Forecast Skill and Sun-Earth Connections

Al Powell and Ming Chen



The Sun-Earth connection for the lower atmosphere has eluded researchers. This seminar will show the results of an analysis that shows changes in the Earth's atmosphere consistent with a Sun-Earth connection. This connection was first observed in the satellite data and expanded to use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data in the analysis to obtain a longer period of record. A proposed, simplistic Sun-Earth mechanism will be outlined and the analysis results will be shown for the solar 11-year and 28-day solar rotational cycles. Because the proposed Sun-Earth mechanism should also show impacts on an annual basis, the results of annual changes in the lower atmosphere will be presented to demonstrate consistency with the mechanism. Several animations of the analysis results will be shown so that time sequences can be observed. In addition, a link to forecast skill impacts will be suggested based on an analysis of the anomaly correlation data for the forecast model runs using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.