The impact of prescribed SST on Hurricane Edouard (2014) forecast with HWRF

Jili Dong
1:30 pm July 21 in Room 2155

Different sources of SST products are used to drive Hurricane Edouard (2014) forecast using HWRF with 3 km resolution to investigate the impact of SST on tropical cyclone prediction. Over 10 cycles of forecasts, track and intensity prediction doesn’t show significant differences among those SST products, which include GFS, NCODA and RTOFS SST. However, in particular cycles, different SST products are able to affect Edouard’s structure and intensity forecast.

In the second part of this talk, a fully coupled HWRF-HYCOM system is used to examine the impact of 1D and 3D ocean models on hurricane forecasts in both an idealized framework and a real case (Hurricane Edouard 2014). The 1D HYCOM underestimates SST cooling due to the lack of Ekman pumping and the related ocean upwelling, leading to stronger storms prediction compared to the 3D ocean model.