Time series, anomaly correlations** in the extratropics - Daily scores(many models): day 5; day 6
- Monthly average scores - historical time series, GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, CMC, FNOMC, and CDAS (frozen model).
- Duration of skill - days needed to reach AC of 0.8 and 0.6: GFS, EC,UKCMC,and FNMOC - monthly since 1996 with 13-month centered running means.
Time series of
rms height error for forecast days 5 and 6
in the extratropics - many models - updated daily.
Time series of
area-mean height error for forecast days 5 and 6
in the extratropics - many models - updated daily.
Decay curves
time-averaged 500-hPa height anomaly correlation vs forecast length for
various wave numbers, many models.
TROPICAL WINDS - rms and mean errors - 200 hPa and 850 hPa.
Rms vector wind error -
time series, forecast day 3, many models, updated daily.
Mean windspeed error -
time series, forecast day 3, many models, updated daily.
Growth curves
of time-averaged rms vector wind error vs forecast length for
many models - updated daily.
Growth curves
of time-averaged mean windspeed error vs forecast length for
many models
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** Each model verified against its own analysis.
The anomaly correlation score measures the ability of a numerical
forecast to represent general weather patterns of high pressure
ridges and low pressure troughs, and the locations and strengths of
fronts and major storms. It has a maximum value of 1.0 (a perfect
depiction of the location of major weather systems), while a score above
0.6 is still considered useful by forecasters. It is universally accepted
as a standard score by international weather modeling centers and the World
Meteorological Organization.