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Sz\  `&Times New RomanS7>(X71)1dxd<:zTop of For7r(X7  ?{%2A`Arial?  Sz\  `&Times New RomanS7>(X71)2dxd0KS.SampleKy<6X9`(Courier NewKSz\  `&Times New RomanS0.Strong 8dl6TypewriterKy<6X9`(Courier NewKSz\  `&Times New RomanS42Variable: 8HTML MarkupB      2 0CommentB  <6X9`(Courier New\  `&Times New Roman%2A`Arialhttp://dao.gsfc.nasa.gov/~ardizone/fvccm.  8"  ___________A/)ht` dEht` A X ______~XkXXX~fX~XkCorrespondingauthorsaddress:Michiko_Masutani_,  NOAA/_NWS_/NCEP/_EMC_,5200AuthRd.CampSprings,MD  20746.Email:michiko.masutani@noaa.gov.#~XkX~f#~X~Xk,@0AZArial (;3$2#  0  .3  0  (O;$0  2#  a  .3  0` (#(#(b$0  0` (#(#2#   .3  0 ` (#` (#(xir$0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#2#(  0  )3  0 (# (#($0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#2#(  a  )3  0h(#(#(F$0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#0h(#(#2#(   )3  0h(#h(#($0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#0h(#(#0h(#h(#2#  0  )3  0(#(#({$0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#0h(#(#0h(#h(#0(#(#2#  a  )3  0p(#(#(F$0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#0h(#(#0h(#h(#0(#(#0p(#(#2#     )3  0p(#p(# yIcgkosw{Large BulletLarge Bullet#6^AZ"Arial Narrow !  _ ;XkXXXP1.6      ;X;Xk @ ProgressesandfutureplansforOSSE/NPOESS   l#;XkX;x#  ;X;XkMichiko_Masutani_* 1 ,JohnC.Woollen 1 ,StephenJ.Lord 1 ,JohnC.Derber 1   G.DavidEmmitt 2 ,ThomasJ.Kleespies 3, JosephTerry 4 ,_Haibing_ԀSun 3  _ SidneyA.Wood 2 ,StevenGreco 2 ,RobertAtlas 4 ,MitchGoldberg 3  $ t Jim_Yoe_ 3 ,_Wayman_ԀBaker 1 ,ChristopherVelden 3, ,WalterWolf 3,   9 SteveBloom 4 ,_Genia_ԀBrin 4 ,ChristopherOHandley2 ; 2 #; 2S#   NOAA/_NWS_/NCEP/EMC 1 ,SimpsonWeatherAssociates 2  8   NOAA/NESDIS 3 ,NASA/_GSFC_/DAO 4   M    http://www.emc.noaa.gov/research/osse#;XkX;&#    ;X;Xk(,(#(#(  1.INTRODUCTION   2    ThefutureNational_POES_ԀSystem(NPOESS)is 6  scheduledtoflyduringthe2007-2010period.Forthe   next10years,aconsiderableamountofeffortmusttake :  placetodefine,developandbuildthesuiteofinstruments 4 whichwillcomprisetheNPOESS.Theforecastimpactof  currentinstrumentscanbeassessedbyObserving 8 SystemExperiments(_OSEs_),inwhichalreadyexisting 2 observationsaredeniedoraddedtoobservationsfroma  standarddatabase.However,theimpactoffuture 6 instrumentsmustbeassessedwithexperimentsusing 0 simulatedobservations.Theseexperimentsareknown  asObservingSystemSimulationExperiments(OSSEs). 4 (Atlas,1997,Atlas2002)VV)V .   Thisprojectisacollaborationamongthe  NationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction(NCEP), 2 NASA/DataAssimilationOffice(DAO),SimpsonWeather , Associates(_SWA_),andtheNationalEnvironmental  Satellite,DataandInformationService(_NESDIS_). 0  Throughthiscollaboration,thedataassimilationand *! modelingcommunitiescanbeinvolvedininstrument " designandcanprovideinformationabouttheexpected .~# impactofnewinstruments.Furthermore,throughthe ($ OSSEs,operationaldataassimilationsystemswillbe % readytohandlenewdataintimeforthelaunchofnew , |& satellites.Thisprocessinvolvespreparationforfuture  &' datavolumesinoperations,thedevelopmentofthedata !