Table of contents

Spring 2001 Change Package for Meso Eta CAFTI briefing

Spring 2001 Change Package

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3DVAR Status

3DVAR Changes

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Complete Statistical Results for ALL Tests of new 3DVAR

Fit to RAOBs 13 Aug - 12 Sep 2000 (22km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: new3DVAR)

Improvement in Warm Season Daily Precip scores, 13 Aug – 14 Sep 2000 (22km)

Fit to RAOBs 2 Feb - 01 Mar 2001 (22km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: new3DVAR)

Improvement in Cold Season Daily Precip scores, 2 Feb – 1 Mar 2001 (22km)

Example : 00Z 15 February 2001 cycle

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Assimilation of Observed Precipitation

Precipitation Assimilation Method

Assimilation of observed precipitation http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/papers/lin/pcpasm/paper.html

Major Findings

EDAS Total Precipitation 12Z 30 Jun - 12Z 15 Jul 1998

Precip for 30 Jun-15 Jul 1998 & Moisture Availability (%) on 15 July 1998

Improvement in EDAS Precipitation Monthly Total Precipitation (sum all 3 hr forecasts)

Improvement in EDAS Soil Moisture Soil Moisture and Availability

Improvement in Warm Season EDAS Precip scores, 12 Aug – 12 Sep 2000 (22km)

Improvement in EDAS Precipitation scores, 1 Apr – 10 May 2001 (22km)

Improvement on 6h Precipitation Forecast

Impact on Warm Season (22km) Daily Forecast Precipitation Scores 12 Aug – 12 Sep 2000

Impact on Daily Forecast Precipitation Scores 1 Apr – 10 May 2001 (22km)

Fit to RAOBs 15 Feb - 31 Mar 2001 (48km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: pptasm)

Fit to RAOBs 12 Aug - 15 Sep 2000 (22km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: pptasm)

Fit to RAOBs 1 Apr - 9 May 2001 (22km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: pptasm)

Coop Daily versus Sum of Hourly Analyses Using Gage & Radar Estimates 23August

Coop Daily versus Sum of Hourly Analyses Using Gage&Radar Estimates 29December

Assimilating ‘Snow’ Has Big Negative Impact on Quality of EDAS Precipitation

Assimilating ‘Snow’ Has Little Impact on Quality of Daily Precipitation Forecasts

Complete Statistical Results for ALL Tests of precipitation assimilation

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Fit to RAOBs 1 Feb - 2 Mar 2001 (22km) (Solid black: control; dashed red: new land-sfc)

Impact on Daily Forecast Precipitation Scores 13 Aug – 12 Sep 2000 (22km)

Complete Statistical Results for ALL Tests of new LSM

Preparations for Implementation

Tests of Full Bundle

Example : 00Z 16 August 2000 cycle

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Conclusions