Second

ENSEMBLE USER'S WORKSHOP

May 18-19, 2004, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

Workshop Recommendations     

NCEP Service Center ensemble product generation request list         UPDATED!

AGENDA & Links to Presentations

Participants

DISCUSSION THEMES

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AGENDA

Tuesday, May 18
 

8:00-8:30	Refreshments
8:30-8:45	Welcome remarks (Steve Lord, Director of EMC & Dave Caldwell, NCEP Director's Office)
8:45-8:50	Logistics (Z. Toth)
BASICS: Current Status & Plans
8:50-9:30	Zoltan Toth Global ensemble configuration & verification
9:30-10:10	Jeff McQueen Regional ensemble (SREF) configuration & verification
10:10-10:30	BREAK
10:30-11:00	B. Gordon, Y. Zhu, J. Du Ensemble data files (current & planned)
11:00-11:15	J. Alpert Ensemble data in NOMADS
11:15-12:05	Z. Toth, P. Dallavalle Statistical bias correction of ensembles: on a model grid & downscaling
12:05-12:15	J. Du Hybrid Ensembles
12:15-1:15	LUNCH brought in, make selection by morning breaktime
1:15-1:45	R. Wobus, Y. Zhu, B. Zhou Derived Products for Global Ensemble
	B. Zhou SREF Products
1:45-2:05	Dave Michaud End-to-end operational implementation process
JOINT PROJECTS
2:05-2:30	Zoltan Toth Global - North American Ensemble Forecast System
2:30-2:55	J. McQueen, N. Seaman Regional - Northeast Energy Project & WRF applications - current and future use of ensembles
2:55-3:15	BREAK
APPLICATIONS: Current & Future Use of Ensembles I
3:15-3:40	AWC: Fred Mosher / NWS Aviation Services Branch: Mike Graf
3:40-4:05	SPC: Dave Bright
4:05-4:30	TPC: Rick Knabb
4:30-4:45	OHD Hydrologic applications
4:45-5:00	Discussion: identify key issues for tomorrow
5:00	Adjourn for Dinner arrangements TBD

Wednesday, May 19

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PARTICIPANTS

Mark Antolik	OST
David Bright	SPC/SSB
Keith Brill	HPC
Dave Caldwell	NCEP
Paul Dallavalle	OST
Brian Gockel	NWS HQ
Brent Gordon	NCO
Michael Graf	OCWWS/ASB
Mike Halpert	CPC
Jon Hoopingarner	CPC
Kathy Hughes	OST
Paul Janish	Entergy-Koch Trading (Houston)
Rick Knabb	TPC
Andrew Loughe	FSL/AD
Peter Manousos	HPC
Daniel Melendez	NOAA/NWS
Dave Michaud	NCO
Jon Mittelstadt	WFO/Pendleton
Fred Mosher	AWC
Linnae Neyman	NWS/Alaska Region
Minh Nguy	Delinia Corp (Houston)
Ed O'Lenic	CPC
Dave Plummer	NCO
Pedro Restrepo	OHD
Glenn Rolph	NOAA/ARL
Steve Schotz	NCO
DJ Seo	OHD
Joseph Sienkiewicz	OPC
Paul Stokols	CPC
Barbara Stunder	NOAA/ARL
Steve Tracton	ONR
Dave Unger	CPC

    EMC PARTICIPANTS

Bill	Bua
Hsuan	Chen
Jun	Du
Ding-Chen	Hou
Steve	Lord
Geoff	Manikin
Jeff	McQueen
Malaquias	Pena
Zoltan	Toth
Mozheng	Wei
Dick	Wobus
BinBin	Zhou
Yuejian	Zhu

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1) Ensemble Configuration:

Resolution

Number of members: are many needed or can we statistically interpolate/extrapolate?

Multi-model approach

Stochastic model pertubations

Intial pertubations

Multi-center ensemble approach

2) Ensemble Data:   (current & future storage/bandwidth)

Low-resolution ensembles: is there a unique problem for ensembles?

Trade-offs between resolution (& only selected variables) and number of members

Who needs summary products; who needs output from all members?

Could NWP have succeeded with strictly limited data access (only a few fields)?

Balance between accepting constraints and striving for optimal future capability

* Add low resolution anomaly forecasts to high-res climate?

* Formats: Pgrib, Thinned Pgrib, Grib2, Different Map Projections, Gempak

* Users: NCEP Service Centers, AWIPS, ftp sites (public & commercial users)

3) Post Processing:

Bias types:

* Expected value (first moment)

* Spread (second moment)

* Temporal variations in spread

Method types:

* Regression

* Kalman filter

* Neural net

* Baysean

Sample size:

* Function of (bias) signal vs. (random initial error) noise ratio

** Adaptive, short training period for short lead times, longer, climate type sample for longer lead times?

Output:

* Model variables/grid

* Downscaled/new variables (NDFD and/or sites)

Where to apply: centrally or locally?

4) Products & Training:

Prepared products vs. Interactive access to ensemble data: who needs what?

* NCEP Service Centers, WFOs, Public Servers (ftp, web)?

Which prepared products most often used?

Interactive tool set:

* What’s needed? Use AWIPS recommendation as starting point

* Who develops it?

* On what platform (AWIPS, NAWIPS, web, other)?

* Can same set of applications be used on different platforms?

Data access vs. training:

* Will limits to data access also limit spread of new ensemble methods?

Formal training:

* COMET

* NCEP Service Centers

* EMC Predictability meeting: should it be a telecon?

* Public - media

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