Environmental Modeling Center, NWS

SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OPERATIONAL GLOBAL FORECASTS FOR DECEMBER 2007 Area-averaged errors
Zonal means

Regional height errors
Regional temperature errors
Regional zonal wind errors
Regional wind errors
Regional relative humidity errors
Regional vertical velocity errors
Regional horizontal divergence errors
Longitude-time diagrams
Transient eddy kinetic energy
Root-mean-square wind errors

MODEL PHYSICS

PRECIPITATION
Precipitation
United States Precipitation
Evaporation
Sensible Heat
2 Meter and Skin Temperature
Precipitable Water
CLOUDS
Low clouds
Middle clouds
High clouds
Total cloud cover
Zonal sfc stress
Meridional sfc stress
Zonal 10m wind
Meridional 10m wind
10m wind speed
10m wind horizontal divergence
Outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere
Net shortwave radiation at the surface
Net longwave radiation at the surface
Net heat flux at the surface

AREA-AVERAGED ERRORS verified against global analyses

TEMPERATURE	TEMPERATURE OVER LAND	TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN
global	global	global
60-90N	60-90N	60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S
60-90S	60-90S	60-90S

ZONAL WIND	ZONAL WIND OVER LAND	ZONAL WIND OVER OCEAN
global	global	global
60-90N	60-90N	60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S
60-90S	60-90S	60-90S

WIND MAGNITUDE	WIND MAGNITUDE OVER LAND	WIND MAGNITUDE OVER OCEAN
global	global	global
60-90N	60-90N	60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S
60-90S	60-90S	60-90S

ZONAL MEAN DRIFTS IN HEIGHT verified against global analyses

ZONAL MEAN	ZONAL MEAN OVER LAND	ZONAL MEAN OVER OCEAN
100 hPa	100 hPa	100 hPa
500 hPa	500 hPa	500 hPa

AREA-AVERAGED DRIFTS IN HEIGHT verified against global analyses

HEIGHT	HEIGHT OVER LAND	HEIGHT OVER OCEAN
global	global	global
60-90N	60-90N	60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
20S-20N	20S-20N	20S-20N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S
60-90S	60-90S	60-90S

500 hPa, 40N

40N 75W	40N 135W	40N 120E
500 hPa 75W	500 hPa 135W	500 hPa 120E

ZONAL MEAN DRIFTS IN TEMPERATURE verified against global analyses

ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE	ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE OVER LAND	ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN
100 hPa	100 hPa	100 hPa
200 hPa	200 hPa	200 hPa
500 hPa	500 hPa	500 hPa
600 hPa	600 hPa	600 hPa
700 hPa	700 hPa	700 hPa
850 hPa	850 hPa	850 hPa
925 hPa	925 hPa	925 hPa

AREA-AVERAGED DRIFTS IN TEMPERATURE verified against global analyses

TEMPERATURE	TEMPERATURE OVER LAND	TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN
global	global	global
60-90N	60-90N	60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
20S-20N	20S-20N	20S-20N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S
60-90N	60-90N	60-90N

40N	30S	77.5S
		600 hPa
700 hPa	700 hPa
850 hPa	850 hPa
900 hPa	900 hPa
925 hPa	925 hPa	925 hPa

40N 80W	40N 110W	40N 115E
850 hPa 80W	850 hPa 110W	850 hPa 115E

ZONAL MEAN FIELDS verified against global analyses

HEIGHT 000 GMT	HEIGHT 1200 GMT	TEMPERATURE 000 GMT	TEMPERATURE 1200 GMT	ZONAL WIND	MERID WIND	REL HUMID	VERT MOTION	HORIZ DIV 000 GMT	HORIZ DIV 1200 GMT
				anl, 7dy means	anl, 1dy means		anl, 1dy means	anl, 1dy means	anl, 12 hr means
					6 hr means		6 hr means	6 hr means
				anl, 15dy means	3dy, 5dy means		3dy, 5dy means	3dy, 7dy means	2.5, 6.5 dy means
					7dy, 8dy means		7dy, 8dy means
					10dy, 15dy means	anl, 15dy means	10dy, 15dy means	anl, 15dy means	anl, 14.5dy means
6hr error		6hr error		6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error
1, 3 dy error	12, 60 hr error	1, 3 dy error	12, 60 hr error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	12, 60 hr error
5, 7 dy error	4.5, 6.5 dy error	5, 7 dy error	4.5, 6.5 dy error	5, 7 dy error	5 dy error	5, 7 dy error	5, 7 dy error	5, 7 dy error	4.5, 6.5 dy error
7 dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5 dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy	7 dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5 dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy		7, 8 dy error	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	8 dy error, 8dy-7dy	8 dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5 dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy
10, 15 dy error	9.5, 14.5 dy error	10, 15 dy error	9.5, 14.5 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	9.5, 14.5 dy error

LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS OF ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

45N 000 GMT	45N 1200 GMT	EQUATOR 000 GMT	EQUATOR 1200 GMT	45S 000 GMT	45S 1200 GMT
anl,15dy fcst	anl,14.5dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,14.5dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,14.5dy fcst
6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error
1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error
5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error
10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error

TEMPERATURE

60N 000 GMT	60N 1200 GMT	45N 000 GMT	45N 1200 GMT	30N 000 GMT	30N 1200 GMT	EQUATOR 000 GMT	EQUATOR 1200 GMT	30S 000 GMT	30S 1200 GMT	60S 000 GMT	60S 1200 GMT
anl,15dy mean	anl,14.5dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,14.5dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,14.5dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,14.5dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,14.5dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,14.5dy mean
6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error
1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error
5,7dy error	4.5,6.5 error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5 error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5 error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5 error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5 error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5 error
10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

25N 000 GMT	25N 1200 GMT	5N 000 GMT	5N 1200 GMT	10S 000 GMT	10S 1200 GMT	30S 000 GMT	30S 1200 GMT
anl,1dy mean	anl,12hr mean	anl,1dy mean	anl,12hr mean	anl,1dy mean	anl,12hr mean	anl,1dy mean	anl,12hr mean
6 hr mean		6 hr mean		6 hr mean		6 hr mean
3,7dy mean	2.5,6.5dy mean	3,7dy mean	2.5,6.5dy mean	3,7dy mean	2.5,6.5dy mean	3,7dy mean	2.5,6.5dy mean
10,15dy mean	9.5,14.5dy mean	10,15dy mean	9.5,14.5dy mean	10,15dy mean	9.5,14.5dy mean	10,15dy mean	9.5,14.5dy mean
6hr error		6hr error		6hr error		6hr error
1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error
5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error
10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error

EQUATOR

ZONAL WIND	MERID WIND	REL HUMID	VERT VELOC
anl,7dy mean	anl,7dy mean		anl,1dy mean
			6 hr mean
			3,5dy mean
			7,8dy mean
anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	10dy,15dy mean
6 hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
			8dy,8dy-7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

REGIONAL ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

semi-diurnal tide in analysis	semi-diurnal tide in 6hr fcsts	semi-diurnal tide in 12hr fcsts	semi-diurnal tide in 18hr fcsts
difference in semi-diurnal tide 6hr fcsts minus analysis	difference in semi-diurnal tide 12hr fcsts minus analysis	difference in semi-diurnal tide 18hr fcsts minus analysis	difference in semi-diurnal tide 24hr fcsts minus analysis
difference in zonal mean hgt 6h-anl 4 times a day	difference in zonal mean hgt 12h-6h 4 times a day	difference in zonal mean hgt 18h-12h 4 times a day	difference in zonal mean hgt 24h-18h 4 times a day
difference in zonal mean hgt 6h-anl 4 times a day	difference in zonal mean hgt 12h-anl 4 times a day	difference in zonal mean hgt 18h-anl 4 times a day	difference in zonal mean hgt 24h-anl 4 times a day

500 mb 0000 GMT	500 mb 0600 GMT	500 mb 1200 GMT	500 mb 1800 GMT	500 mb 4 times GMT
6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error
12hr error	12hr error	12hr error	12hr error	12hr error
18hr error	18hr error	18hr error	18hr error	18hr error
24hr error	24hr error	24hr error	24hr error	24hr error
anl minus 4 times average	anl minus 4 times average	anl minus 4 times average	anl minus 4 times average
6hr minus 4 times average	6hr minus 4 times average	6hr minus 4 times average	6hr minus 4 times average
12hr minus 4 times average	12hr minus 4 times average	12hr minus 4 times average	12hr minus 4 times average
18hr minus 4 times average	18hr minus 4 times average	18hr minus 4 times average	18hr minus 4 times average
24hr minus 4 times average	24hr minus 4 times average	24hr minus 4 times average	24hr minus 4 times average
z 500 6h minus anl 4 times average	z 500 12h minus 6h 4 times average	z 500 18h minus 12h 4 times average	z 500 24h minus 18h 4 times average

TEMPERATURE (underground masked out)

6hr error	12 hr error	18 hour error	24 hour error 1800 GMT
zonal mean	zonal mean	zonal mean	zonal mean
62.5N	62.5N	62.5N	62.5N
900 hPa	900 hPa	900 hPa	900 hPa
Ice	Snow

Wind Magnitude (underground masked out)

analysis	6hr error	12 hr error	18 hour error	24 hour error 1800 GMT
zonal mean	zonal mean	zonal mean	zonal mean	zonal mean

