2015
Zhou B., P. Shafran, Y. Lin, F. Yang, Y. Zhu, Y. Mao, Y. Luo, and G. DiMego, 2015: An Overview of Grid-to-Grid Verification at Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of NCEP. AMS 23nd NWP/27th WAF Conference, June 29-July 2, 2015, Chicago, IL.
Du, J., G. DiMego, B. Zhou, D. Jovic, B. Ferrier and B. Yang, 2015: Regional ensemble forecast systems at NCEP. 23rd Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction and 27th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Chicago, IL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., June 29-July 3, 2015, paper 2A.5.
Zhu Y., H. Guan, and B. Cui, 2015: Potential Week-2 Skill Improvement for Multi-Model Ensemble Application, Octorber 26-29, 2015,
Dever, CO.
Li W., Y. Zhu, M. Peña, X. Zhou, D. Hou, 2015: The impact of the SST on the 5-day average weather variables in the extended forecast using the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System, Octorber 26-29, 2015, Dever, CO.
Zhu Y., X. Zhou, D. Hou, J. Peng, 2015: Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track in GEFS, November 17, 2015: Miami, FL.
2014
Du, J., G. DiMego, B. Zhou, D. Jovic, B. Ferrier, B. Yang, S. Benjamin, 2014:
NCEP Regional Ensembles: Evolving toward hourly-updated convection-allowing scale
and storm-scale predictions within a unified regional modeling system.
22nd Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction and 26th Conf. on Weather Analysis
and Forecasting, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Feb. 1-6, 2014, paper J1.4 .
Luo Y., and Y. Zhu, 2014:
Climatological Analysis of Model Precipitation from NCEP GEFS Reforecast. 28th Conference on Hydrology in 94th AMS Annual Meeting, 02 - 06 February, 2014, Atlanta, GA.
Shao Y. , Y. Luo, and Y. Zhu, 2014: Climatological Analysis of Model Precipitation Forecast for China. 28th Conference on Hydrology in 94th AMS Annual Meeting, 02 - 06 February, 2014, Atlanta, GA.
Peng J., Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2014: Multiple Model Ensemble Forecasts for Tropical Cyclone Track and Genesis. 31th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 31 March-4 April, 2014, San Diego, CA.
Peng J., Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2014: Hurricane genesis and verifications. 6th NCEP ensemble user workshop, 25-27 March, 2014, College Park, MD.
Peng J., Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2014: TC genesis ensemble forecasts. 68th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 3-6 March, 2014, College Park, MD.
2013
Luo Y., Y. Zhu, and D. Hou, 2013:
Development of a High-Resolution Precipitation Climatological Dataset from the Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA). 27th Conference on Hydrology in 93rd AMS Annual Meeting, 6-10 January, 2013, Austin, TX.
2012
Luo Y., D. Hou, Y. Zhu, . Xie, and Y. Lin, 2012:
Recent Upgrades to the Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA). 26th Conference on Hydrology in 92nd AMS Annual Meeting, 22-26 January, 2012, New Orleans, LA.
Luo Y., D. Hou, Y. Zhu, nd Y. Lin, 2012:
Inclusion of 3-Hourly Accumulated Precipitation Analysis to the Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA). 26th Conference on Hydrology in 92nd AMS Annual Meeting, 22-26 January, 2012, New Orleans, LA.
Peng J., Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2012: Tropical Cyclone Track and Genesis Prediction Through Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts. 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 15-20 April, 2012, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.
Peng J., Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2012: Tropical cyclone probabilistic prediction through multi-model ensemble forecasts. 92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 22-26 January, 2012, New Orleans, LA.
2011
Luo, Y., and Y. Zhu, 2011:
Advances in Calibration of QPF/PQPF for the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. 25th Conference on Hydrology in 91st AMS Annual Meeting, 11-15 January 2011, Seattle, WA.
Hou, D., Y. Luo, Y. Zhu, . Xie, and Y. Lin, 2011:
CCPA Precipitation Analysis: Data Set, Cross Validation and Evaluation. 25th Conference on Hydrology in 91st AMS Annual Meeting. 11-15 January 2011, Seattle, WA.
Peng J., Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2011: EMC multi-model ensemble TC track forecast. 5th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop, 10-12 May, 2011, Laurel, MD.
Peng J., Y. Zhu and R. Wobus, 2011: Tropical cyclone prediction through multiple global model ensemble forecast system., 91st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 23-27 January, 2011, Seattle, WA.
