Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System







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OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION

HAFSv1 FY2023 Operational Implementation:

  1. Highlights of HAFS Initial Operational Capability (IOC) implementation:
    • Two HAFS configurations including HAFS-A (HFSA) and HAFS-B (HFSB) to succeed the two legacy regional HWRF and HMON hurricane forecast systems, respectively.
    • First ufs-weather-model based regional hurricane forecast system (UFS hurricane application), with Shared subcomponents (ufs-weather-model, UFS_UTILS, GSI, UPP, etc.) and infrastructure (CMEPS, CCPP, etc.) with other UFS applications.
    • First UFS application with high resolution storm-following moving-nesting capability using the regional Extended Schmidt Gnomonic (ESG) grid.
    • Advanced and diversified CCPP-based physics suites for (HFSA and HFSB, respectively) with optimized physics schemes for high resolution hurricane forecasting.
    • Modernized vortex initialization (VI) together with high-resolution inner-core DA with 3-hourly FGAT, and 4DEnVar with GDAS ensembles. Meanwhile, for the first time, use full DA increments in the storm inner-core region in a NCEP operational regional hurricane forecast system.
    • ESMF/CMEPS based HYCOM ocean coupling for all global TC basins with extended ocean domains.
    • Unified hurricane application workflow to support both research and development Rocoto workflow and operational Ecflow workflow.
  2. Infrastructure and workflow:
    • Use the HAFS production/hafs.v1 branch with the latest submodules/subcomponents including ufs_utils, GSI, ufs-weather-model, UPP (as of 01/17/2023)
    • Storm-centric regional Extended Schmidt Gnomonic (ESG) grid based storm-following moving-nest configuration:
      • HFSA: 6-km parent domain (1320x1200, ~78x75 degree) with a 2-km moving nest (600x600, ~12x12 degree)
      • HFSB: 6-km parent domain (1200x1200, ~75x75 degree) with a 2-km moving nest (600x600, ~12x12 degree)
    • Increased model vertical levels (L81) with a higher model top (2 hPa).
    • Model physics time step of 90s (dt_atmos):
      • HFSA: k/n_split of 2/4 for parent and k/n_split of 4/10 for nest
      • HFSB: k/n_split of 2/4 for parent and k/n_split of 4/9 for nest
    • Atmospheric initial condition and 3-hourly lateral boundary conditions from GFSv16, LBC blending with nrows_blend of 20.
    • Using VIIRS vegetation type.
  3. Vortex initialization and data assimilation:
    • Modernized vortex initialization (VI) including vortex relocation (VR) and automatically determined vortex modification (VM) based on intensity difference.
      • HFSA: warm-cycling intensity threshold of 50 kt
      • HFSB: warm-cycling intensity threshold of 40 kt
    • High-resolution inner-core DA with 3-hourly FGAT, and 4DEnVar with 3-hourly 80 member GDAS ensembles.
    • For the first time, use full DA increments in the storm inner-core region in a NCEP operational regional hurricane forecast system.
    • Updated adaptive observation error coefficients for flight recon data.
    • Assimilate all the observation types ingested by HWRF and GFS/GDAS.
    • Newly developed flexible HAFS DA tool for domain and storm merge to support HAFS VI and DA needs.
  4. Dynamics:
    • hord_mt/vt/tm/dp/tr=6/6/6/6/-5
    • kord_mt/wz/tr/tm=11/11/11/-11
    • Damping related options:
      • tau=5, n_sponge = 24
      • rf_cutoff = 50.e2, sg_cutoff = -1.
      • d2_bg_k1=0.20, d2_bg_k2 = 0.15
      • vtdm4 = 0.04, delt_max=0.008
    • full_zs_filter=.true., and max_slope=0.15 for both parent and nest.
  5. Physics:
    • HFSA: GFDL MP, RRTMG radiation (720s time step), modified TKE-EDMF GFS PBL (sfc_rlm=1, d02 elmx/rlmx=250), upgraded sa-SAS CP (clam_deep=0.15), Noah LSM, GFS SFC with HWRF exchange coefficients, unified UGWPv1.
    • HFSB: Thompson MP, RRTMG radiation (1800s time step), modified TKE-EDMF GFS PBL (tc_pbl=1, d02 elmx/rlmx=75), upgraded sa-SAS CP, Noah LSM, GFS SFC with HWRF exchange coefficients, unified UGWPv1.
  6. Air-sea interaction and coupling:
    • ESMF/CMEPS based HYCOM ocean coupling with extended HYCOM ocean domains with 1/12-degree grid spacing and L41 vertical levels. Ocean IC from RTOFSv2 with persistent oceanic LBC. Atmospheric forcing from GFSv16 grib2 files for non-overlapping area.
    • One-way WW3 wave coupling for NHC/CPHC basins (NATL, EPAC, CPAC) for HFSA, while no wave coupling for HFSB.
  7. Post-processing and products:
    • Latest UPP.
    • Upgraded GFDL vortex tracker.