Application
of the WRF and HWRF models for tropical cyclone development
Luis
M. Farfan
CICESE, Mexico
Noon October 2 in Room 2155
Abstract:
Tropical cyclones from the eastern Pacific basin may have tracks that
approach northwest Mexico and cause an impact on the population as well
as on the surrounding environment. In particular, during the last 66
years more than 40 cyclones moved over land across the Baja California
peninsula and most of them occurred in September. Therefore, they are
an important group of weather systems to monitor and forecast.
As part of the outreach activities provided by CICESE, we provide
support to emergency managers to better understand the observations of
storm structure and estimates of intensity changes. This includes the
analysis of real-time, high-resolution imagery from geostationary
satellites. Another component of this support is an interpretation of
the forecasts provided by the U.S. National Hurricane Center and the
Mexican Meteorological Service. This includes explaining the benefits,
limitations and cautions to be exercised with the information stated in
the official forecasts. Also, it implies a revision of the available
information (advisories, discussions and probabilities) as well as the
predictions derived from global-and regional-scale models in the ATCF
database.
Beginning with the season of 2014, simulations from the WRF (from ARW,
version 3.5) and HWRF (from DTC, version 3.5a) models are used to
predict weather conditions in Baja California. The input data is from
the GFS model and, because of limitations on computer and network
resources, the simulations are performed only once per day, with data
from 00 UTC for prediction times up to 120 hours. Basically, we
concentrate on making graphical products to show the spatial
distribution of wind fields as well as the evolution of precipitation
over the southern peninsula: 23-28°N. Also, there are comparisons
between our tracks and those derived from ATCF including the official
forecasts.
During this talk, examples from the HWRF model performance with respect
to landfall events from the period 2006-2010 will be provided. Also, we
will discuss preliminary results from 2014 as well as future plans for
upcoming seasons.
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