Tropical cyclone forecasting with AI

Dr. Ferran Alet
Google DeepMind
  3 June, 2026, 2pm

Abstract:


We will present the work on tropical cyclone forecasting at Google using global AI weather models. Trained on a combination of global analysis data and the IBTrACS historical cyclone dataset, our model generates large ensembles of possible global weather and cyclone scenarios extending 15 days into the future. Last season, we partnered with the National Hurricane Center to deploy our model live for forecasters to use. Our model was the best guidance last season on both track and intensity according to the NHC report. By providing state-of-the-art operational ensemble guidance to human forecasters, this work represents a step-change towards more reliable and timely forecasts and warnings that can help protect lives and mitigate the devastating impacts of tropical cyclones.