( baseanddataprocessing(includingformatting)anda *"z) qualitycontrolsystem.Allofthisdevelopmentwill "$* acceleratetheoperationaluseofdatafromthefuture ~#+ instruments(Lordetal.1997). ($x,   InthispaperprogressandfutureplansforOSSE $" - forNPOESSisdescribed.Theproceduretosimulatethe |% . observationaldataandcalibrationofOSSEsystemis &&v!/ summarized.Inparticular,theresultsfromDopplerWind & "0 _Lidar_Ԁ(DWL)impacttestaredescribed. z'"1 @    2.NATURERUN  ($3   w6}A1-j|i+g `@E+g+gw  FortheOSSE,alongintegrationofan ,*|%5 atmosphericgeneralcirculationmodel(GCM)isrequired *&&6  VV     (.x); toprovideaproxy"trueatmosphere"fortheexperiment. 2 ; Thisiscalledthe"naturerun"(NR).TheNRneedstobe , < sufficientlyrepresentativeoftheactualatmosphereand  = differentfromthemodelusedforthedataassimilation. 0 > Incalibration,theobservationaldataforexisting *? instrumentsissimulatedfromtheNR.Thenforecastand @ analysisskillforrealandsimulateddataarecompared. .~A   Forthisproject,thenaturerunwasprovidedby (B theEuropean_Centre_ԀforMediumRangeWeather C Forecasts(ECMWF).Thedescriptionandevaluationof ,|D thenaturerunisprovidedbyBeckeretal.(1996).Aone &E monthmodelrunwasmadeatresolutionT213and31 F levelsstartingfrom5February1993.Theversionofthe *zG modelusedforthenaturerunisthesameasforthe $H ECMWF_reanalysis_. ~I   Thenaturerunwasfoundtoberepresentativeof (xJ therealatmospherebutwithafewexceptions(_Masutani_ "K etal.1999,Wood2001,andAtlasandTerry2002).Low |L levelmarinestratocumulusrequiredsomeadjustment.In &vM addition,seasurfacetemperature(SST)isfixed  N throughouttheperiodforthenaturerun.However,a zO localizedwarmanomalyinthesouthernhemisphere(_SH_) $tP appearedinlateFebruaryintherealSST.This Q differenceinSSTcouldpotentiallycausesome xR inconsistentresultsinOSSEcalibrationandverification. " rS   AnalternativeNRisbeingprocessedwithFinite  T Є_Colume_ԀCommunityClimateMode(_FVCCM_)andthe v!U evaluationispostedbyAtlasandTerry(2002).4| $"O  5  6 O   7 $"NThe  "pV calibrationandinitialOSSEsforDWLarebeing "W conductedbyNASA/DAO(Atlas2002).Thenewnature t#X runstartsinSeptember1999andcoversthehurricane $nY season.OSSEusing_FVCCM_Ԁnaturerunwillbealso $ Z pursuedbyNCEPonceECMWFnaturerunisfully r% [ exploitedandfoundationofOSSEhasbeenestablished. &l!\  3.SIMULATIONOFOBSERVATIONS  p'"^   Detailsofprocedurestosimulateobservational x)$a dataaredescribedin_Masutani_Ԁetal.(2002a)andLordet "*r%b al.(2002)andtheirreferences.Theinitial_simulationof_ *&c conventionaldatadonebyNASA/DAOusesreal v+&d observationaldatadistributionsavailableinFebruary  ,p'e 1993,includingACARSandcloudmotionvectors(_CMV_, ,(f AtlasandTerry2002).TOVSlevel1Bradiancedata t-(g (T1B)issimulatedbyNOAA/_NESDIS_Ԁtheprocedureis .n)h describedin(_Masutani_Ԁ2001).Thestrategiestoinclude  correlatederrortoT1Bispresentedby_Kleespies_Ԁ(2001). Z DWLhasbeensimulatedby_SWA_Ԁanddetailsare T describedin_Masutani_(2002b)    _CMV_ԀisbasedontheNRwindfieldsandwith X _theirpresent_Ԁdensity,aswellastheAtmosphericInfrared R Sounder(AIRS),willbeincludedinthecalibration.AIRS  willbeusedasoneoftheadvancedsoundersinthe V  calibration.  