Horizontal Divergence (underground masked out)

analysis	6hr error	12 hr error	18 hour error	24 hour error 1800 GMT
zonal mean	zonal mean	zonal mean	zonal mean	zonal mean
150 hPa	150 hPa	150 hPa	150 hPa	150 hPa
200 hPa	200 hPa	200 hPa	200 hPa	200 hPa
250 hPa	250 hPa	250 hPa	250 hPa	250 hPa
0-15N	0-15N	0-15N	0-15N	0-15N

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

1000 mb 000 GMT	1000 mb 1200 GMT	500 mb 000 GMT	500 mb 1200 GMT	250 mb 000 GMT	250 mb 1200 GMT	100 mb 000 GMT	100 mb 1200 GMT	50 mb 000 GMT	50 mb 1200 GMT	10 mb 000 GMT	10 mb 1200 GMT
anl,15dy fcst		anl,15dy fcst		anl,15dy fcst
6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error
1dy,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1dy,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1dy,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1dy,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1dy,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1dy,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error
5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error
8dy,8dy-7dy error	7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error	8dy,8dy-7dy error	7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error	8dy,8dy-7dy error	7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error	8dy,8dy-7dy error	7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error	8dy,8dy-7dy error	7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error	8dy,8dy-7dy error	7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error
10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

1000 mb	500 mb	250 mb	100 mb	50 mb	10 mb
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
3dy,5dy fcst	3dy,5dy fcst	3dy,5dy fcst
7dy,10dy fcst	7dy,10dy fcst	7dy,10dy fcst
6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
8dy,8dy-7dy error	8dy,8dy-7dy error	8dy,8dy-7dy error	8dy,8dy-7dy error	8dy,8dy-7dy error	8dy,8dy-7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

1000 mb 000 GMT	1000 mb 1200 GMT	925 mb 000 GMT	925 mb 1200 GMT	850 mb 000 GMT	850 mb 1200 GMT	700 mb 000 GMT	700 mb 1200 GMT	500 mb 000 GMT	500 mb 1200 GMT
anl,15dy fcst				anl,15dy fcst				anl,15dy fcst
6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error
1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12h, 2.5dy error
5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error
8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy
10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error

300 mb 000 GMT	300 mb 1200 GMT	200 mb 000 GMT	200 mb 1200 GMT	100 mb 000 GMT	100 mb 1200 GMT	50 mb 000 GMT	50 mb 1200 GMT	10 mb 000 GMT	10 mb 1200 GMT
6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error		6 hr error
1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error	1,3dy error	12 hr, 2.5dy error
5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error
8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy
10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

1000 mb	925 mb	850 mb	700 mb	500 mb
anl,15dy fcst		anl,15dy fcst		anl,15dy fcst
		3dy,5dy fcst
		7dy,10dy fcst
6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
8dy error, 8dy-7dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

300 mb	200 mb	100 mb	50 mb	10 mb
6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
8dy error, 8dy-7dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

ZONAL WIND

850 mb	250 mb	150 mb
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb	250 mb	150 mb
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
3dy,5dy fcst	3dy,5dy fcst
7dy,10dy fcst	7dy,10dy fcst
6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

VECTOR WIND

850 mb	150 mb
anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere	anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere
anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere	anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere
6 hr error	6 hr error
1dy error	1dy error
3dy error	3dy error
5dy error	5dy error
7dy error	7dy error
10dy error	10dy error
15dy error	15dy error

WIND STREAMFUNCTION

850 mb	150 mb
anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere	anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere
anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere	anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere
6 hr error	6 hr error
1dy error	1dy error
3dy error	3dy error
5dy error	5dy error
7dy error	7dy error
10dy error	10dy error
15dy error	15dy error

NORTH AMERICA

925 mb	850 mb	700 mb	500 mb	200 mb	150 mb
				climatology
anl,1dy fcst	anl,1dy fcst	anl,1dy fcst	anl,1dy fcst	anl,1dy fcst	anl,1dy fcst
3, 5dy fcst	3, 5dy fcst	3, 5dy fcst	3, 5dy fcst	3, 5dy fcst	3 ,5dy fcst
7, 10dy fcst	7, 10dy fcst	7, 10dy fcst	7, 10dy fcst	7, 10dy fcst	7, 10dy fcst
15dy fcst	15dy fcst	15dy fcst	15dy fcst	15dy fcst	15dy fcst
1, 3dy error	1, 3dy error	1, 3dy error	1, 3dy error	1, 3dy error	1, 3dy error
5, 7dy error	5, 7dy error	5, 7dy error	5, 7dy error	5, 7dy error	5, 7dy error
10, 15dy error	10, 15dy error	10, 15dy error	10, 15dy error	10, 15dy error	10, 15dy error

NORTH AMERICA WIND CROSS-SECTIONS

U at 15N	V at 30N
anl,7dy fcst	anl,7dy fcst
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
1, 3dy error	1, 3dy error
5, 7dy error	5, 7dy error
10, 15dy error	10, 15dy error

