Guan H., and Y. Zhu, 2017: Development of Verification Methodology for Extreme Weather Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 32, 479-491. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0123.1

Zhou, X., Y. Zhu, D. Hou, Y. Luo, J. Peng, and R. Wobus, 2017: Performance of the New NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System in a Parallel Experiment. Wea. Forecasting. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-17-0023.1


Qian W.H., N. Jiang and J. Du, 2016: Reply to "Comments on `Incorporating the effects of moisture into a dynamical parameter: moist vorticity and moist divergence'". Wea. and Forecasting, 31, 1397-1405.

Qian W.H., J. Huang, and J. Du, 2016: Examination of Hurricane Sandy’s (2012) Structure and Intensity Evolution from Full-field and Anomaly-field Analyses. Tellus A, 68, in press

Qian W.H., N. Jiang, and J. Du, 2016: Seven anomalous synoptic patterns of regional heavy rain in eastern China. Meteorological Monthly, 42(6): 674-685.

Qian W. H., N. Jiang, and J. Du, 2016: Anomaly-based weather analysis versus traditional total-field-based weather analysis for depicting regional heavy rain events. Wea. and Forecasting, 31, 71-93.

Zhou B., L. Jiang, and J. Du, 2016: Aviation weather and model-based operational forecasts of low visibility and fog. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 6(2), 29-41.

Qian W. H., T. Yu, and J. Du, 2016: A unified approach to trace surface heat and cold events by using height anomaly. Climate Dynamics, 46(5-6):1647-1664.

Du J., and B. Zhou, 2016: Ensemble fog prediction and ensemble forecast verification. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 6(3):41-47.


Guan, H., B. Cui and Y. Zhu, 2015: Improvement of Statistical Postprocessing Using GEFS Reforecast Information. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 841–854.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00126.1

Robertson A, A. Kumar, M. Peña, F. Vitart 2015: Improving and Promoting Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. To appear in Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Majumdar S., E. Chang, M. Peña, R. Tatusko, Z. Toth, 2015: planning the next decade of coordinated U.S. research on minutes-to-seasonal prediction of high-impact weather. To appear in Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.

Tang S., D. Wang, J. Du, and J. Zhou, 2015: The experiment of hybrid ensemble forecast approach in short-range forecast for South China rainstorm. J. Appl. Meteor. Science, 26(6): 669-679.

Li J., J. Du, and C. Chen, 2015: Applications of a frequency-matching method to ensemble precipitation forecasts. Meteorological Monthly, 41(6): 674-684.

Huang J., J. Du, and W. H. Qian, 2015: A comparison between Generalized Beta-Advection Model and classical Beta-Advection Model in predicting and understanding unusual typhoon tracks in eastern china seas. Wea. and Forecasting, 30, 771-792.

Qian W. H., J. Du, X. Shan and N. Jiang, 2015: Incorporating the effects of moisture into a dynamical parameter: moist vorticity and moist divergence. Wea. and Forecasting, 30, 1411-1428.

Li J., J. Du and Y. Liu, 2015: A comparison of initial condition-, multi-physics- and stochastic physics-based ensembles in predicting Beijing excessive storm rain event. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 73(1):50-71.


su, X., H. Yuan, Y. Zhu,Y. Luo, and Y. Wang, 2014: evaluation of TIGGE ensemble predictions of Northern Hemisphere summer precipitation during 2008-2012i. J. Geophys. res, DOI: 10.1002/2014JD021733 )

Ma, J.,Y. Zhu,D. Hou,X. Zhou and M. Pena, 2014: ensemble Transform with 3D Rescaling Initialization Method. Mon. Wea. Rev.,142, 4053–4073.

