Program Summary 	 	
Program: 		Program Manager: 		
Program Acronym:		Program Manager email:		
Goal Team:		Program Manager Phone:		
Line Office Components:		
Phase:	FY-10 Planning	
Program Description & Guidance	
Program Description 	PROBABILISTIC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH IMPACT EVENTS (THORPEX)

Goal: Provide highest quality, coordinated, and seamless probabilistic automated guidance products, including information on forecast uncertainty

Deliverable: Comprehensive suite of ensemble forecast systems (“forecast engine”) that facilitate the generation of automated forecast guidance as a basis for high impact event forecasting for NOAA operations regarding high impact events

Range of use: All high impact weather, water, and climate forecast applications

Time/spatial scales: All spatial and time scales, including 
a)	Now-casting (6-12 hrs, local scale modeling)
b)	Short range (up to 3 days, regional modeling)
c)	Medium- and extended range (up to 15 days, global modeling)
d)	Sub-seasonal (10-60 days, coupled global ocean / land surface / atmosphere modeling)
e)	Seasonal (2-12 months, coupled global OLA modeling)

New aspects of forecast process:
i)	Integrated from observations to user applications
ii)	Focused on high impact events
iii)	Probabilistic to capture forecast uncertainty
iv)	Seamless guidance from minutes to seasons
v)	Adaptive to provide best case dependent info
vi)	User controllable to cater to users’ needs

Activities (with funding sources):
1)	Design of observing system for high impact events
Development of observing instruments/platforms capable of filling gaps in current system (STI)
Optimal design of satellite & in-situ observing network (EMP)
Adaptive collection and processing of observations (EMP)
2)	Ensemble-based data assimilation techniques
Ensemble-based forecast error covariance (EMP)
Initial ensemble perturbations (EMP)
3)	Numerical modeling for high impact events
Ensemble techniques for high impact applications, e.g., air quality / dispersion, tropical cyclones, extra-tropical storms and other events, fire weather (EMP)
Model-related uncertainties in ensemble forecasting (EMP)
Variable-resolution modeling for high impact events (EMP)
4)	Socio-economic applications
Statistical bias correction of lead time dependent systematic errors (EMP)
Downscaling to fine resolution information (EMP)
Combination of all forecast information (EMP)
Product generation (EMP / STI)
User applications - Decision Support Systems (STI)
Note that until FY09, all funding is from STI. Funding increase is requested under EMP alternative.

Scope / participants:
1)	Applied research (External community - THORPEX AOs, OAR Labs)
2)	Transition to operations (NCEP/EMP)
3)	Operations (NCEP/NCO, NCDC)

Performance measures: 
1) Possible new probabilistic guidance products for high impact events
a) Hydrometeorology
•	Extreme hydro-meteorological events, incl. dry and wet spells (CONUS)
•	Quantitative extreme river flow forecasting (Outside the US)
b) Tropical / winter storm prediction
•	Extreme surface wind speed
•	Precipitation: type & extreme amounts (related to wet spells)
•	Storm surge & wave height
c) Severe weather
•	Fire weather index
•	Combined severe weather index
d) Aviation forecasting
•	Flight restriction
•	Icing, visibility, fog, clear air & convective turbulence
d) Health / public safety and economic impact
•	Hot and cold spells
•	Air quality

2) “Legacy” internal probabilistic scores to assess long-term progress
a) General circulation
•	Probabilistic 1000 & 500 hPa height forecasts
b) Tropical/extra-tropical storms 
•	Strike probability for track
•	Probability of intensity (central pressure or wind-based)