RELATIVE HUMIDITY

925 mb	850 mb	400 mb	150 mb
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
8dy, 8dy-7dy error	8dy, 8dy-7dy error	8dy, 8dy-7dy error	8dy, 8dy-7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

VERTICAL VELOCITY

850 mb	500 mb
anl,1dy fcst	anl,1dy fcst
6 hr fcst	6 hr fcst
3,5dy fcst	3,5dy fcst
7,8dy fcst	7,8dy fcst
10dy,15dy fcst	10dy,15dy fcst
6 hr error	6 hr error
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error
8dy, 8dy-7dy error	8dy, 8dy-7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

200 mb 000 GMT	200 mb 1200 GMT	150 mb 000 GMT	150 mb 1200 GMT
anl,1dy fcst	anl,12hr fcst	anl,1dy fcst	anl,12hr fcst
6 hr fcst		6 hr fcst
3,7dy fcst	2.5,6.5dy fcst	3,7dy fcst	2.5,6.5dy fcst
anl,15dy fcst	anl,14.5dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,14.5dy fcst
6 hr error		6 hr error
1dy,3dy error	12hr, 2.5dy error	1dy,3dy error	12hr, 2.5dy error
5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error	5,7dy error	4.5,6.5dy error
8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy	8dy error, 8dy-7dy	7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy
10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error	10,15dy error	9.5,14.5dy error

LONGITUDE-TIME DIAGRAMS

Geopotential Height 500 hPa

40N	analyses	5dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts
50S	analyses	5dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts

Temperature 850 hPa

35N	analyses	5dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts
50S	analyses	5dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts

Zonal Wind 850 mb

15N

analyses for 6 hr fcsts	analyses for 1 dy fcsts	analyses for 3 dy fcsts	analyses for 5 dy fcsts	analyses for 7 dy fcsts	analyses for 8 dy fcsts	analyses for 10 dy fcsts	analyses for 15 dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hr fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6 hr fcsts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hr fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6 hr fcsts	analyses for 1dy forecasts	analyses for 3dy forecasts	analyses for 5dy forecasts	analyses for 7dy forecasts	analyses for 8dy forecasts	analyses for 10dy forecasts	analyses for 15dy forecasts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hr fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

Meridional Wind 850 mb

15N

analyses for 6 hr fcsts	analyses for 1 dy fcsts	analyses for 3 dy fcsts	analyses for 5 dy fcsts	analyses for 7 dy fcsts	analyses for 8 dy fcsts	analyses for 10 dy fcsts	analyses for 15 dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hr fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6 hr fcsts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hr fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6 hr fcsts	analyses for 1dy forecasts	analyses for 3dy forecasts	analyses for 5dy forecasts	analyses for 7dy forecasts	analyses for 8dy forecasts	analyses for 10dy forecasts	analyses for 15dy forecasts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hr fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

Zonal Wind 200 mb

60N

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy forecasts	analyses for 3dy forecasts	analyses for 5dy forecasts	analyses for 7dy forecasts	analyses for 8dy forecasts	analyses for 10dy forecasts	analyses for 15dy forecasts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hour fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hour fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hour fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hour fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hour fcsts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6 hour fcsts	errors in 1dy fcsts	errors in 3dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts	errors in 7dy fcsts	errors in 8dy fcsts	errors in 10dy fcsts	errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 dy fcsts	3 dy fcsts	5 dy fcsts	7 dy fcsts	8 dy fcsts	10 dy fcsts	15 dy fcsts
errors in 6 hour fcsts	errors in 1dy fcsts	errors in 3dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts	errors in 7dy fcsts	errors in 8dy fcsts	errors in 10dy fcsts	errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 dy fcsts	3 dy fcsts	5 dy fcsts	7 dy fcsts	8 dy fcsts	10 dy fcsts	15 dy fcsts
errors in 6 hour fcsts	errors in 1 dy fcsts	errors in 3 dy fcsts	errors in 5 dy fcsts	errors in 7 dy fcsts	errors in 8 dy fcsts	errors in 10 dy fcsts	errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 dy fcsts	3 dy fcsts	5 dy fcsts	7 dy fcsts	8 dy fcsts	10 dy fcsts	15 dy fcsts
errors in 6 hour fcsts	errors in 1dy fcsts	errors in 3dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts	errors in 7dy fcsts	errors in 8dy fcsts	errors in 10dy fcsts	errors in 15dy fcsts

