For further information about these meetings, please contact:  

We will try to use the GoToMeeting Webinar capability for the 20 August meeting, but will use the following telephone conference line for voice:
(866) 727-3395  passcode 8757146. 
Here is the URL for our GoToMeeting link:  
You will need to register with a name and e-mail in order to get into the webinar.  If you are unable to connect to GoToMeeting, you can use the presentation copy posted below to follow along with the telecon.

Next Meeting: August 20, 2009   3 pm EDT

Tentative topics:

Past meetings

May 19   An ensemble of ensembles (TIGGE): What's available now in CXML format and what's coming via GIFS for tropical cyclone forecasting (Beth Ebert, CAWCR)

Oct 28
   Evaluating “Bayesian Processor of Forecasts” using GFS surface temperature reforecasts (Hamill)

Oct 28    
 How grads can handle ensemble data encoded in GRIB2  (Adams & Doty)   Special Topic

Aug 5        
  WSR/TPARC 2009-2010 implementation plan  (Song)
                     SREF Plan for 2009-2010    (Du)
                      NAEFS and GEFS plans   (Zhu)

July 8        
2008 SREF implmentation:  parallel test results  (Du)

Jun 4        
  Recent progress and plans for statistical processing of ensemble precipitation forecasts (Charles)

May 27    
Use of atmospheric ensembles to force hydrologic forecast applications (RFCs, OHD)

Mar 5      
Development of a Continuous Precipitation Variable for Bias Correction and Downscaling  (Charles)
                    A New Precip Dataset for Bias Correction & Downscaling

Feb 26    
 Bias correction of the SREF ensemble  (Jun Du)

Dec 4      
 Analysis and Forecasts of a Historic Rain and Flood Event  (Grumm)

Nov 27    Intra-seasonal variability in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (Qin Zhang)

Sept 11    Initial development and plans related to a high impact event ensemble forecast system (Jun Du, Dusan Jovic)

Sept 4     Definition of continuous variable related to precipitation (Paul Schultz, ESRL/GSD)    precip example

Jul 24      Current practice and plans for generating initial perturbations for the SREF (Wei)

Jul 17     Coupled ocean-atmosphere initial ensemble perturbations for sub-seasonal time scales  (Pena)

Jun 12     1) Proposed format for numerical forecast uncertainty estimates: Ensembles - Forecasters - Users (Z. Toth)
               2) Bias correct / combine information from the SREF ensemble with higher resolution NAM forecasts (Jun Du)

May 22    Plans for probabilistic guidance products for high impact events and corresponding performance measures  (Toth)

May 15    Hindcasting Plans  (Zhu)    Possible GENS Upgrades (Toth)

Apr 10     Hydrologic ensemble/predictability (John Schaacke)

Mar 27 -   NAEFS:  recent verification results   (Zhu)

Mar 13   Downscaling ensemble forecasts to the NDGD grid (Bo Cui)     Downscaling (Toth)

Mar 6   -   Recommendations following the 3rd Ensemble User Workshop (Zoltan Toth)    [doc / ppt]

Feb  27  -  Uncertainty estimation in air quality and dispersion forecasting (Jeff Mcqueen and Binbin Zhou)

Feb 6   -   Statistical post-processing with linear regression and neural network methods (Huiling Yuan)

Jan 30  -   Configuration of ensemble forecasts in support of the 2007 SPC Spring Program (Steve Weiss and David Bright)

Nov 14  Re-forecasting issues (Tom Hamill)   [PPT File]    [PDF File]

Oct 18  -  Improvements to the NAEFS bias-correction algorithm (Yulia Gel)

Sep 26  -  Sensitivity Tests of Precipitation and T2m to Soil Moisture  (Du)       Representing Uncertainty Associated with the Land Surface Component (D Hou)

Sep 12 -   preliminary agenda for the upcoming ensemble user workshop         proposed web interface

Jun  6 -    An ensemble-based tool for the modification of numerical guidance products. (K Brill and M Schichtel)

Mar 28 -  Ensemble based estimates of forecast uncertainty and their downscaling to higher resolution grids (NDGD) (Z. Toth)

Mar 21 -  Estimating the first moment of the forecast pdf based on information from high resolution control & lower resolution ensemble forecasts  (J. Du,   Z. Toth)

Jan. 24 -  
Ensemble-based estimates of information content in observational data extractable by data assimilation methods  (Zupanski & Wei)

Jan 10 -    Recent results related to the inclusion of WRF members into the SREF system  (Du & McQueen)

Dec 20 -   Stochastic model perturbations for representing model related errors in ensemble forecasting  (D Hou)

Nov 22 -  Report on recent ECMWF "Operational Systems" workshop  (Y Zhu)

Oct 25 -   Reducing forecast errors induced by model drift (Toth)           NEW!

Oct 11 -   Development & calibration of ensemble based hazardous weather products at the SPC (David Bright)

May 31 -  Design of ensemble guidance products for NDGD  (Toth)  

Apr 5  -   New statistical post-processing results with the global ensemble system (B. Cui) 

Mar 22- 
The use of the Gaussian Kernel Method for constructing continuous probability density functions from ensemble forecasts (Unger) 

Mar 8 -  Consistency of Ensemble Forecasts (Zhu), SREF Probability Consistency Checking Tool (Zhou)   

Feb  8 -   Observing System Simulation Experiments at NCEP (M. Masutani)    

Jan 4   -   Plans for Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) with the ocean part of the CFS forecast system (M. Pena)

Dec 14 -  WRF ensemble developments  (Geoff Dimego)   PDF   

Nov 2  -   Review of  recent WMO Ensemble Workshop held in Exeter    Hou   (PDF) ,   Du   (PDF) ,   Tracton   (PDF)  

Oct 12 -  The use of the Ensemble Transform (ET) technique to generate initial ensemble perturbations, and a plan for multi-center collaboration (C. Bishop and M. Wei)

Sept 7 -  Verification of ensemble and probabilistic forecasts (Z. Toth)

June 1 -  Stochastic forcing in ensemble forecast integrations (D. Wou)

May 4 -  Mesoscale (SREF) ensemble forecasting: Initial value, physics, or mixed perturbation approach (J. Du)

March 30 - Initial ensemble perturbations: ETKF experiments (M. Wei)

March 2 - Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts (Z. Toth)

Febr. 10 - The Northeast Energy project (J. McQueen)

Jan 20, 2004 - Representing model related errors in ensemble forecasting (Z. Toth)

Dec. 16 - Different measures of predictability (Y. Zhu)

Oct. 22 - Parallel testing of new SREF configuration (J. Du) Current parallel setup for global ensemble (R. Wobus)

Sept 30 2003 - North American Ensemble Forecast System (Z. Toth)

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