Adding
Storm-Scale Forecasts over Nested Domains for High Impact Weather
Eli Dennis and Michael
Colbert
Penn State
Noon June 7 in Room 2155
Abstract:
Two severe weather cases (28 April 2014 and 6 May 2015) are simulated
using both the 1.33-km NAM fire-weather nest and the 4-km NAM. On 28
April 2014, convection initiates along and ahead of a cold front that
traverses across Mississippi causing over 450 severe weather reports
(153 of which were tornado reports). On 6 May 2015, convection
initiation (CI) occurs in the vicinity of a dryline across Oklahoma
resulting in nearly 200 severe weather reports (65 of which were
tornado reports). Comparisons are made between the simulations and
observations to explore the effects of model resolution on CI and storm
evolution. The analysis focuses on seemingly unphysical artifacts in
the simulated composite reflectivity field, the influence of cold pool
strength on the strength and evolution of convection, and the effects
of differences between observed and modeled soundings on storm mode and
evolution. This research is a part of the Next Generation Global
Prediction System (NGGPS) Project.