Zonal Wind 200 mb 5dy running means

60N

analyses for 1dy forecasts	analyses for 3dy forecasts	analyses for 5dy forecasts	analyses for 7dy forecasts	analyses for 8dy forecasts	analyses for 10dy forecasts	analyses for 15dy forecasts
1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 1dy fcsts	errors in 3dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts	errors in 7dy fcsts	errors in 8dy fcsts	errors in 10dy fcsts	errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
1 dy fcsts	3 dy fcsts	5 dy fcsts	7 dy fcsts	8 dy fcsts	10 dy fcsts	15 dy fcsts
errors in 1dy fcsts	errors in 3dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts	errors in 7dy fcsts	errors in 8dy fcsts	errors in 10dy fcsts	errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
1 dy fcsts	3 dy fcsts	5 dy fcsts	7 dy fcsts	8 dy fcsts	10 dy fcsts	15 dy fcsts
errors in 1 dy fcsts	errors in 3 dy fcsts	errors in 5 dy fcsts	errors in 7 dy fcsts	errors in 8 dy fcsts	errors in 10 dy fcsts	errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
1 dy fcsts	3 dy fcsts	5 dy fcsts	7 dy fcsts	8 dy fcsts	10 dy fcsts	15 dy fcsts
errors in 1dy fcsts	errors in 3dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts	errors in 7dy fcsts	errors in 8dy fcsts	errors in 10dy fcsts	errors in 15dy fcsts

Meridional Wind 200 mb

60N

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy forecasts	analyses for 3dy forecasts	analyses for 5dy forecasts	analyses for 7dy forecasts	analyses for 8dy forecasts	analyses for 10dy forecasts	analyses for 15dy forecasts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6hr forecasts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6hr forecasts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6hr forecasts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6hr forecasts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6hr forecasts	errors in 1 day fcsts	errors in 3 day fcsts	errors in 5 day fcsts	errors in 7 day fcsts	errors in 8 day fcsts	errors in 10 day fcsts	errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 day fcsts	3 day fcsts	5 day fcsts	7 day fcsts	8 day fcsts	10 day fcsts	15 day fcsts
errors in 6hr forecasts	errors in 1dy fcsts	errors in 3dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts	errors in 7dy fcsts	errors in 8dy fcsts	errors in 10dy fcsts	errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 dy fcsts	3 dy fcsts	5 dy fcsts	7 dy fcsts	8 dy fcsts	10 dy fcsts	15 dy fcsts
errors in 6hr forecasts	errors in 1dy fcsts	errors in 3dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts	errors in 7dy fcsts	errors in 8dy fcsts	errors in 10dy fcsts	errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 dy fcsts	3 dy fcsts	5 dy fcsts	7 dy fcsts	8 dy fcsts	10 dy fcsts	15 dy fcsts
errors in 6hr forecasts	errors in 1 dy fcsts	errors in 3 dy fcsts	errors in 5 dy fcsts	errors in 7 dy fcsts	errors in 8 dy fcsts	errors in 10 dy fcsts	errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 6hr forecasts	analyses for 1dy fcsts	analyses for 3dy fcsts	analyses for 5dy fcsts	analyses for 7dy fcsts	analyses for 8dy fcsts	analyses for 10dy fcsts	analyses for 15dy fcsts
	1 dy fcsts	3 dy fcsts	5 dy fcsts	7 dy fcsts	8 dy fcsts	10 dy fcsts	15 dy fcsts
errors in 6hr forecasts	errors in 1dy fcsts	errors in 3dy fcsts	errors in 5dy fcsts	errors in 7dy fcsts	errors in 8dy fcsts	errors in 10dy fcsts	errors in 15dy fcsts

TRANSIENT EDDY KINETIC ENERGY

area average	area ave normalized by inital teke mb
global	global
30-60N	30-60N
20S-20N	20S-20N
30-60S	30-60S

zonal mean	850 mb	200 mb
anl, 5dy fcst	anl, 5dy fcst	anl, 5dy fcst
10, 15dy fcst	10, 15dy fcst	10, 15dy fcst
6hr fcst errors	6hr fcst errors	6hr fcst errors
1dy, 3dy fcst errors	1dy, 3dy fcst errors	1dy, 3dy fcst errors
5dy, 7dy fcst errors	5dy, 7dy fcst errors	5dy, 7dy fcst errors
8dy, 10dy fcst errors	8dy, 10dy fcst errors	8dy, 10dy fcst errors
15dy fcst errors	15dy fcst errors	15dy fcst errors

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb	200 mb
anl, 5dy fcst	anl, 5dy fcst
10, 15dy fcst	10, 15dy fcst
1dy, 3dy fcst errors	1dy, 3dy fcst errors
5dy, 7dy fcst errors	5dy, 7dy fcst errors
8dy, 10dy fcst errors	8dy, 10dy fcst errors
15dy fcst errors	15dy fcst errors