Zhu Y.,and Y. Luo, 2014: precipitation Calibration Based on Frequency Matching Method(FMM). Weather and Forecasting (Accepted: May 26 2014, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00049.1)

Demargne, J., L. Wu, S. Regonda, J. Brown, H. Lee, M. He, D-J Seo, R. Hartman, M. Fresch, and Y. Zhu, 2014: the Science of NOAA.s Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc. Vol. 96 1-21

Peña, M. and Z. Toth 2014: estimation of analysis and forecast error variances. Tellus A 2014, 66, 21767

Saha, S. et al 2014: the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J. Clim. 27, 2185-2208

Kirtman et al 2014: the North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-interannual Predictions; Phase-2 towrds Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 95, 585-601.

Hou et al 2014: climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis at Fine Scales: Statistical Adjustment of Stage IV toward CPC Gauge-Based Analysis. J. Hydromet. 15, 2542–2557.

Du, J., and W.-H. Qian 2014: Three revolutions in weather forecasting. advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 4(6):13-26.

Du, J., and J. Li, 2014: Application of ensemble methodology to heavy rain research and prediction. advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 4(5):6-20.

Du, J., and Z.-M. Kang, 2014: A survey on forecasters view about uncertainty in weather forecasts. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 4(1):58-67.

Du J., R. Yu, C. Cui, and J. Li, 2014: Using a mesoscale ensemble to predict forecast error and perform targeted observation. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 33(1):83-91.

Du J., R. Grumm, and G. Deng, 2014: Ensemble anomaly forecasting to predicting extreme weather demonstrated by extremely heavy rain event in Beijing. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 38(4): 685-699.

Li J., J. Du, and C. Chen, 2014: An introduction and analysis to Frequency- or area-Matching method applied to precipitation forecast bias correction. meteorological Monthly, 40(5): 580-588.

Li J., J. Du, D.-L. Zhang, C. Cui and Y. Liao, 2014: Ensemble-based analysis and sensitivity of mesoscale forecasts of a vortex over southwest China. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 140:766-782.


Hamill, T. M., G. T. Bates, J. S. Whitaker, D. R. Murray, M. Fiorino, T. J. Galarneau, Jr., Y. Zhu, and W. Lapenta, 2013: NOAA's Second-generation Global Medium-range Ensemble Reforecast Data Set. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc. Vol. 95 1553-1565.

Chang, E., M. Peña, and Z. Toth, 2013: International Research Collaboration in High-Impact Weather Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, ES149–ES151.

Becker, E., H. Dool, and M. Peña, 2013: Short-Term Climate Extremes: Prediction Skill and Predictability. J. Climate, 26, 512–531.


Deng, G., Y. Zhou, L. Zhong, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, M. Wei, 2012: Effect of Initial Perturbation of Land Surface Processed on Tropical Cyclone Forecast. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, Vol. 18, No. 4, 412-421

Hou, D., M. Charles, Y. Luo, Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, R. Krzysztofowicz, Y. Lin, P. Xie, D-J. Seo, M. Pena and B. Cui, 2012: Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis at Fine Scales: Statistical Adjustment of STAGE IV towards CPC Gauge-Based Analysis. Journal of Hydrometeorology (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0140.1)

Ma, J., Y. Zhu, D. Wobus and P. Wang, 2012: An Effective Configuration of Ensemble Size and Horizontal Resolution for the NCEP GEFS. Advance in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 29, No. 4, 782-794

Cui, B.,Y. Zhu, Z. Toth and D. Hou, 2012: Development of Statistical Post-processor for NAEFS. Submitted to Weather and Forecasting (in process)

Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu and D. Hou, 2012: Bias Correction For Global Ensemble Forecast. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 27 396-410

Brown, J., D.-J. Seo, and J. Du, 2012: Verification of precipitation forecasts from nCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF) with reference to hydrologic forecasting in lumped basins. J. of Hydrometeorology, 13, 808-836.

Clark, A.J. and co-authors including J. Du, 2012: An Overview of the 2010 Hazardous weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring Experiment. BAMS, 93, 55-74.

Duan Y., J. Gong, J. Du et. al, 2012: An overview of Beijing 2008 olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP). BMAS, 93, 1-24.