2009
Cui, B., Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and Z. Toth, 2009: NAEFS based bias correction and statistical down scaling. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. Omaha, Nebraska, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Hou, and B. Cui, 2009: Upgrade of NCEP global ensemble forecast system. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. Omaha, Nebraska, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Cui, B., Z. Toth, D. Hou, Y. Zhu, and A. Methot, 2009: A study of the effect of bias correction and downscaling on the performance of ensemble forecast systems. Preprints, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, EGU2009-13129, 2009.
Cui, B., Z. Toth, D. Hou, Y. Zhu, and A. Methot, 2009: Effect of bias correction and downscaling on the performance of ensemble forecast systems. Third THORPEX International Science Symposium TTISS, May 4-8 2009, Monterey, California, World Meteorological Organization.
Du, J., G. DiMego, Z. Toth, D. Jovic, B. Zhou, J. Zhu, H. Chuang, J. Wang,
H. Juang, E. Rogers, and Y. Lin, 2009: NCEP short-range ensemble forecast
(SREF) system upgrade in 2009. 19th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction
and 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Omaha, Nebraska, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., June 1-5, 2009, paper 4A.4.
2008
Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2008: Northern American Ensemble Forecast System/NCEP development oriented verification. 4th North American Ensemble Forecast System Workshop, October 6-8 2008, Camp Springs, Maryland, National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu and Weiyu Yang, 2008:
Impact of a Stochastic Perturbation Scheme on NCEP Global Ensemble
Forecast System. 19th AMS conference on Probability and Statistics. New
Orleans, LA, 20-24 Jan. 2008.
Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu and D. Hou, 2008: Statistical downscaling approach and its application, Preprints, 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, New Orleans, Louisiana, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, S. Beauregard, D. Unger, and R. Wobus, 2008: Statistical Post-Processing of Ensembles. 4th North American Ensemble Forecast System Workshop, October 6-8 2008, Camp Springs, Maryland, National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Cui, B., Z. Toth and Y. Zhu, 2008: Down-scaled Products. 4th North American Ensemble Forecast System Workshop, October 6-8 2008, Camp Springs, Maryland, National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, S. Beauregard, D. Unger, and R. Wobus, 2008: Statistical Downscaling Approach & its Application. 4th North American Ensemble Forecast System Workshop, October 6-8 2008, Camp Springs, Maryland, National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
2007
Zhu, Y., and B Cui, 2007: Section 1: Summary of GFS bias correction.
Zhu, Y., and B Cui, 2007: Section 2: New ensemble forecasts from hybrid GFS and GEFS bias corrected forecasts.
Zhu, Y., and B Cui, 2007: Section 3: Section 3: NAEFS mean, spread and probability forecasts.
Zhu, Y., and B Cui, 2007: Section 4: Statistical down-scaling for NAEFS ensemble forecasts.
Peña, M., Z. Toth, Zhu, Y., B Cui and L. Lefaivre, 2007: The NAEFS operational system, products, plans and related activities. North American THORPEX Meeting, April 12-13, 2007, Mexico City, World Meteorological Organization.
Hou, Dingchen, Kenneth Mitchell, Zoltan Toth, Dag Lohmann and Helin Wei: Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting with the Coupled GFS-Noah Modeling System. International Symposium on Advances in Atmospheric Science and Information technology, Nanjing, China, July 2007.
2006
Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth and Yuejian Zhu, 2006:
A Stochastic
Parameterization Scheme within NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System.
18th AMS conference on Probability and Statistics. Atlanta, GA, Jan.
29-Feb. 2, 2006.
Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth and Yuejian Zhu: A Stochastic Parameterization Scheme with NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. 18th AMS conference on Probability and Statistics. Atlanta, GA, Jan. 29-Feb. 2, 2006.
Liu, Q., S. J. Lord, N. Surgi, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Z. Toth and T. Marchok, 2006:
"Hurricane Relocation in Global Ensemble Forecast System" Preprints,
27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P5.13.
Du, J., J. McQueen, G. DiMego, Z. Toth, D. Jovic, B. Zhou, and H. Chuang, 2006:
New Dimension of NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) System: Inclusion
of WRF Members, Preprint, WMO Expert Team Meeting on Ensemble Prediction System,
Exeter, UK, Feb. 6-10, 2006, 5 pages.
