Current development of
JMA’s operational ensemble prediction systems
20 Sept, Noon in 2155
My talk mainly focuses on introducing the current
development of NWP systems which are operated by Climate Prediction
Division of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).
One of them is One-month Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), an
atmospheric global EPS used for the extended-range (from the second to
the fourth week) forecast. We are working to introduce one unified
global EPS unifying One-month EPS and two other EPSs operated in
Numerical Prediction Division, JMA (Typhoon EPS and One-week EPS). The
new global EPS will include the following upgrades: updated model
resolution and physics, initial perturbations from Ensemble Kalman
Filter combined with Singular Vectors perturbation, and newly
introduced perturbation on sea surface temperature.
The other system is JMA/MRI-CPS2 (Japan Meteorlorogical
Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System
version 2), a coupled EPS used for three-month prediction, warm and
cold season prediction and ENSO outlook. The system was implemented
into operation in June 2015, replacing the previous system
(JMA/MRI-CPS1). Thanks to the increased resolution and model
improvements, the system showed overall improvements compared to
JMA/MRI-CPS1, both in hindcast verification and operational forecasts.