P 3.1SimulationofAIRS_radiances_ T     TheAIRSsimulationpackagewasoriginally    developedbyEvan_Fishbein_ԀofJetPropulsionLaboratory Y   (_JPL_).Thesimulation(i.e.forwardcalculation)isbased S  onradiativetransfercodedevelopedby_Larrabee_Ԁ_Strow_   (_UMBC_).ThepackagewasmodifiedbyWalterWolfto W  generatethinnedradiancedatasetsinthe_BUFR_Ԁformat. Q  TheefforttoprovideAIRSdatato_NWP_Ԁcentersin   near-realtimeisbeingledbyMitchGoldberg(_NESDIS_). U  BecausetheAIRSinstrumentwasnotlauncheduntilMay O  2002,the_NESDIS_ԀAIRSnear-realtimesystemhasbeen   basedonsimulateddata.TheNCEP_AVN_Ԁsix-hour S forecastsareusedtospecifythestatevariablesneeded M fortheforwardcalculation.Thesimulationpackageruns  inrealtimeandproducts(thinned_radiances_Ԁand Q retrievals)areproducedinnear-realtime.Thissame K packageisbeingusedtogeneratedAIRS_radiances_Ԁfor  theOSSE(Goldbergetal.2001). O 3.2SimulationofCloudMotionVectors    ForcalibrationandinitialDWLOSSE_CMVs_Ԁare T simulatedatthelocationofobserveddatawhichare_ased_ N  onobservedcloudcoverandsatellitesdataas1993.For ! morerealisticevaluation,thepresentdensityof_CMVs_Ԁat R" theNRcloudlocationisbeingsimulatedby_SWA_Ԁand L# NASA/DAO(O_Handley_Ԁetal.2001, $ AtlasandTerry2002).Satelliteviewcloudfractionwith P% 5%to25%isassumedtobeapotentialtracer.Slow J& biasandimageregistrationerrorwillbeincluded.The ' errorstatisticswillbeobtainedfromtheNOAA/_NESDIS_ N( OfficeofResearchandApplicationsForecastProducts H) DevelopmentTeam(_NESDIS_,2002).40 O  5  60O0  7 D0  *  4.DATAASSIMILATIONSYSTEM  "-   ThedataassimilationsystematNCEPisbased $X/ onthe SpectralStatisticalInterpolation(SSI)ofParrish $ 0 andDerber(1992),whichisathreedimensional \% 1 _variational_Ԁanalysis(3Dvar.)scheme.T1Bisused &V!2 (_McNally_Ԁetal.,2000,DerberandWu1998)fordata &"3 assimilationandtheMarch1999versionofNCEPs Z'"4 operationalMediumRangeForecast(_MRF_)anddata (T#5 assimilationsystemareusedforthedataimpacttest. (#6 Lineofsight(LOS)windsfrominstrumentssuchasDWL X)$7 aredirectlyusedinthedataassimilation. *R%8   ThefollowingupgradesoftheNCEPoperational *%9 dataassimilationsystemareinprogress. V+&: ЀDevelopmentofsituationdependentbackgrounderror ,'< _covariances_Ԁforglobalandregionalsystems(Purserand T-(= Parrish,2000). -N)> Biascorrectionofbackgroundfield. > Improvedmoisturebackgrounderror_covariances_. Z? Developmentofcloudanalysissystem. T@ Moredetailedcalibrationwillbecompletedwiththe1999 XB operationalsystem.EvaluationofAIRSdataandfurther RC workwillbeconductedwiththe2002operationaldata D assimilationsystem. V E   5.CALIBRATIONFOROSSE   G   Calibrationexperimentshelptovalidatethe  XI OSSEsystem(_Masutani_Ԁetal.2002a).Similardata  J withdrawalimpactexperimentsarerunforrealand \ K simulatedobservations.Afullsuitetotesttheimpactof V L removingvariousconventionaldatasourceshasbeen  M conducted.Theseexperimentincludewithdrawalof Z N _rawinsonde_Ԁwinds,_rawinsonde_ԀtemperaturesandT1B T O data.IntheNH,realandsimulatedimpactsare  P consistent.Inthe_SH_,theimpactsshowsome X Q inconsistency.Thisproblemhasbeeninvestigated. R R   5.1TOVSdata ]T   ThelargerimpactofT1Binsimulationsis