OSSEs in Support of Improving Ocean Model Initialization for Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction

George Halliwell
Noon September 23 in NCWCP Conference Center

A new ocean Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) system has been set up in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean with the initial goal of determining the impact of existing and planned ocean observing systems on improving hurricane intensity forecasts. The capability of the system to provide credible impact assessments is demonstrated by comparing Observing System Experiments to OSSEs. Two types of OSSEs are being performed for the purpose of improving ocean model initialization in coupled hurricane forecast models: seasonal and storm-relative. Design characteristics of these OSSE types are presented along with a summary of early results during the 2009 hurricane season including Hurricane Bill. Future plans will be summarized.