NOAA is advancing the development of the UFS-based Seasonal Forecast System (SFS), which is planned to replace the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) by 2027. This presentation will highlight recent progress in model development, with a focus on tuning the system for seasonal time scales.
As part of this effort, multiple reforecast experiments have been completed, demonstrating substantial improvements in forecast skill compared to CFSv2, particularly in representing major climate modes. We will highlight progress from these developmental runs, emphasizing both the forecast improvements achieved and the scientific and technical challenges that remain, including model biases, initialization strategies, and regions or phenomena with limited forecast skill.
Building on these encouraging results, NOAA is preparing to launch a near–real-time experimental version of SFS. This critical phase will enable evaluation of system performance under real-world conditions while addressing remaining issues prior to full operational implementation.