Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

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HAFS Development

Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) is NOAA's next generation, multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation forecast system , which provides reliable and skillful dynamic model guidance on Tropical Cyclone (TC) track and intensity, including Rapid Intensification (RI), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall, and tornadoes associated with TCs. HAFS became NOAA's operational hurricane model on June 27, 2023.

HAFS, which is a Unified Forecasting System (UFS) based hurricane application, features convection-allowing storm-following nests, high-resolution model physics calibrated for TC application, storm inner-core Data Assimilation (DA) with vortex initialization, two-way atmosphere-ocean and one-way atmosphere-wave coupling. The HAFS inner-core DA system and model physics have been developed based on extensive hurricane observations.

The development of HAFS and its transition to operations and eventually to the community is a great example of collaboration and teamwork. It is jointly developed by National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in collaboration with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamical Laboratory (GFDL), and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) community. HAFS aids forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) with better tools and numerical model products for providing track and intensity forecast guidance. Consequently, the NHC forecasters are involved from the developmental stages of HAFS all the way to its evaluation and implementation.

Apart from further advancing TC track, intensity, and RI predictions, critical advancements toward HFIP strategic goals related to risk communication are underway. Operational implementation of tropical storm force winds-time of arrival product development of HAFS ensemble capabilities are being explored. Hurricane probabilistic products are also planned and under-development for future HAFS configurations.

HMON Development

Details about HMON development can be found from the legacy HMON webpage

HWRF Development

Details about HWRF development can be found from the legacy HWRF webpage