Current development of JMA’s operational ensemble prediction systems

Takuma Yoshida
20 Sept, Noon in 2155

My talk mainly focuses on introducing the current development of NWP systems which are operated by Climate Prediction Division of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).

One of them is One-month Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), an atmospheric global EPS used for the extended-range (from the second to the fourth week) forecast. We are working to introduce one unified global EPS unifying One-month EPS and two other EPSs operated in Numerical Prediction Division, JMA (Typhoon EPS and One-week EPS). The new global EPS will include the following upgrades: updated model resolution and physics, initial perturbations from Ensemble Kalman Filter combined with Singular Vectors perturbation, and newly introduced perturbation on sea surface temperature.

The other system is JMA/MRI-CPS2 (Japan Meteorlorogical Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2), a coupled EPS used for three-month prediction, warm and cold season prediction and ENSO outlook. The system was implemented into operation in June 2015, replacing the previous system (JMA/MRI-CPS1). Thanks to the increased resolution and model improvements, the system showed overall improvements compared to JMA/MRI-CPS1, both in hindcast verification and operational forecasts.