5th NAEFS Workshop Agenda 

Jiutepec, Morelos, México 

May 17-19, 2010

Wednesday May 19, 2010
9:00-9:15 Welcome Hosting Institutions (P. Martínez, A. Vázquez)
    Introduction R. Lobato (IMTA), Yuejian Zhu (NCEP)
Session One: Monday 9:15 – 12:30 NAEFS development and data exchange 
9:15-10:30 Recent developments, upgrades and future plans 
Session chair: (A. Methot)
FNMOC   M. Sestek
MSC P. Houtekmar
NCEP Yuejian Zhu
Follow up discussion
10:30 – 10:45 Break
10:45– 11:30 Inclusion of FNMOC ensemble
Session chair: (M. Peña)
MSC Evaluation against observations, Normand Cagnon
NCEP Evaluations against best analysis, Bo Cui
Follow up discussion
11:30 – 12:30 Data Exchange and Dissemination
Session chair: (M. Sestak)
MSC L. Poulin, R. Cosgrove & M Sestak
NCEP R. Wobus
NOMADS data distribution R. Wobus
Follow up discussion
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch Break
Session Two: Monday 13:30 – 16:00 TIGGE-GIFS, NAEFS-LAM, NAEFS extended
13:30 – 14:00     TIGGE-GIFS
Session chair: (J. Du)
NCEP Cyclone tracks and CXML format data exchange, D. Wobus
MSC Cyclone track prototyping from Canada, M. Charron
Follow up discussion
14:00 – 15:00 NAEFS-LAM experiment and operation
Session chair: (N. Cagnow)
NCEP SREF plans for NAEFS-LAM, Jun Du
MSC REP status, future upgrades, plans, M. Charron
MSC REP file formats, size and exchanges, L. Poulin
Follow up discussion
15:00 – 16:00 NAEFS extended forecast, long range ensemble and merging
Session chair: (A. Hernández)
MSC Monthly forecast, M. Charron
NCEP Week 2 forecast, development and plans, D. Collins
NCEP Intraseasonal study, M. Peña
Follow up discussion
16:00-19:00 Lecture and training
Ensemble Forecasting, basic concepts   Carolle Marchand, MSC
High impact tropical weather Chis Thorncroft
19:00-20:00 Icebreaker
Tuesday May 18, 2010
Session Three: Tuesday 8:30 – 12:30 Products and applications and verifications
8:30 – 10:30 NAEFS Products (include derived products)
Session chair: (R. Prieto)
NCEP Bias correction and downscaling, B. Cui
  Precipitation analysis, Dingchen Hou
  Week-2 products, Dan Collins
FNMOC/NCEP Wave ensemble driving by global ensemble winds, Mike Sestek/Hendrik Tolman
MSC EPS based wave forecasting, André Methot
  Day 6 and 7 Canadian automated public forecast, B. Archambault
Follow up discussion
10:30 – 10:45 Break
10:45 – 11:45 NAEFS verification and discussion
Session chair: (Y. Zhu)
NCEP Performance metrics, Yuejian Zhu
MSC Verification of week-2 products, D. Collins
FNMOC Verification, Mike Sestek
Follow up discussion about the strategic way of ensuring consistency of NAEFS products
11:45 – 12:15 NUOPC Status and plan (include requirement) D. McCarren
12:15 – 13:30 Lunch Break
Session Four: Tuesday 13:30 – 16:00
13:30 – 16:00 Usage of NAEFS products in Mexico, Central and South America
Session chair: (M. Rosengaus)
CPTEC D. Herdies
MSC Zhiming Kang
SMN Alberto Hernandez Unzón
IMTA Ricardo Prieto/René Lobato
Follow up discussion
16:00-19:00 Lecture and training
Ensemble Forecasting: Products and applications   Normand Cagnon, MSC
Predictability and ensemble generation Eugenia Kalnay, UMD
Wednesday May 19, 2010
Session Five: Wednesday 8:30 – 12:30 NAEFS Future Direction
8:30-10:30 Product design improvements, new products
Session chair: (D. Herdies)
NCEP Future coupling GEFS for extended forecasts, M. Peña
  Real time forecasts/hindcasts for extended forecast calibration, Y. Zhu
  Stochastic Physics – THORPEX proposal, D. Hou
  Future post-process – THORPEX proposal, B.Cui
ESRL Pseudo-precipitation – THORPEX proposal, H. Yuan
10:30-10:45 Break
10:45 -12:30 Discussion on the draft document about the next 3-5 year plan to update NAEFS, L. Crevier
Conclusion/summary: André Method