Current development of
JMA’s operational ensemble prediction systems
Takuma Yoshida
UMD-JMA
20 Sept, Noon in 2155
Abstract:
My talk mainly focuses on introducing the current
development of NWP systems which are operated by Climate Prediction
Division of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).
One of them is One-month Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), an
atmospheric global EPS used for the extended-range (from the second to
the fourth week) forecast. We are working to introduce one unified
global EPS unifying One-month EPS and two other EPSs operated in
Numerical Prediction Division, JMA (Typhoon EPS and One-week EPS). The
new global EPS will include the following upgrades: updated model
resolution and physics, initial perturbations from Ensemble Kalman
Filter combined with Singular Vectors perturbation, and newly
introduced perturbation on sea surface temperature.
The other system is JMA/MRI-CPS2 (Japan Meteorlorogical
Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System
version 2), a coupled EPS used for three-month prediction, warm and
cold season prediction and ENSO outlook. The system was implemented
into operation in June 2015, replacing the previous system
(JMA/MRI-CPS1). Thanks to the increased resolution and model
improvements, the system showed overall improvements compared to
JMA/MRI-CPS1, both in hindcast verification and operational forecasts.