Precipitation skill scores for Feb 2018

NAM/GFS/CONUSNEST, 24h (12Z-12Z) Scores over CONUS:

• Equitable Threat and Bias
• Probability of Detection and False Alarm Ratio
• Eq. Threat with bias adjustments (top: Mesinger's; bottom: Brill's "odds ratio" conservation)

Fractions skill scores for NAM/GFS/CONUSNEST/CONUSNMMB/CONUSARW:

• 5mm/day
• 10mm/day
• 25mm/day
• 50mm/day

6-hourly fractions skill scores for NAM/GFS/CONUSNEST/CONUSNMMB/CONUSARW/HRRR:

Horizontal spatial scale
Threshold
	< 24km	< 52km	< 100km
> 2mm/6hr	X	X	X
> 5mm/6hr	X	X	X
> 10mm/6hr	X	X	X
> 20mm/6hr	X	X	X

24h ETS/Bias Scores, CONUSNMMB/CONUSARW/CONUSNEST

3-hourly Verification Scores vs. fcst hour, for amount > 0.1"/3hr, NAM/GFS/CONUSNEST/CONUSNMMB/CONUSARW/HRRR

3-hourly ConUS-averaged precip amount vs. fcst hour, for NAM/GFS/CONUSNEST/CONUSNMMB/CONUSARW/HRRR:

• 00Z cycles
• 12Z cycles

International model comparisons:

• Regional Models (NAM, CMC), 24+36+48h forecasts
• Global Models (GFS, CMCGLB, DWD, ECMWF, JMA, METFR, UKMO), 24+48h+72h forecasts

Regional 24h (12Z-12Z) Eq. Threat and Bias scores, NAM/GFS/CONUSNEST
Click on a ConUS region in the list under the map:

• APL (Appalachian Mountains)
• NEC (Northeast Coast)
• SEC (Southeast Coast)
• GMC (Gulf of Mexico Coast)
• MDW (Midwest)
• LMV (Lower Mississippi Valley)
• NPL (Northern Plains)
• SPL (Southern Plains)
• NMT (Northern Mountains)
• SMT (Southern Mountains)
• GRB (Great Basin)
• SWD (Southwest Desert)
• NWC (Northwest Coast)
• SWC (Southwest Coast)

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