Why Did SPC Start Looking at High Resolution WRF Models?

• Severe weather types (tornadoes, hail, wind damage) can be closely related to convective mode

  • Tornadoes (discrete supercells)
  • Damaging wind (bow echoes and QLCSs)

• SPC working to increase lead time of watches and provide probabilistic information about tornado, hail, and wind threats in Day 1 Severe Weather Outlooks

• Accurate forecasts require knowledge about “where” and “when” storms will develop and how they will evolve

  • There is a need to better predict convective mode and character of storms (stormscale details)
  • Environmental clues (CAPE/shear, etc.) may not be sufficient
  • Operational mesoscale models often lack smaller scale details