NCEP/ESRL PREDICTABILITY MEETINGS
For further information about these
meetings, please
contact: Tom.Hamill@noaa.gov
We will try to use the GoToMeeting Webinar capability for the 20 August
meeting, but will use the following
telephone conference line for voice:
(866) 727-3395 passcode 8757146.
Here is the URL for our GoToMeeting link: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/729404201
You will need to register with a name and e-mail in order to get
into
the webinar. If you are unable to connect to GoToMeeting, you can
use the presentation copy posted below to follow along with the telecon.
Next Meeting: August 20, 2009 3 pm EDT
Tentative topics:
- Evaluation of the impact of adaptive observations from the
Winter Storm
Reconnaissance (WSR) 2006 program (Y. Song)
- A new nature run for OSSE studies (M. Masutani)
- New results with a stochastic perturbation scheme for
ensemble
forecasting (D. Hou)
Past meetings
May 19 An
ensemble of ensembles (TIGGE): What's available now in CXML format and
what's coming via GIFS for tropical cyclone forecasting
(Beth Ebert, CAWCR)
Oct 28 Evaluating “Bayesian
Processor of Forecasts” using GFS surface temperature
reforecasts (Hamill)
Oct 28 How grads can handle ensemble
data encoded in GRIB2 (Adams & Doty)
Special Topic
Aug 5 WSR/TPARC 2009-2010 implementation plan
(Song)
SREF Plan for 2009-2010
(Du)
NAEFS
and GEFS plans (Zhu)
July 8
2008 SREF
implmentation: parallel test results (Du)
Jun 4
Recent
progress and plans for statistical processing of ensemble
precipitation forecasts (Charles)
May 27 Use of
atmospheric ensembles to force hydrologic forecast applications
(RFCs, OHD)
Mar 5 Development of a Continuous
Precipitation Variable for Bias Correction and Downscaling
(Charles)
A New Precip Dataset
for Bias Correction & Downscaling
Feb 26 Bias correction
of the SREF ensemble (Jun Du)
Dec 4 Analysis and Forecasts of a Historic
Rain and Flood Event (Grumm)
Nov 27 Intra-seasonal
variability in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
(Qin Zhang)
Sept 11 Initial
development and plans related to a high impact event
ensemble forecast system (Jun Du, Dusan Jovic)
Sept 4 Definition of
continuous variable related to precipitation
(Paul Schultz, ESRL/GSD) precip example
Jul 24 Current practice and plans for generating
initial perturbations
for the SREF (Wei)
Jul 17 Coupled ocean-atmosphere initial ensemble perturbations
for sub-seasonal time scales (Pena)
Jun 12 1) Proposed
format for numerical forecast uncertainty
estimates:
Ensembles - Forecasters - Users (Z. Toth)
2) Bias correct / combine information
from the SREF
ensemble with higher resolution NAM forecasts (Jun Du)
May 22 Plans for probabilistic guidance products
for high impact events and corresponding performance measures
(Toth)
May 15 Hindcasting Plans (Zhu)
Possible GENS Upgrades
(Toth)
Apr 10
Hydrologic ensemble/predictability (John Schaacke)
Mar 27 - NAEFS:
recent
verification results (Zhu)
Mar 13 - Downscaling
ensemble forecasts to the NDGD grid (Bo Cui)
Downscaling (Toth)
Mar 6 - Recommendations following the 3rd
Ensemble User Workshop (Zoltan Toth)
[doc /
ppt]
Feb 27 - Uncertainty estimation in air
quality and dispersion forecasting (Jeff Mcqueen and
Binbin Zhou)
Feb 6 - Statistical
post-processing with
linear regression and neural network methods (Huiling Yuan)
Jan 30 - Configuration
of ensemble forecasts in support of the 2007 SPC Spring Program
(Steve Weiss and David Bright)
Nov 14 - Re-forecasting
issues (Tom Hamill)
[PPT File] [PDF File]
Oct 18 -
Improvements to
the NAEFS bias-correction algorithm (Yulia Gel)
Sep
26 - Sensitivity
Tests of
Precipitation and T2m to Soil Moisture
(Du)
Representing Uncertainty Associated
with the
Land Surface Component (D Hou)
Sep 12 - preliminary
agenda for the upcoming ensemble user workshop
proposed web interface
Jun 6 - An ensemble-based
tool for the modification of
numerical
guidance products. (K Brill
and M
Schichtel)
Mar 28 - Ensemble based
estimates of forecast uncertainty and their downscaling to higher
resolution grids (NDGD) (Z.
Toth)
Mar 21 - Estimating the first
moment of the forecast pdf based on information from high resolution
control & lower resolution ensemble forecasts (J.
Du,
Z.
Toth)
Jan. 24
- Ensemble-based estimates
of information content in observational
data extractable by data assimilation methods (Zupanski
& Wei)
Jan 10 - Recent
results
related to the inclusion of WRF members into the SREF system
(Du & McQueen)
Dec 20 -
Stochastic model perturbations for
representing model related errors in ensemble forecasting
(D Hou)
Nov 22 - Report
on recent ECMWF "Operational
Systems" workshop (Y Zhu)
Oct 25 - Reducing
forecast errors induced by model drift
(Toth)
NEW!
Oct 11 - Development
&
calibration of ensemble
based hazardous weather products at the SPC (David Bright)
May 31 - Design of ensemble guidance
products for
NDGD (Toth)
Apr 5
- New
statistical post-processing results with the global ensemble
system (B. Cui)
Mar 22- The
use of the Gaussian Kernel Method for constructing
continuous probability density functions from ensemble forecasts
(Unger)
Mar 8 - Consistency
of Ensemble
Forecasts (Zhu), SREF
Probability Consistency Checking Tool (Zhou)
Feb 8 - Observing
System Simulation Experiments at NCEP (M. Masutani)
Jan 4 - Plans for
Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)
with the ocean part of the CFS forecast system (M. Pena)
Dec 14 - WRF ensemble developments (Geoff
Dimego) PDF
Nov 2
- Review of recent WMO Ensemble Workshop
held in
Exeter Hou (PDF)
,
Du (PDF) , Tracton
(PDF)
Oct 12 - The use of the Ensemble Transform (ET) technique to
generate
initial ensemble perturbations, and a plan for multi-center
collaboration (C. Bishop and M. Wei)
Sept 7 - Verification of ensemble and probabilistic forecasts
(Z.
Toth)
June 1 - Stochastic forcing in ensemble forecast integrations
(D.
Wou)
May 4 - Mesoscale (SREF) ensemble forecasting:
Initial value,
physics, or mixed perturbation approach (J. Du)
March 30 - Initial
ensemble perturbations:
ETKF experiments (M. Wei)
March 2 - Statistical
postprocessing
of ensemble forecasts (Z. Toth)
Febr. 10 - The Northeast Energy project (J. McQueen)
Jan 20, 2004 - Representing model related errors in ensemble
forecasting (Z.
Toth)
Dec. 16 - Different
measures of predictability
(Y. Zhu)
Oct. 22 - Parallel testing of new SREF configuration (J. Du)
Current
parallel setup for global ensemble (R. Wobus)
Sept 30 2003 - North
American Ensemble Forecast
System (Z. Toth)
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