Ensembles, Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation, Model Post-Processing, and Regional NWP:  Initial Results of the University of Washington CSTAR Project

Greg Hakim

Cliff Mass

University of Washington

This presentation will give a mid-project status report on results of the University of Washington/NWS CSTAR project on regional weather analysis and prediction.  Specifically, this presentation will describe: 

1.  An operational Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation/prediction system that has been running for four months. 
2.  High-resolution numerical weather prediction over the
Pacific Northwest
using MM5 and WRF, including a comparison of their performance.
3.  A grid-based bias removal system suitable for high-resolution mesoscale models.
4.  An evaluation of a regional high-resolution mesoscale ensembles system based on the operational analyses/forecasts of several operational centers

5.  Regional data collection, quality control and verification research and operations.