TRANSIENT EDDY KINETIC ENERGY IN THE TROPICS

zonal mean	850 mb	200 mb	equator
anl, 5dy fcst	anl, 5dy fcst	anl, 5dy fcst	anl, 5dy fcst
6hr fcst errors	6hr fcst errors	6hr fcst errors	6hr fcst
1dy, 3dy fcst errors	1dy, 3dy fcst errors	1dy, 3dy fcst errors	1dy, 3dy fcst
5dy, 7dy fcst errors	5dy, 7dy fcst errors	5dy, 7dy fcst errors	5dy, 7dy fcst

TRANSIENT EDDY MERIDIONAL HEAT FLUX

zonal mean	850 mb
anl, 5dy fcst	anl, 5dy fcst
10, 15dy fcst	10, 15dy fcst
6hr fcst errors	6hr fcst errors
1dy, 3dy fcst errors	1dy, 3dy fcst errors
5dy, 7dy fcst errors	5dy, 7dy fcst errors
8dy, 10dy fcst errors	8dy, 10dy fcst errors
15dy fcst errors	15dy fcst errors

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb
anl, 5dy fcst
10, 15dy fcst
1dy, 3dy fcst errors
5dy, 7dy fcst errors
8dy, 10dy fcst errors
15dy fcst errors

TRANSIENT EDDY POLEWARD FLUX OF ZONAL MOMENTUM

zonal mean	200 mb
anl, 5dy fcst	anl, 5dy fcst
10, 15dy fcst	10, 15dy fcst
6hr fcst errors	6hr fcst errors
1dy, 3dy fcst errors	1dy, 3dy fcst errors
5dy, 7dy fcst errors	5dy, 7dy fcst errors
8dy, 10dy fcst errors	8dy, 10dy fcst errors
15dy fcst errors	15dy fcst errors

STATIONARY EDDY KINETIC ENERGY

STATIONARY EDDY HEAT FLUX

STATIONARY EDDY MOMENTUM FLUX

RMS WIND ERROR

850 mb	200 mb
6hr fcst	6hr fcst
1dy fcst	1dy fcst
3dy fcst	3dy fcst
5dy fcst	5dy fcst
7dy fcst	7dy fcst
8dy fcst	8dy fcst
10dy fcst	10dy fcst
15dy fcst	15dy fcst
NORMALIZED
850 mb	200 mb
6hr fcst	6hr fcst
1dy fcst	1dy fcst
3dy fcst	3dy fcst
5dy fcst	5dy fcst
7dy fcst	7dy fcst
8dy fcst	8dy fcst
10dy fcst	10dy fcst
15dy fcst	15dy fcst

AREA-AVERAGED CLOUD LIQUID WATER MIXING RATIO

Cloud Liquid Water	Cloud Liquid Water Over Land	Cloud Liquid Water Over Ocean
global	global	global
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S

ZONAL MEAN CLOUD LIQUID WATER MIXING RATIO

anl and 6-hr fcst	6h and 1dy minus anl	1dy and 3dy minus 6hrl
7dy and 8dy	7dy-anl and 8d-7d
5dy and 15dy	3dy-anl and 5d-anl	5dy and 7dy minus 6hr
	10dy-anl and 15d-anl	10dy and 15dy minus 6hr

AREA-AVERAGED CLOUD LIQUID WATER DRIFTS

Cloud Liquid Water	Cloud Liquid Water OVER LAND	Cloud Liquid Water OVER OCEAN
global	global	global
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
20S-20N	20S-20N	20S-20N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S

40N	30S
850 hPa	800 hPa
900 hPa
925 hPa	925 hPa

40N 80W	40N 110W	40N 115E
850 hPa 80W	850 hPa 110W	850 hPa 115E

MODEL PHYSICS

GLOBAL MEAN DRIFTS

gbl mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-180h	gbl mean precip every 12 hrs 192h-384h
24 hr mean gbl mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean gbl mean precip every 12 hrs 192h-384h
gbl mean evap every 6 hrs 6h-180h	gbl mean evap every 12 hrs 192h-384h
24 hr mean gbl mean evap every 12 hrs 192h-384h	24 hr mean gbl mean evap every 12 hrs 192h-384h
gbl mean P,E every 6 hrs 6h-180h	gbl mean P,E every 12 hrs 192h-384h
24 hr mean gbl mean P,E every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean gbl mean P,E every 12 hrs 192h-384h
gbl mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-180h	gbl mean precip water every 12 hrs 192h-384h
24 hr mean gbl mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean gbl mean precip water every 12 hrs 192h-384h

AREA MEAN DRIFTS

precip 30-60N every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean precip 30-60N every 6 hrs 6h-180h
precip 20S-20N every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean precip 20S-20N every 6 hrs 6h-180h
precip 30-60S every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean precip 30-60S every 6 hrs 6h-180h