Coordination with other programs:
Various NOAA programs and activities listed below provide to and receive from the Probabilistic Numerical Guidance for High Impact Events (THORPEX) the following:
1)	NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution - NFUSE Steering Team Provides: Coordination within NWS and the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise a process for assessing, communicating, and using forecast uncertainty information; NFUSE Team receives: Comprehensive plans on automated generation of probabilistic guidance for high impact events, to be coordinated with “human factor” (LFW) and outreach (conveying and using uncertainty information) components of NFUSE process
2)	W&W – LFW Provides: Requirements and primary application area for probabilistic numerical guidance products; LFW Receives: High quality probabilistic numerical guidance for high impact weather forecast applications on all spatial/time scales. LFW considers distribution within NWS, manipulation (adding value), display, depository, verification of ensemble forecast data, and training of forecasters
3)	W&W – STI Observing Programs Provide: Development of adaptively configurable new observing instruments and platforms; STI Observing Programs Receive: NWP guidance on optimal configuration of observing network 
4)	W&W – STI Socioeconomic Applications Activities Provide: Advice on forecast products, development of decision support tools, outreach to external users; STI Receives: Probabilistic/ensemble numerical guidance for HMT and other demo projects  
5)	W&W - Hydrology Provides: Major area of quantitative high impact applications in water management / drought prediction; Hydrology Receives: Bias corrected and downscaled precipitation and other relevant probabilistic / ensemble forecasts to be used as forcing in hydrological modeling and drought forecast applications
6)	W&W – Air Quality (AQ) Provides: Important application in area affecting public health and safety; Air Quality Receives: High quality probabilistic / ensemble forecast information to be coupled with AQ modeling system for Homeland Security and other dispersion plume applications
7)	Climate Goal – Predictions and Projections Program Provides: Important application area for ensemble and probabilistic forecast concepts, coupling of atmospheric model with ocean and land surface components, and re-forecasting research (identified as a gap for THORPEX); Predictions and Projections Program receives: Ensemble and probabilistic methods suitable for sub-seasonal and seasonal operational forecasting, contributing to seamless weather-climate forecasting capabilities 
8)	Climate Goal - Climate Observations and Analysis (COA) Program Provides: Archive and distributed web services access to ensemble forecasts through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS); Climate Observations and Analysis Program Receives: Archive of seamless suite of weather – water – climate forecasts
9)	Commerce & Transportation Goal – Aviation Program Provides: Application area critical to transportation; Aviation Program Receives: Probabilistic / ensemble numerical guidance for aviation-related parameters
10)	 Commerce & Transportation Goal – Marine Program Provides: Application area critical to transportation; Marine Program Receives: Probabilistic / ensemble numerical guidance for marine transportation-related parameters
11)	Building Community Resilience in the Face of Coastal Hazards – Coastal Resilience Provides: Critical application area for probabilistic forecast activities; Coastal Resilience Receives: Early numerical warning for high impact events

External connections: The activities above constitute NOAA’s contributions to the World Meteorological Organization  (WMO) World Weather Research Program’s (WWRP) THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) program. NOAA’s program objectives cannot be achieved without the significant benefits of leveraging major related national and international efforts, representing a significant savings for NOAA and the US economy. 	
Guidance	EXTERNAL DRIVERS & PROGRAM RESPONSES
i)	National Research Council (NRC) Report: Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. Recommendation for NOAA/NWS to become leader in the development and use of probabilistic and ensemble forecast methods within weather/water/climate enterprise. – Response: Coordinate with and contribute to success of recently formed “NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty Services Evolution” (NFUSE) Steering Team.  
ii)	National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC): A tri-agency (NOAA, US Navy, US Air Force) effort at unified probabilistic global prediction capability, with multi-center ensemble forecasts at its core – Response: Coordinate EMP program planning with evolving NUOPC planning and execution process

