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Purpose:
Bring together experts and users involved in the generation and use of NWS ensemble forecast information to review progress and discuss plans.

Draft Recommendations:

word document      (03/06/07)
powerpoint             (04/06/07)

Agenda:
preliminary agenda     (10/30/06)

Attendance:
preliminary list of attendees      (10/30/06)

Presentation Links:

Setting the stage

Completing the forecast with uncertainty information (Bob Ryan, NBC)                       
    Forecasting with Spaghetti:  page 1, page 2

Propagating uncertainty information in the forecast process (Zoltan Toth)

Assessing/Reducing/Representing Uncertainty from observations to modeling

Assessing/Reducing/Representing Uncertainty (ARRU) in observations (Yucheng Song)

ARRU in initial conditions (DA) (Mozheng Wei)

ARRU in numerical modeling (Dingchen Hou and Jun Du)

Overview of operational ensemble forecast systems: Recent changes, current and planned configuration and products

Global ensemble and NAEFS (Yuejian Zhu)

Regional ensemble (SREF) (Jun Du)

Ocean wave & sea ice ensemble (HS. Chen)

Climate ensemble (Suranjana Saha and Malaquias Pena)

User Reports

NCEP Service Centers
(HPC*, AWC, CPC, OPC, SPC)
zip contains ppt and linked animation files that should be extracted to the same directory before viewing the slideshow

 NWS Regions 
 ER, CR, SR, WR, AR, PR

Assessing/Reducing/ Representing Uncertainty in ensemble output

Statistical bias correction in NAEFS (Bo Cui)

A Bayesian ensemble processor (Roman Krzysztofowicz, Univ. Virginia)

Post-processing of Ensemble MOS (Matt Peroutka)

Downscaling applications at MDL (Mark Antolik)

An overview of the benefits of calibration using re-forecasts (Tom Hamill, ESRL)

Review of experience at other operational centers

MSC (Richard Verret, MSC)

AFWA (Tony Eckel, AFWA)

NMSM (Rene Lobato)

KMA (Sunok Moon)

CMA (Jing Chen)

Lunchtime presentation: Hydromet Testbed activities (Paul Schultz, ESRL)

Ensemble data depository, interrogation/product generation tools, delivery, verification

Ensemble data access/distribution (Brent Gordon)

NOMADS for ensembles (Jordan Alpert)

Requirements (Zoltan Toth)

Realities (NDFD, NDGD, IFPS) (David Ruth)

NAWIPS digital / graphical display tools (Scott Jacobs)

Ensemble verification system: status and plans (Yuejian Zhu)

Downstream applications

Air quality applications (DTRA & AOL) (James Wilczak & Pius Lee)

Hydrologic applications (Julie Demargne, OHD)   Part 1,  Part 2

Experimental ensemble river forecasting at NCEP (Dingchen Hou)

INFORM – Water management applications in CA (Konstantine Georgakakos)

User Support System development at NCAR (Bill Mahoney, NCAR)

Training (Bill Bua, COMET)