Data assimilation, ensemble forecasting, and precipitation forecast verification

Chungu Lu


This talk will give an overview of some research and development work on short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP), and global precipitation forecast verification, conducted at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and Colorado State University’s Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.

This includes following topics:
     Time-phased, multi-model ensemble forecast;
     Recovery of flow-dependent mesoscale error covariance for data assimilation;
     Ensemble-based QPF and PQPF, and their calibration and verification;
     Scale-dependent precipitation forecast errors in the GFS;
     Short- and long-term memories in the GFS precipitation forecast errors.