Tropical Cyclone Development in the GFS and in Nature

David Raymond
New Mexico Tech


The way tropical cyclones develop in models is not necessarily how they develop in nature. However, the GFS model exhibits some skill in predicting the formation of tropical cyclones, so a fair question to ask is how such storms develop in this model. We discuss tropical cyclone development in the GFS model in the context of a recently published theory for this process. Comparisons are also made with limited observations from two projects, TEXMEX (Acapulco, Mexico, 1991) and IFEX (San Jose, Costa Rica, 2005). These results provide context for the TCS-08 program, which will study (among other things) tropical cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific this coming August and September.