Table of contents

Recent and Proposed Upgrades for the NOAA/NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Systems Jeff McQueen, Jun Du, Binbin Zhou, Geoff DiMego, Dusan Jovic, Matt Pyle and Hui-Ya Chuang Monday, December 05, 2005

Outline

Background of Change

SREF Team

Recent SREF Improvements

Recent SREF Improvements August 2005 (continued)

NCO Requirements

Proposed Upgrades

Rationale for WRF Configuration

Slide 10

Slide 11

Proposed WRF members

Ensemble Products

Additional GRIB Outputs for OB7/ WWE

Ensemble Mean Errors CONUS Errors by Forecast hr (Nov. 2005)

Ensemble Mean CONUS Errors w/ Height at 48 hours (Nov. 2005)

SREF Performance 48 h forecast Spread (Nov. 2005)

SREF Performance Statistical Consistency (Nov. 2005)

Statistical Consistency (Nov. 2005)

SREF Operational Performance Outlier Percentage 48 h forecasts (November 2005)

SREF Operational Performance Talagrand Ranked Histograms 48 h forecasts (November 2005)

Slide 22

SREF Operational Performance ETS and RPSS scores for the 12h-accumulated precipitation Ensemble mean fcst and prob fcst (over 5 categories) 15-mem vs 21-mem results in Oct and Nov

SREF Cold Season Case Study November 20, 2005 09 Z Run – MSLP (48 h forecast)

SREF Cold Season Case Study November 20, 2005 09 Z Run –Prop of Precip

SREF Cold Season Case Study November 20, 2005 09 Z Run

SREF Cold Season Case Study November 20, 2005 09 Z Run: 24 h precip

NWS Regional Comments

NCEP Service Center Evaluations HPC Pete Manousos

Slide 30

NCEP Service Center Evaluations - HPC

NCEP Service Center Evaluations SPC Steve Weiss/David Bright

Slide 33

NCEP Service Center Evaluations - SPC

Summary

Recommendations

Future Issues

Slide 38

Author: Jeff McQueen

E-mail: jeff.mcqueen@noaa.gov

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