ZONAL MEAN DRIFTS

zonal mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean zonal mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-180h
zonal mean precip drift every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean zonal mean precip drift every 6 hrs 6h-180h
zonal mean evap every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean zonal mean evap every 6 hrs 6-180h
zonal mean evap drift every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean zonal mean evap drift every 6 hrs 6-180h
zonal mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean zonal mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-180h
zonal mean precip water drift every 6 hrs 6h-180h	24 hr mean zonal mean precip water drift every 6 hrs 6h-180h

PRECIPITATION

global mean precipitation	global mean precipitation,evaporation every 12 hours
znl mean precip	0-6hr,0-24hr	dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg
znl mean land, ocean	48-72hr,96-120hr	dy5-fg,dy10-fg
znl mean precip OPI/CAMS	216-240hr,336-360hr	dy15-fg
OPI/CAMS estimate
znl mean precip 6hr, OPI/CAMS	0-6hr, OPI precip	0-6hr,0-24hr minus OPI precip
znl mean precip 6hr, OPI/CAMS land, ocean	2-3dy,4-5dy minus OPI precip	9-10dy,14-15dy minus OPI precip

PRECIPITATION SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean precipitation	zonal mean land precipitation	zonal mean ocean precipitation
precip 0-6h	precip 6-12h	precip 12-18h	precip 18-24h
precip 6-12h minus 0-6h	precip 12-18h minus 0-6h	precip 18-24h minus 0-6h	precip 12-18h minus 6-12h	precip 18-24h minus 12-18h

UNITED STATES PRECIPITATION

0-6hr,0-24hr	dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg
48-72hr,96-120hr	dy5-fg,dy10-fg
216-240hr,336-360hr	dy15-fg
0-6h, OPI estimate	0-6h,0-24h minus OPI estimate
2-3d, 4-5d minus OPI estimate	9-10d, 14-15d minus OPI estimate

EVAPORATION

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean	COADS climatology	dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

LATENT HEAT SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean latent heat	zonal mean land latent heat	zonal mean ocean latent heat
latent heat 0-6h	latent heat 6-12h	latent heat 12-18h	latent heat 18-24h
latent heat 6-12h minus 0-6h	latent heat 12-18h minus 0-6h	latent heat 18-24h minus 0-6h	latent heat 12-18h minus 6-12h	latent heat 18-24h minus 12-18h

SENSIBLE HEAT

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean	COADS climatology	dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

2 METER AND SKIN TEMPERATURE

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 2m	dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 skin
dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 2m	dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 skin

SURFACE SKIN TEMPERTATURE SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

	0-6h	18-24h
6-12h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 0-6h	18-24h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 6-12h	18-24h minus 12-18h

2-METER TEMPERTATURE SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

	0-6h	18-24h
6-12h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 0-6h	18-24h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 6-12h	18-24h minus 12-18h

T2M MINUS TSFC SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

	0-6h	18-24h
6-12h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 0-6h	18-24h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 6-12h	18-24h minus 12-18h

PRECIPITABLE WATER

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

PRECIPITABLE WATER SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h			18-24h
6-12h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 0-6h	18-24h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 6-12h	18-24h minus 12-18h

GLOBAL MEAN CLOUDS

global mean clouds	land clouds	ocean clouds

LOW CLOUDS

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean low clouds ISCCP	low clouds ISCCP	dy5-fg
zonal mean nephanalyses	zonal mean land, ocean	day10-fg,dy15-fg
zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean	nephanalyses and gdas	NESDIS clavr and TOVS
gdas minus nephanalyses, gdas minus clavr	gdas minus TOVS, tovs minus Air Force	clavr minus Air Force, clavr minus tovs

LOW CLOUD SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean	zonal mean land	zonal mean ocean
low cloud 0-6h	low cloud 6-12h	low cloud 12-18h	low cloud 18-24h
low cloud 6-12h minus 0-6h	low cloud 12-18h minus 0-6h	low cloud 18-24h minus 0-6h	low cloud 12-18h minus 6-12h	low cloud 18-24h minus 12-18h

MIDDLE CLOUDS

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean	middle clouds ISCCP	dy5-fg
zonal mean nephanalyses	zonal mean ISSCP	day10-fg,dy15-fg
zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean	nephanalyses and gdas	NESDIS clavr and TOVS
gdas minus nephanalyses, gdas minus clavr	gdas minus TOVS, tovs minus Air Force	clavr minus Air Force, clavr minus tovs

MIDDLE CLOUD SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean	zonal mean land	zonal mean ocean
middle cloud 0-6h	middle cloud 6-12h	middle cloud 12-18h	middle cloud 18-24h
middle cloud 6-12h minus 0-6h	middle cloud 12-18h minus 0-6h	middle cloud 18-24h minus 0-6h	middle cloud 12-18h minus 6-12h	middle cloud 18-24h minus 12-18h