Wu, Z., H. Xu, D. Wang, Q. Xing, F. Wang, J. Du, T. Feng, Y. Liu, and J. Yin, 2012: analysis of the heavy rain process on June 19-20, 2010 in southern China by uisng a multi-model mesoscale super-ensemble forecasting system. J. of Tropical meteorology, 28(5), 653-663.

Zhou, B., J. Du, I. Gultepe, and G. Dimego, 2012: Forecast of low visibility and fog from NCEP: Current status and efforts. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 169(5-6), 895-909.


Ma, J., Y. Zhu, P. Wang and M. Duan 2011: A Review on the Developments of NCEP, ECMWF and CMC Global Ensemble Forecast System. Transitions of Atmospheric Sciences (Chinese with English abstract), Vol. 34(3) P1-11.

White, A., B. Colman, G. Carter, M. Ralph, R. Webb, D. Brandon, C. King, P. Neiman, D. Gottas, I. Jankov, K. Brill, y. Zhu, K. Cook, H. Buehner, H. Opitz, D. Reynolds, and L. Schick, 2011: NOAA's Rapid Response to the Howard A. Hanson Dam Flood Risk Management Crisis. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, 189-207.

Hou, D., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, W. Yang and R. Wobus, 2011: A Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation Scheme Representing Model-Related Uncertainties in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. Submitted to Tellus-A (Dec. 2010)

Clark, A. J., J. S. Kain, D. J. Stensrud, M. Xue, F. Kong, M. C. Coniglio, K. W. Thomas, y. Wang, K. Brewster, J. Gao, S. J. Weiss, D. Bright, and J. Du, 2011: Probabilistic precipitation forecast skill as a function of ensemble size and spatial scale in a convection-allowing ensemble, Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1410-1418.

Du, J., and B. Zhou, 2011: A dynamical performance-ranking method for predicting individual ensemble member's performance and its application to ensemble averaging. mon. Wea. Rev., 129(10), 3284-3303.

Kunii, M., K. Saito, H. Seko, M. Hara, T. Hara, M. Yamaguchi, J. Gong, M. Charron, J. Du, Y. Wang, and D. Chen, 2011. Verification and intercomparison of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems in the Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and development Project. Tellus A, 63, 531-549, DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00512.x

Wang, D., J. Du, and C. Liu, 2011: Recognizing and dealing with uncertainty in weather-related forecasts. Meteorological Monthly, 37(4), 385-392.


Zhu, Y. 2010: prediction Science. transitions of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 33 (3) P266-270

Demargne, J., J. Brown, Y. Liu, D. J. Seo, L. Wu, Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu, 2010: Diagnostic Verification of Hydrometeorological and Hydrologic Ensemble. Atmospheric Science Letter, Vol. 11 (2) P114-122

Snyder, A. D., Z. Pu, and Y. Zhu, 2010: Tracking and Verification of East Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the NCEP Global Ensemble: Case Studies during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 25 1397-1411

Wei, M., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y., 2010: Analysis Differences and Error Variance Estimates from Multi-center Analysis data. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 59, 25-34. 

Peña, M., Toth, Z. and M. Wei, 2010: Controlling noise in ensemble assimilation schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1502–1512.

Du, J., and J. Chen, 2010: The cornerstone in facilitating the transition from deterministic to probabilistic forecasts - Ensemble forecasting and its impact on numerical weather prediction. Meteorological Monthly, 36(11), 1-11.

Du, J., and J. Chen, 2010: Necessity of communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts in view of public criticism. Meteorological Monthly, 36(1), 1-6.

Du, J., and G. Deng, 2010: The utility of the transition from deterministic to probabilistic weather forecasts - verification and application of probabilistic forecasts. Meteorological Monthly, 36(12), 10-18.

Li, J., J. Du, M. Wang, Y. Gong and A. Lai, 2010: Precipitation verifications to an ensemble prediction system using two initial perturbation schemes based on AREM. J. of Tropical Meteorology, 26(6), 733-742.

