Convective-scale Warn-on-Forecast: Vision to Reality
David J. Stensrud
Penn State University
Noon August 18 in Room 2155
Abstract: Warn-on-Forecast is a National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration project to extend severe weather warning
lead times by incorporating forecasts from a convection-allowing
ensemble modeling system into the warning decision process.
Initial results with convection-allowing ensembles that assimilate
radar observations have shown that while reasonable thunderstorm
analyses are produced, obtaining accurate very short-range thunderstorm
forecasts is more challenging. Results from several
warn-on-forecast data assimilation and prediction experiments and
real-time testing in the 2015 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed will be
shown to highlight the potential benefits and to outline the challenges
still ahead.