S., 2006: The Trade-off in Bias Correction between Using the Latest
Analysis/Modeling System with a Short, versus an Older System with a
Long Archive. The First THORPEX International Science Symposium.
Deccember 6-10, 2004, Montréal, Canada, World Meteorological
Organization, P281-284.
Cui, B., Y. Zhu,, Z. Toth, R. Wobus, M. Wei and Q. Liu, 2006: Main techniques used in the NCEP Operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). November 14, 2006, National Meteorlogical Center, China Meteorological Administration.
Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, S. Beauregard, D. Unger and R. Wobus, 2006: Statistical post-processing of ensembles. 3rd NCEP / NWS Ensemble User Workshop. October 31- November, 2006, Camp Springs, Maryland, National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Cui, B., Y. Zhu, Z. Toth, R. Verret and S. Beauregard, 2006: Review of the May 2006 basic product implementation. 2006 North American Ensemble Forecast System Workshop, May 24-26, 2006, Montreal, Canada Meteorological Service of Canada.
Cui, B., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y., Hou, D., Unger, D., Beauregard, S., 2006: The Trade-off in Bias Correction between Using the Latest Analysis/Modeling System with a Short, versus an Older System with a Long Archive. The First THORPEX International Science Symposium. December 6-10, 2004, Montréal, Canada, World Meteorological Organization, P281-284.
Stéphane Beauregard, L.J.W., B. Cui, Y. Zhu, Z. Toth and R. Verret, 2006: Calibration and Post-processing methods to Combine Ensembles from Multiple Sources - The NAEFS Experience.
2005
Zhu, Y., 2005: Calibration of Model Forecasts Based on NCEP Ensembles. IAMAS, 2-11 August 2005, Beijing, China
Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 2005: Calibration of QPF/PQPF Forecast Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble. 19th Conference on Hydrology, 9-13 January 2005, San Diego, California
Cui, B., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y., Hou, D., Unger, D., Beauregard,
S., 2005:
The Trade-off in Bias Correction between Using the Latest
Analysis/Modeling System with a Short, versus an Older System with a
Long Archive
Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and S. Beauregard, 2005: Statistical post-processing of operational & CDC hindcast ensembles. Preprints, 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, D.C., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 12B.2.
Cui, B.; Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and R. Wobus, 2005: Bias correction methods - adjusting moments. Preprints, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Vienna, Austria, European Geosciences Union, EGU05-A-05997.
Wei, M., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y. Wobus,R.,Biship, C. 2005:
Initial Ensemble Perturbations using the Ensemble Transform Technique
IAMAS, Beijing, August
9, 2005.
Toth, Z., L. Lefaivre, G. Brunet, Y. Zhu, B. Cui, P. L. Houtekamer, L. J. Wilson, R. Verret, R. Hogue, R. Wobus, D. Unger, E. Olenic, B. A. Gordon, and G. Pellerin, 2005: The North American Ensemble Forecast System. Preprints, 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, D.C., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 11A.1.
Toth, Z., J. Desmarais, G. Brunet, Houtekamer, Y. Zhu, R.
Wobus, R. Hogue, R. Verret, L. Wilson, B. Cui, G. Pellerin, B. Gordon,
E. O'Lenic, D. Unger, 2005:
The North American Ensemble
Forecast System (NAEFS)
THORPEX extended abstract.
Toth, Z.; J.-G. Desmarais, G. Brunet, Y. Zhu, R. Verret, R. Wobus, R. Hogue, and B. Cui, 2005: The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), Preprints, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Vienna, Austria, European Geosciences Union, EGU05-A-02501.
Wei, M., Toth, Z., Wobus,R., Zhu, Y. Hou, D. and Cui, B., 2005:
2nd
NCEP Global Ensemble: recent development and plan
SRNWP Workshop on Short Range Ensemble Bologna, Italy, April 7-8, 2005.
Holland, L., Z. Toth, S. Majumdar, 2005:
Evaluating the impact of
adaptive observations during ATREC-03 and WSR04
THORPEX extended abstract.
Wei, M., Toth, Z., Wobus, R., Zhu, Y., Bishop, C. H. 2005:
Initial Perturbations for NCEP Ensemble Forecast System.
Thorpex Symposium
Proceedings for the First THORPEX Internal Science Symposium
6-10 December 2004, Montreal, Canada. The Symposium Proceedings in a WMO
Publication 2005, WMO TD No.1237, WWRP THORPEX No. 6, p227-230.