V expectedbecauseofthelackofmeasurementerrorinthe bW simulatedT1Bdata.Underestimationofthecloudeffect  \X inthesimulationisanotherpossiblereasonforthelarge Y impactinthesimulation.Thelargeanalysisimpactinthe `Z tropicsmayberelatedtothebiasbetweentheNCEP  Z[ modelandthenaturerun.Includingabiascorrectionin \ thedataassimilationisbeingconsidered(Purserand ^] Derber,2001). X^   5.2AnomalousSST. Va ̀  Itisnotedthatthereisalocalizedlargewarm ac anomalyinthesouthPacificattheendofFebruaryinthe  [d realSST(RSST).However,SSTintheNRisfixed e throughouttheOSSEperiodtothatofFebruary5(FEB5 _f SST).AssimilationwithFEB5SSTwithrealobserved  Yg dataandassimilationwithRSSTwithsimulateddataare  h performedtotesttheimpactofSSTvariability.The ]!i resultsshowedthatthelocalizedanomalyinRSST "Wj causedlargerimpactofT1Binrealdatain_SH_.The "k simulationexperimentwithconstantSSTcanproduce [#l impactofT1BdatawhentheSSTvariabilityissmall. $Um Theseexperimentsclearlydemonstratethatdataimpact $n dependsonthevariabilityofSST.InfactintheNH, Y% o withoutlargedifferenceinSSTfields,simulatedandreal &S!p T1Bshowsimilarimpact. &!q   Theresultsalsoshowedthesimilaritybetween W'"r realandsimulatedexperimentsinresponsestotwo (Q#s differentSSTs.Thereforesimulatedexperimentscould (#t demonstratedataimpactwithslowlyvaryingSST, U)$u althoughthedataimpactsarenotidentical. )O%v 5.3Surfacedata +M'y   Itisfoundthatsurfacedatainsimulated X-({ experimentshavemuchmoreimpactthanexperiments .R)| withrealdata.Oneofthereasonssuspectedwasthat  NRsurfaceheightismuchsmootherofNRcomparedto Z therealsurface.However, T   AnotherreasonistheattheNRdoesnotinclude  variouserrorsrelatedtosurfacetype.ConstantSSTused X forNRdescribedin5.2alsocontributestotoooptimistic R surfacedata.Inthe_SH_Ԁsimulatedoceansurfacedata  seemstoeasiertobeassimilate. V    Furthererrorforsurfacedataisbeingaddedand  P evaluatedtoachievecloserimpactbetweenrealand    simulatedexperiments. T      `      N  5.54Largescaleerror0    V V 0  0` VV0 ` V` V0 V V0hVVY  hVhV   Inordertotestsensitivitytoobservationalerror, S  thedifferencebetweenobservationandanalysis(oa)   fromtherealdataassimilationisusedastheerrorforthe W  simulateddata.Thiserrorwillgivealargescale Q  correlatederror.With(oa)error,therejectionstatistics   ofsimulatedexperimentsbecomeclosertothoseforreal U  data.Withrandomerrortoolittledataarerejectedby O  qualitycontrol.However,simplyadding(oa)error   reducedtheskilltoomuch.Designsforcorrelated S observederrorforT1Bdataandforimproving M observationalerrorforconventionaldataarebeing  investigated(Kleespies2001). Q  6.DOPPLERWINDLIDAR(DWL)IMPACTTESTS  O   DWLhasbeenoneofthemaininstrumentstobe  testedbyOSSE.TheresultsfromOSSEusingT106 W ECMWFmodelissummarizedinBakeretal(1995).A Q  setofexperimentsinthisOSSE_to_Ԁdeterminetherelative ! impactofseveralgenericwindlidardataconfigurations U" havebeencompleted(Lordetal.2002,Masutani2002b). O# ЀThebracketingOSSE(Emmitt1998)isperformedand $ theimpactofclusteredversusdistributeddataproducts S% areexamined.Theresultsforfulltroposphericscanning M& andnonscanninginstrumentsandhaveanalyzed.The ' formercanbeconsideredanoptimalDWLinstrumentand Q( thelatteraminimalinstrument.EachDWLconfiguration K) providespositiveimpacttowindforecastsbutimpactsare  * consistentlylargerandmoresignificantwiththeoptimal O!