The NCEP Short Range EnsembleForecast (SREF) System : a status report

Steve Tracton and Jun Du



A regional model based Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system wasimplemented on a real-time basis in May 2001. The system consists of 10 members, five each generated with the Eta and Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with perturbations to initial conditions provided by regional breeding . The ensemblesystem runs twice daily from 09Z and 21Z through 63 hours and is available about the same time as the 12Z and 00Z operational Eta runs. The SREF system will be described further in this presentation with emphasis on relevance to operational applications and system performance.

Plans for upgrading the SREF system will be outlined.