The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each slightly different (i.e., perturbed) from the original forecast, in order to capture the range of possible forecast outcomes.
This webpage contains graphics from the GEFSv12 retrospective verification.
Please use the links on the left to navigate to GEFSv12 retrospective case studies.
Additional Information:
GEFSv12 will be the next operational version of GEFS. GEFSv12 will be run 4-times daily (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) with 31 ensemble members out to 16 days. One GEFSv12 run each day (i.e., 0000 UTC) will be extended out to 35 days.
The official evaluation of GEFSv12 is scheduled for Q2FY20.
GEFSv12 Official Evaluation Webpage: [click here].
