impact of prescribed SST on Hurricane Edouard (2014) forecast with HWRF
1:30 pm July 21 in Room 2155
Different sources of SST products are used to drive Hurricane Edouard
(2014) forecast using HWRF with 3 km resolution to investigate the
impact of SST on tropical cyclone prediction. Over 10 cycles of
forecasts, track and intensity prediction doesn’t show significant
differences among those SST products, which include GFS, NCODA and
RTOFS SST. However, in particular cycles, different SST products are
able to affect Edouard’s structure and intensity forecast.
In the second part of this talk, a fully coupled HWRF-HYCOM system is
used to examine the impact of 1D and 3D ocean models on hurricane
forecasts in both an idealized framework and a real case (Hurricane
Edouard 2014). The 1D HYCOM underestimates SST cooling due to the lack
of Ekman pumping and the related ocean upwelling, leading to stronger
storms prediction compared to the 3D ocean model.