Zhou, B. and J. Du, 2010: Fog prediction from a multimodel mesoscale ensemble prediction system. Wea. and Forecasting, 25, 303-322.


Hou, D., K. Mitchell, Z. Toth, D. Lohmann and H. Wei, 2009: The effect of large scale atmospheric uncertainty on Streamflow predictability. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10, 717-733.  

Majumdr, S. J. , K. J. Sellwood, D. Hodyss, Y. Song and Z. Toth, 2009: Characteristics of target areas selected by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter for medium-range forecasts of high-impact winter weather, Mon. Wea. Rev.,138, 2803–2824. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3106.1

Li, J. and J. Du, 2009: Experiments of perturbing initial condition in the development of a mesoscale ensemble prediction system for heavy rainstorm forecasting. Plateau Meteorology, 28(6), 1365-1375.


Jeffrey, S. W., T. M. Hamill, X. Wei, Y. Song, and Z. Toth, 2008: Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP Global Forecast System, Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 463–482

Son, J., D. Hou and Z. Toth, 2008: An assessment of Bayesian bias estimator for numerical weather prediction. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 15, 1013-1022.  

Wei, M. and Z. Toth, R.Wobus, Y.Zhu, 2008: Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system. Tellus, 60A, 62–79.

Peña, M. and H. van den Dool, 2008: Consolidation of Multi-Method Forecasts by Ridge Regression: Application to Pacific Sea Surface Temperature. J. Clim., 21, 6521-6538.


Zhu, Y. 2007: Objective Evaluation of Global Precipitation Forecast. In special collection of: International Symposium on Advances in Atmospheric Science and Information Technology, Beijing, China, 2007 p3-8

Toth, Z. M. Pena and A. Vintzileos, 2007: Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: Research priorities for intraseasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1427-1429.    

Toth, Z., and M. Pena, 2007: Data assimilation and numerical forecasting with imperfect models: The mapping paradigm. Physica D, 230, 146-158. 

Gombos, D., J. Hansen, J. Du and J. McQueen, 2007: Theory and applications of the minimum spanning tree rank histogram. Mon. Wea. Rew. 135, 1490-1505.

Li, Z. and co-authors including J. Du, 2007: The rapid growth of publications by atmospheric and oceanic scientists of Chinese origin, BAMS, 88(6), 846-848.

Yuan, H., X. Gao, S. L. Mullen, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. H Juang, 2007: calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts with an Articial neural Network, Wea. and Forecasting, 22, 1287-1303.

Yuan, H., S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. H Juang, 2007: short-Range Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the Southwest united States by the RSM Ensemble System, Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1685-1698.


Wei, M. and Z. Toth, R.Wobus, Y.Zhu, C.H.Bishop, X. Wang 2006: Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP. Tellus 58A, 28-44.

Saha, S., M. Peña, et. al., 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Clim., 19, 3483-3517.

Stensrud, D, and co-authors including J. Du, 2006: The New England High-Resolution temperature Program, BAMS, 87(4), 491-498.


Zhu, Y. 2005: Ensemble Forecast: A New Approach to Uncertainty and Predictability. Advance in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 22, No. 6, 781-788

Tennant W., Z. Toth and K.Rae 2005: Application of the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System to Medium-range Forecasting in South Africa: New Products, Benefits and Challenges. Weather and forecasting.

Buizza, R., P.L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, y. Zhu, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC and NCEP Global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 1076-1097.

Qutzler,D.S. et. al., 2005: The North American Monsoon Model assessment project, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1423–1429.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-10-1423

Yuan, H., S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. H Juang, 2005: Verification of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over the southwest United States during winter 2002/03 by the RSM ensemble system, Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 279-294.


