Recent progress with the integration of new verification methods into operations at the Met Office

Marion Mittermaier
UK Met Office
Noon August 12th in room 2155

Our modelling systems are continually evolving. New dynamical cores, higher horizontal resolution for global models as well as convection-permitting km-scale NWP are presenting unique challenges in the way we interpret and verify our forecasts. The way we verifying must keep pace with these changes.

In this talk I will be presenting some notable verification changes that are in the process of being implemented operationally or have been applied in the operational model upgrade process, which we call trialling.

At the km-scale we are introducing the High Resolution Assessment (HiRA) framework which enables us to assess the benefit of our 1.5 km deterministic forecasts with our 2.2 km 12-member MOGREPS-UK ensemble.

At the global scale we have been using the Method for Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) to evaluate the impact of changing the dynamical core of the Met Office Unified Model on the evolution of jet cores, mid-latitude lows and highs, and tropical lows.q

I will also touch on the work the Met Office has been doing as part of the WMO CBS global deterministic verification in considering the skill of surface parameters, which will also become a standard part of trialling from the autumn.