Du, J., 2005: Impact of Model Error and Imperfect Initial Condition Perturbations
on Ensemble-Based Probabilistic Forecasts: UNPREDICTABLE SPOTS.
Preprints, 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction/21st Conference on
Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington DC., Aug. 1-5, 2005, Amer. Meteor.
Soc., paper 15B.6.
Grumm, R. H., and J. Du, 2005: NCEP SREF Forecasts of Three Hurricanes during the 2004
Tropical Season. Preprints, 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction/21st
Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington DC., Aug. 1-5, 2005,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper P1.46.
McQueen, J., J. Du, B. Zhou, G. Manikin, B. Ferrier, H-Y. Chuang, G. DiMego, and
Z. Toth, 2005: Recent Upgrades to the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System
(SREF) and Future Plans. Preprints, 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction/21st
Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington DC., Aug. 1-5, 2005,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper 11.2.
2004
Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, D. Hou, and B. Cui, 2004: Calibration of model forecasts based on the NCEP global ensemble. Preprints, First THORPEX International Science Symposium, Montréal, Canada, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), P1.4.
Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and R. Wobus, 2004: Bias correction method, adjusting moments or pdf. Preprints, the Second North American Ensemble Forecast System Workshop, November 16-18, 2004, Camp Springs, Maryland, National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, Y. Zhu, C. Bishop, X. Wang, 2004:
An Analysis of the impact of observational data on ETKF-based ensemble perturbations
.
Proceedings of the th 84th AMS Annual Meeting. 11-15 January 2004, Seattle, WA.
Holland, L., Z. Toth, J. Moskaitis, S. Majumdar, C. Bishop, R. Smith, 2004:
Results from the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program 2002-2003.
Proceedings of the 84th AMS Annual Meeting. 11-15 January 2004, Seattle, WA.
Du, J., 2004: Hybrid Ensemble Prediction System: a New Ensembling Approach.
Preprints, Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical
Weather Prediction, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland,
June 14-17, 2004, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper p4.2, 5pp.
Du, J., J. McQueen, G. DiMego, T. Black, H, Juang, E. Rogers, B. Ferrier,
B. Zhou, Z. Toth and M. S, Tracton, 2004: The NOAA/NWS/NCEP short-range
ensemble forecast (SREF) system: evaluation of an initial condition vs
multi-model physics ensemble approach. Preprints, 16th Conference on
Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, Washington, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
paper 21.3.
Manikin, G., J. McQueen, B. Ferrier, and J. Du, 2004: Changes to the NCEP SREF
System and Their Impact on Convection Forecasting, 22nd Conference on Severe
Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper 17.4.
2003
Marchok, T., Z. Toth, Q. Liu, 2003:
Use of
the NCEP Global Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting.
Proceedings of the 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical
Meteorology. 28 April - 3 May 2002, San Diego, CA.
Du, J., G. DiMego, M. S. Tracton, and B. Zhou 2003: NCEP short-range ensemble
forecasting (SREF) system: multi-IC, multi-model and multi-physics approach.
Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling (edited by
J. Cote), Report 33, CAS/JSC Working Group Numerical Experimentation
(WGNE), WMO/TD-No. 1161, 5.09-5.10.
2002
Toth, Z., and S. Vannitsem, 2002:
Model errors and ensemble forecasting. Proceedings of the 8th ECMWF
Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems. November 12-16, 2001, Reading,
England, 146-154.
2001
Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iredell, and R. Wobus,
2001:
Does increased model resolution enhance predictability? Preprints for the
Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction,
13-17 January 2002, Orlando, FL, in print.
Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh, C. Bishop, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, and S. Lord, 2001:
On the use of targeted
observations in operational numerical weather prediction.
Preprints of the 5th AMS Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, January 15-19
2000, Albuquerque, NM, in print.
Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 2001:
Extreme weather events and their probabilistic prediction by the NCEP ensemble.Preprints
for the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses, 14-19 January 2001, Albuquerque, NM, AMS, in print.
Du, J., and M. S. Tracton, 2001: Implementation of a real-time short-range
ensemble forecasting system at NCEP: an update.
Preprints, 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 355-356.
Tracton M. S., J. Du, 2001: Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction. A report to WMO ensemble
expert meeting.
Tracton M. S., J. Du, 2001: Application of the NCEP/EMC short-range ensemble
forecast system (SREF) to predicting extreme precipitation events.
Preprints, Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and
Responses, Albuqerque, New Mexico, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 64-65.