Zou, X., H. Liu, R. A. Anthes, H. Shao, J. C. Chang, and Y. Zhu, 2004: Impact of CHAMP Radio Occulation Observations on Global Analysis and Forecasts in the Absence of AMSU radiance Data. journal of the Meteorological Society of Janpan, Vol. 82, No. 1B, pp 533-549.

Zhu, Y. 2004: Probabilistic Forecasts and Evaluations Based on a Global Ensemble Prediction System. World Scientific Series on Meteorology of East Asia, Vol. 3 - Observation, Theory, and Modeling of Atmospheric Variability, 277-287

Wei, M. and J. S. Frederiksen, 2004: Error Growth and Dynamical Vectors during Southern Hemisphere Blocking. Nonlinear Processes in geophysics, 11, 99-119.


Wei, M. and Z. Toth, 2003: A New Measure of Ensemble Performance: Perturbation versus Error Correlation Analysis (PECA). Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1549-1565.


Szunyogh, I.,  and Z. Toth, 2002: The effect of increased horizontal resolution on the NCEP global ensemble mean forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1125-1143.

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Richardson, and K. mylne, 2002: The economic value of ensemble based weather forecasts. Bulletin of the American meteorological Society, 83, 73-83.

Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, S. J. Majumdar, A. V. Zimin, and A. persson, 2002: Propagation of the effect of targeted observations: The 2000 Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program. Monthly Weather Review, 130, 1144-1165.

Du, J., 2002: Present Situation and Prospects of Ensemble Numerical prediction. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 13, 16-28.


Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, and T. Marchok, 2001: On the ability of ensembles to distinguish between forecasts with small and large uncertainty. Weather and Forecasting, 16, 436-477.


Zou, X., B. Wang, H. Liu, R. Anthes, T. Matsumura and Y. Zhu, 2000: Use of GPS/MET Refraction Angles in 3D Variational Analysis. Q. J. R. Meteorological Society., Vol. 126 3013-3040

Du, J., S. L. Mullen, and F. Sanders, 2000: Removal of distortion error from an ensemble forecast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3347-3351.

Stensrud, D. J., H. E. Brooks, J. Du, M. S. Tracton, and E. Rogers, 2000: Reply to "Comments on Using Ensembles for Short-Range Forecasting", Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 (8), 3021-3023.


Mullen, S. L, J. Du, and F. Sanders, 1999: The dependence of ensemble dispersion on analysis-forecast system: Implications to short-range ensemble forecasting of precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1674-1686.

Stensrud, D. J., H. E. Brooks, J. Du, M. S. Tracton and E. Rogers, 1999: using ensembles for short-range forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 433-446.


Barsugli, J. J, J. S. Whitaker, A. F. Loughe, P. D. Sardeshmukh and Z. Toth, 1998: Effect of the 1997-98 El Niño on Individual Large-Scale Weather Events.Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.80,1399-412.


Toth, Z., E. Kalnay, S. M. Tracton, R. Wobus and J. Irwin, 1997: A synoptic evaluation of the NCEP ensemble. Weather and Forecasting, 12, 140-153.

Du, J., S. L. Mullen, and F. Sanders, 1997: Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2427-2459.


Kalney, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, J. Wollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak, K.C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, R. Jenne, D. Joseph, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, 437-471

Du, J., 1996: Short-range ensemble forecasting of an explosive cyclogenesis with a limited-area model, University of Arizona, Ph.D dissertation, pp.146.


Baer, F. and Y. Zhu, 1992: Forecast Accuracy with Optimum Vertical Model Truncation. Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 120, 2579-2591.


Ruan, J., Y. Zhu, and C. Bao 1986: On the mean current structure in Typhoon. Acta Oceanography of China, 35, 99-110.

Bao, C., J. Ruan and Y. Zhu,1986: A study on the relationship between the rotation of binary typhoon and steering current. Advance in Atmospheric Sciences, 3, 115-124


Bao, C., J. Ruan and Y. Zhu, 1985: The influence of surround current by Fujiwhara effect and Bityphoon rotation. Scientia Sinica, 30, 766-768