future calibration methods – Stephane Beauregard


3:40-4:00. Break


Topics: NAEFS product generation, distribution and application

Chair: Yuejian Zhu/Martin Montero

4:00-4:20. NAEFS product generation and application – Dingchen Hou

4:20-4:40. Canadian REPS products – Ron Frenette

4:40-5:00. Development of an Extreme Forecast Index: Preliminary results – Hai Lin

5:00-5:20. NAEFS application at Mexico – Martin Montero

Wednesday (May 2nd 2012)


Session 3: 8:30 – 11:30 PM


Topics: NAEFS – LAM experiments and plan

Chair: Lewis Poulin

8:30-9:00. NCEP SREF (status and plan) – Jun Du (Remote presentation)

9:00-9:30.  MSC-CMC REPS current status and future plans - Martin Charron

9:30-10:00. NAEFS LAM – domain, common grid, variables and format – Martin Sharron, Jun Du (and Martin Montero)


Topics: Wave ensembles – products and future plan

Chair: Lewis Pollin

10:00-10:30. The status, performance and plans of wave ensemble – joint presentation of NCEP, FNMOC and CMC – Paul Wittmann (FNMOC), Henrique Alves (NCEP) and Natacha Bernier (CMC)


10:30-10:50. Break


Topics: Extended range forecast (include seasonal forecast, NMME discussion?)

Chair: Martin Charron

10:50-11:10. Week-2 forecast from NAEFS at CPC/NCEP – Dan Collins

11:10-11:30. Extended range ensemble forecast experiments – Malaquias Pena

11:30-11:50. MSC-CMC Monthly EPS forecast current status and future plans – Hai Lin

11:50-12:10. NMME at NCEP – Malaquias Pena, Qing Zhang and Jin Huang

12:10-12:30. Introduction of CanSIPS:  Canadian Seasonal & Inter annual Prediction System – Normand Gagnon (and Bertrand Denis)

Lunch break: 12:30 – 2:00 PM

Session 4: 2:00 – 5:00 PM (one break)

Topics: User Workshop

Chair: Scott Sandgathe

2:00-2:30. User Surveys and Product Discussion - Scott Sandgathe

2:30-2:50. Watchfloor of the Future - Fleet Weather Center, Norfolk

2:50-3:10. AFWA (untitled) - Steve Rugg

3:10-3:30. Ensembles in ship routing (OTSR) - LCDR Keefer, Fleet Weather Center, San Diego

3:30-3:45. Break

3:45-4:15. Products and Training: Rich Grumm (Remote presentation)

Topics:  Partners

Chair: Scott Sandgathe

4:15-4:45. THORPEX Science Plan - Malaquias Pena Mendez (Edmund Chang/Zoltan Toth)

4:45-5:00. Discussion: Next Steps – Dave McCarren

7:00-10:00  Sunset Beach Party at Carmel Beach

Thursday (May 3rd 2012)

Session 5: 8:30 – 12:20 PM

Topic:  Partners (continued)

Chair: Scott Sandgathe

8:30-9:00. Presentation from UKMet – Warren Tennant

9:00-9:15. Community Interactions – Brian Etherton

Topic: Ensemble verification – real time evaluation, exchange results between centers

Chair: Dingchen Hou

9:15-9:45. Ensemble verification – Yuejian Zhu

9:45-10:15. Week-2 forecast verification at CPC – Dan Collins

10 :15 -10:30. Break

10:30-10:50. WMO GPC EPS verification exchange – Andrι Mιthot

Topic: Evaluation for NAEFS inclusion of FNMOC ensemble

Chair: Dave McCarren

10:50-11:20. Report on real time evaluation of NAEFS inclusion of FNMOC ensemble – Bo Cui/Yan Lou

11:20-11:50. Report on real time evaluation of NAEFS inclusion of FNMOC ensemble – week-2 evaluation from CPC – Dan Collins

11:50-12:20. Report on real time evaluation of NAEFS inclusion of FNMOC ensemble – verification against observations - Normand Gagnon

Lunch break: 12:20 – 2:30 PM

Session 4: 2:30 PM – end of workshop

2:30-3:00. Smart Voyage Planning (SVP) Model Sensitivity Analysis using Ocean and Atmospheric Models including Ensemble Methods – Scott Miller

Topics: NAEFS open discussion and future plan

3:00-5:00. NAEFS workshop open discussion

Leaders: Yuejian Zhu jointly with Andrι Mιthot, Martin Montero (and Mike Sestak)

- NAEFS operational data related issues – Lewis Pollin

- Recommendation for post process and data distribution – Lewis Pollin

- NAEFS future plan and conclusion – Yuejian Zhu

End of Workshop