HIGH CLOUDS

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean	high clouds ISCCP	dy5-fg
zonal mean nephanalyses	zonal mean high clouds ISCCP	dy10-fg,dy15-fg
zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean	nephanalyses and gdas	NESDIS clavr and TOVS
gdas minus nephanalyses, gdas minus clavr	gdas minus TOVS, tovs minus Air Force	clavr minus Air Force, clavr minus tovs

HIGH CLOUD SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean	zonal mean land	zonal mean ocean
high cloud 0-6h	high cloud 6-12h	high cloud 12-18h	high cloud 18-24h
high cloud 6-12h minus 0-6h	high cloud 12-18h minus 0-6h	high cloud 18-24h minus 0-6h	high cloud 12-18h minus 6-12h	high cloud 18-24h minus 12-18h

TOTAL CLOUD COVER

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean	clouds ISCCP	dy5-fg
zonal mean nephanalyses	zonal mean clouds ISCCP	dy10-fg,dy15-fg
zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean	nephanalyses and gdas	NESDIS clavr and TOVS
gdas minus nephanalyses, gdas minus clavr	gdas minus TOVS, tovs minus Air Force	clavr minus Air Force, clavr minus tovs

TOTAL CLOUD SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean	zonal mean land	zonal mean ocean
0-6h	6-12h	12-18h	18-24h
6-12h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 0-6h	18-24h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 6-12h	18-24h minus 12-18h

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg
		dy10-fg,dy15-fg

BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg
zonal mean nephanalyses		dy10-fg,dy15-fg
zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean	nephanalyses and 0-6 hr fcst	0-6hr minus nephanalyses

BOUNDARY CLOUD SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean	zonal mean land	zonal mean ocean
bdry cloud 0-6h	bdry cloud 6-12h	bdry cloud 12-18h	bdry cloud 18-24h
bdry cloud 6-12h minus 0-6h	bdry cloud 12-18h minus 0-6h	bdry cloud 18-24h minus 0-6h	bdry cloud 12-18h minus 6-12h	bdry cloud 18-24h minus 12-18h

ZONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg	equator
zonal mean land, ocean	COADS climatology	dy5-fg
		dy10-fg, dy15-fg

MERIDIONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean
zonal mean land, ocean

MAGNITUDE SURFACE STRESS SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

	zonal mean	zonal mean land	zonal mean ocean
	0-6h	18-24h
6-12h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 0-6h	18-24h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 6-12h	18-24h minus 12-18h
	0-6h ocean	18-24h ocean
6-12h minus 0-6h ocean	12-18h minus 0-6h ocean	18-24h minus 0-6h ocean	12-18h minus 6-12h ocean	18-24h minus 12-18h ocean

ZONAL 10-M WIND

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg	equator
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg
		dy10-fg, dy15-fg

MERIDIONAL 10-M WIND

zonal mean
zonal mean land, ocean

10-M WIND SPEED

zonal mean	first guess, 1dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean	3 dy, 5 dy	dy5-fg
	10 dy, 15 dy	dy10-fg, dy15-fg

10-M WIND HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

zonal mean	first guess, 1dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean	3 dy, 5 dy	dy5-fg
	10 dy, 15 dy	dy10-fg, dy15-fg

OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
first guess, satellite olr from CPC		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
zonal mean from satellite and first guess	first guess minus satellite olr	dy15-fg
standard deviation of daily olr from satellite	standard deviation of daily olr from first guess	standard deviation of daily olr from 96-120 hr fcsts
correl of olr anomalies satellite-firstguess	correl of olr anomalies satellite-54-72h	correl of olr anomalies satellite-102-120h
zonal mean correl of olr anomalies	correl of olr anomalies first guess-54-72h	correl of olr anomalies first guess-102-120h

Longitude-time plots of TOA OLR

45N

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

30N

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

15N

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

Equator

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

15S

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

30S

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

45S

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

Longitude-time plots of TOA OLR anomalies (from time-mean of period)

45N

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

30N

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

15N

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

Equator

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

15S

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

30S

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

45S

satellite	0-6 hr	60-72 hr	96-120 hr

DOWNWARD SHORTWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

NET SHORTWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

TH COLSPAN=1

zonal mean 85-91 SRB

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-f06,dy3-f06
zonal mean over land, ocean	85-91 SRB	dy5-f06,dy10-f06
dy15-f06

DOWNWARD SHORT WAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h			18-24h
6-12h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 0-6h	18-24h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 6-12h	18-24h minus 12-18h

UPWARD SHORT WAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h			18-24h
6-12h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 0-6h	18-24h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 6-12h	18-24h minus 12-18h

NET SHORT WAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h			18-24h
6-12h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 0-6h	18-24h minus 0-6h	12-18h minus 6-12h	18-24h minus 12-18h

NET LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean over land, ocean		dy5-fg
		dy10-fg,dy15-fg

NET HEAT FLUX AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean over land, ocean		dy5-fg
		dy10-fg, dy15-fg