Convective-scale Warn-on-Forecast:  Vision to Reality

David J. Stensrud
Penn State University
Noon August 18 in Room 2155

Warn-on-Forecast is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration project to extend severe weather warning lead times by incorporating forecasts from a convection-allowing ensemble modeling system into the warning decision process.  Initial results with convection-allowing ensembles that assimilate radar observations have shown that while reasonable thunderstorm analyses are produced, obtaining accurate very short-range thunderstorm forecasts is more challenging.  Results from several warn-on-forecast data assimilation and prediction experiments and real-time testing in the 2015 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed will be shown to highlight the potential benefits and to outline the challenges still ahead.