2000
Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus, 2000:
On the economic value of ensemble based weather forecasts.
Preprints for the 15th AMS Conference on Probability and Statistics in the
Atmospheric Sciences, Ashville, NC, May 8-11, 2000.
Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, B. Etherton, C. Bishop, S. Lord, M. Ralph, O. Persson, and Z.-X. Pu, 2000:
Targeted observations at NCEP: Toward an operational implementation.
Preprints of the 4th Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, 10-14 January
2000, Long Beach, Ca, 186-193.
1999
Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, B.
Etherton,
C. Bishop, and S. Lord, 1999:
The
1999 Winter Storm Reconnaissance program. Preprints
of the 13th
AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 13-17 September 1999,
Denver,
CO, in print.
Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 1999: The
impact of model resolution on the performance of the NCEP global
ensemble
forecast system. Preprints of the 13th AMS
Conference on
Numerical
Weather Prediction, 13-17 September 1999, Denver, CO, in print.
Wobus, R., Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu, 1999: An
evaluation of probabilistic forecasts based on the NCEP global ensemble.
Preprints of the 17th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and
Forecasting,
13-17 September 1999, Denver, CO, in print.
Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 1999: Calibration
of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts.
Preprints
of the 17th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 13-17
September
1999, Denver, CO, in print.
Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 1999: Objective
evaluation of QPF forecasts based on the NCEP ensemble. Preprints
of
the Third International Scientific Conference on the Global Energy and
Water Cycle, Beijing, June 1999.
Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, C.
Bishop,
and
S. Lord, 1999: Ensemble-based
targeted observations during NORPEX. Preprints of the 3rd
Symposium
on Integrated Observing Systems,10-15 January 1999, Dallas, Texas,
74-77.
Du, J., and M. S. Tracton, 1999: Impact of lateral boundary conditions on
regional-model ensemble predicion. Research Activities in Atmospheric and
Oceanic Modelling (edited by H. Ritchie), Report 28, CAS/JSC Working Group
Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), WMO/TD-No. 942, 6.7-6.8.
1998
Toth, Zoltan, I. Szunyogh, K. Emanuel, C. Snyder, J.
Woollen,
W. Wu, T. Marchok, R. Morss and C. Bishop, 1998: Ensemble-based
targeted observations during FASTEX . Preprints , 12th AMS
Conference
on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, Arizona.
Zhu, Y., Toth, Z., E. Kalnay, and S. Tracton, 1998: Probabilistic
quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the NCEP global ensemble.
Preprints of the 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 11-16
January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona, J8-J11.
Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, T. Marchok, . Tracton, and E. Kalnay,
1998: Verification
of the NCEP global ensemble forecasts. Preprints of the 12th
Conference
on Numerical Weather Prediction, 11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona,
286-289.
Tracton, M. S. and J. Du, 1998: Short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) at
NCEP/EMC. Proceedings of 6th Workshop on Meteorological Operational
Systems, Reading, England, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF).
Tracton M. S., J. Du, Z. Toth, and H. Juang, 1998: Short-range ensemble
forecasting (SREF) at NCEP/EMC. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Numerical Weather
Prediction, Phoenix, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper 11.4, 269-272.
1996
Bishop, C. H. and Z. Toth, 1996: Using
ensembles to identify observations likely to improve forecasts
Preprints,
11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Iyengar, G., Z. Toth, E. Kalnay and J. S. Woollen,
1996: Are
the bred vectors representative of analysis errors? Preprints
,
11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Kalnay, E. and Z. Toth, 1996: Ensemble
prediction at NCEP Preprints, 11th
AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Pu, Z., E. Kalnay, D. Parrish, W. Wu and Z. Toth, 1996: The
use of bred vectors in the NCEP global 3-D variational analysis system
Preprints,
11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh and E. Kalnay, 1996: Singular,
Lyapunov and bred vectors in ensemble forecasting Preprints
,
11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Tracton, M. S., R. Wobus and Z. Toth, 1996: On
the principles and operational utility of ensemble prediction
Preprints,
11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Wobus, R., Z. Toth, S. Tracton and E. Kalnay, 1996: How
the NCEP Ensemble works: synoptic examples Preprints
, 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Zhu, Y., G. Iyengar, Z. Toth, S. M. Tracton and T. Marchok,
1996: Objective
evaluation of the NCEP global ensemble forecasting system Preprints,
15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Norfolk, Virginia.