Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Georgia Institute of Technology
We use this knowledge to attempt forecasts of floods in Bangladesh which is the confluence region of the large Ganges and Brahmaputra river systems. Examples of forecasts for short (1-6 days), medium (20-25 days) and long term (1-6 months are shown. The first and last periods use ensemble forecasts whereas the medium range uses new statistical techniques. Considerable skill is found at all three time scales, Finally, we consider methods of communicating probabilistic forecasts to a user community through the generation of user metrics.