NOAA AGM FY2010-14 PRIORITIES & PROGRAM RESPONSES
i)	“NOAA’s vision and mission are global and therefore require both domestic and international engagement… gaining through international cooperation… through projects such as the North American Ensemble Forecast System and THORPEX”  - Response: Strengthen engagement in (a) National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC, joint multi-center ensemble with US Navy and USAF); (b) North American Ensemble Forecast System (joint multi-center ensemble with Meteorological Service of Canada, and National Meteorological Service of Mexico, NMSM); (c) THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX, World Meteorological Organization sponsored research program aimed at accelerating improvements in quality and utility of probabilistic high impact weather forecasts)
ii)	“Foster better decision-making through improved quantification and communication of forecast uncertainty” – Response: Intensify development of THORPEX/NAEFS multi-center ensemble / probabilistic forecast approach, expand effort under NUOPC, generalize methods to cover all time scales and application areas
iii)	“Demand for a strategy for operational forecasts of high impact events” – Response: Develop general THORPEX approach for adaptive observational, data assimilation, numerical modeling / ensemble, and probabilistic forecast guidance approach to be used across all time scales of high impact event forecasting and monitoring
iv)	“Increased lead time of all extreme weather and water events” – Response: Use THORPEX research results to integrate observing system, data assimilation, numerical modeling / ensemble, and product generation components of ensemble forecast systems for all weather, water, and climate forecast applications
v)	“Increased accuracy for hurricane track and intensity forecasts” – Response: Adapt general/unified THORPEX ensemble/probabilistic approach introduced as part of NAEFS and to be further developed under NUOPC for tropical storm forecast applications both for US and other areas to increase preparedness, thus reducing disaster mitigation costs
vi)	“Developing ensemble modeling and probabilistic forecasts for Next Generation aviation weather information services” – Response: Adapt general/unified THORPEX approach introduced as part of NAEFS and to be further developed under NUOPC for aviation applications
vii)	“Close the observing system gaps for the most critical mission needs;… Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are powerful… ways of assessing the impact of potential new observations” – Response: (a) Identify critical observational gaps for high impact event forecasting; (b) Determine observing which observing platforms/instruments can fill the gaps in most cost effective manner; (c) Develop adaptive methods for the optimal collection and processing of observations for high impact event forecasting
viii)	“Improving capabilities to assimilate sensory data; Integrated data assimilation and management” – Response: Support the development and use of advanced data assimilation techniques developed under the integrated THORPEX forecast process: (a) Optimal use of case dependent forecast error covariance information; Accurate estimate of uncertainty in initial state of coupled ocean, atmosphere, land surface system
ix)	“Research and operational atmospheric, ocean and coastal modeling capabilities: - Response: (a) Expand application areas of ensemble forecasting to include, ocean wave, ocean spray, sea ice, storm surge, land surface, river flow, and other applications; (b) Develop adaptive resolution numerical models for high impact weather forecasting applications; (c) Incorporate all known model-related uncertainty in numerical ensemble forecast applications
x)	“Communication of probabilistic information and uncertainties” – Response: In partnership with the weather, water, and climate enterprise, develop methods, tools, and human expertise (training) for conveying and using numerical probabilistic guidance and forecast uncertainty information in real life decision support systems, including the ability to dynamically respond and adapt the forecast process to high impact event dependent user requirements
xi)	“NOAA must maintain state of the art computing facilities with sufficient capability for world-class models” – Response: Request major increase in computational resources to catch up with leading international modeling centers in global high impact ensemble forecasting capabilities
xii)	 “…expanded role for NOAA in the areas of Environmental Data and Information Systems” (EDIS) – Response: Create comprehensive ensemble forecast database spanning from minutes to seasons as part of a NOAA-wide EDIS	
Previous Year Accomplishments 
(e.g. FY06) 	First joint Canadian-US operational implementation of NAEFS forecast system	
Execution Year Plan Overview 
(e.g. FY07) 	Upgrade NOAA component of NAEFS system (membership increased to 20 per cycle; introduce new products)	
Budget Year Plan Overview
(e.g. FY08) 	Test inclusion of US Navy global ensemble in NAEFS system
Develop prototype ensemble-based data assimilation system
Develop improved bias correction and downscaling algorithms for ensemble forecasts, including test of hindcasts	
Programming Year Plan Overview 
(e.g. FY09) 	Comparative testing of prototype ensemble-based data assimilation method and operational variational DA system enhanced with ensemble-based case dependent error covariances
Implementation of improved (Bayesian) bias correction algorithms within NAEFS
Test of new adaptive observational, data assimilation, model-related uncertainty representation, ensemble applications, and probabilistic product generation algorithms in THORPEX Pacific-Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in NAEFS environment
Implement US Navy global ensemble into NAEFS (subject to improved performance)	
Planning Years Overview 
(e.g. FY10-FY14) 	1)	Based on NAEFS achievements, develop plans for, and establish first configuration of NUOPC, a national multi-center ensemble system for global forecast applications
2)	Identify cost effective platforms/instruments to close gaps in observing system for high impact events
3)	Maintain and further develop OSSE system for optimal design of global observing network
4)	Generalize adaptive observational methods for applications on global to local scales
5)	Develop unified, multi-scale approach to using case dependent forecast error covariance information in data assimilation, and link initial ensemble perturbations with DA algorithm on all scales and across all applications
6)	Develop methods to account for model-related uncertainty in all aspects of numerical modeling for a wide range of ensemble applications
7)	Improve existing, and develop additional high impact ensemble applications (air quality, dispersion, fire weather, summer and winter storms, severe weather)
8)	Develop variable resolution global numerical model and compare quality and computation cost of forecasts with those generated with traditional one-way coupled global and Limited Area Model (LAM) ensemble applications, with a focus on high impact events across all time scales and applications
9)	Implement missing elements of, and unify most components of ensemble forecast systems for high impact forecasting: Coupled ocean-land-atmosphere global model for seasonal, intra-seasonal, and daily weather and water forecasting, with capability for enhanced resolution coverage of high impact events (either using a variable resolution global model or LAM ensembles)
10)	Improved bias correction and downscaling algorithms for ensemble forecasting to be used on all time scales and shared among most applications, including the generation and use of re-analyses and hind-casts as necessary
11)	Establish long-term archive of and web-based access methods to operational real-time and hind-cast ensemble forecasts to facilitate optimal use of probabilistic information (Implementation of Recommendation 3.4 in NRC Report for NOMADS)
12)	Develop new probabilistic products conveying forecast uncertainty information to the users
13)	Partner with weather, water, and climate enterprise for developing decision support systems for optimal use of ensemble information in real life applications	
To Complete Overview 	Develop and implement new THORPEX forecast paradigm of integrated, adaptive, and user responsive forecast process where the observing, data assimilation, numerical modeling / ensemble, and user application procedures are adaptively configured based on case dependent user requirements to provide seamless probabilistic numerical guidance for high impact weather events from the climate scales down to the minutes