Multi-model Short-range ensemble forecasting at Spanish Met Institute

Jose A. Garcia-Moya
Spanish Meteorological Institute


The forecast of extreme mesoscale events have an increased interest of the general public. Mesoscale models have problems to deal with such events because their predictability is very low even in the short-range. In such environment, probabilistic forecast can help to address the issue. Multi-model ensemble prediction systems are showing to be very useful to add some probabilistic value to the mesoscale deterministic models. At INM (the Spanish Meteorological Service) we’re setting up a multi-model ensemble prediction system focused on weather forecast up to 72 hours. The presentation will show the status of the system and results of the operational verification from January to June 2006. INM has the intention to declare the system fully operational at the beginning of 2007.