+ instrument. !I,   DWLneedstobetestedwithAIRSand high "- densityCMVs.Varioussamplinganddataprocessing M#. strategieswilllbetested.Adaptiveobservingstrategies #G/ areinvestigatedformoreefficientuseofDWL.The $0 systematicerrorneedstobeadded(Emmitt2001). K% 1   7.OTHERINSTRUMENTSTOBETESTEDBYOSSE &!3    AIRSandCMVdataarebeingsimulatedby 'M#5 NESDIS,andOSEsandOSSEswillbeperformed.DWL (#6 needstobeevaluatedwiththesenewhigherdensitydata. Q)$7 Otherinstrumentsconsideredforsimulationare: O+&: 9z;AdvancedScatterometer ,'< CrosstrackInfraredSounder(CrIS) W-(= GeostationaryImagingFourierTransformSpectrometer(GIFTS)  .[)> ConicallyscanningMicrowaveImager/Sounder(CMIS) > AdvancedTechnologyMicrowaveSounder(ATMS)#;9zT# d? ThedecisiondependsontheresultsfromOSSEswith A AIRSand_CMV_Ԁdataandresourceavailable. lB  8.IDEALIZEDOSSEEXPERIMENTS  D   ItisimportanttoevaluatehowtheOSSEsystem  nF respondstothe perfectobservationsysteminwhichthe  G entireworldiscoveredwithgoodqualitydata.Thisideal r H situationhelpsustoexaminetheamountofimprovement  lI availabletoourglobalobservingsystemandwhich  J instrumentscanprovidethemosteffectiveimpact.After p K techniquesforproducingsimulateddatahavebeen j L developedandvalidated,producinganysimulated  M observationsisrelativelystraightforward.Withidealized n N systemnewtechniquesforsuperobbingwillbedeveloped h O (Purseretal.2001)tohandlethelargevolumeoffuture  P datamoreeffectively. l Q  ACKNOWLEDGMENT  S   WereceivedmuchassistancefromtheData nU ServicesSectionandDr.AnthonyHollingsworthof V ECMWFinsupplyingthenaturerun.Throughoutthis rW projectNOAA/NWS/NCEP,NASA/DAOand lX NOAA/NESDISstaffsprovidedmuchtechnical Y assistanceandadvice.Especially,wewouldliketothank pZ W.Yang,R.Treadon,W.S.Wu,M.Iredell,D.Keyser, j[ W.Collins,Y.Zhu,andR.KistlerofNCEP,N.Wolfsonof \ DAO,andV.Kapoor,andP.LiofNESDIS.Wewould n] liketothankEvanFishbeinofJPLforprovidingsimulation h^ codeforAIRSdata.Drs.E.Kalnay,andR.Daley _ providedexpertadvice.Weappreciatetheconstructive l` commentsfrommembersoftheOSSEReviewPanel. fa ThisprojectissponsoredbytheIntegratedProgram b Office(IPO)forNPOESSandbytheNOAAOfficeof jc AtmosphericResearch(OAR)andtheNOAANational dd EnvironmentalSatellite,DataandInformationService e (NESDIS).WethankDrs.StephenMango,Alexander hf MacDonald,JohnGaynor,andJimEllicksonandJohn  bg Pereirafortheirsupportandassistanceinthisproject.  h  REFERENCES  "`j 0   Atlas,R.1997:Atmosphericobservationandexperiments n#l toassesstheirusefulnessindataassimilation. $hm J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 75 ,111130. : $ n(#(# 0   Atlas,R.2002:ObservingSystemForecastExperiments v% o attheDAO.AMSPreprintvolumefortheSixth  &p!p SymposiumonIntegratedObservingSystems. &!"q 1317January2002,Orlando,_Floprida_.3739.'"r(#(# 0   Atlas,RandJ.Terry2002:ObservingSystemSimulation 3(#s ExperimentsatNASA. (-$t http://dao.gsfc.nasa.gov/DAO_people/terry)$u(#(# 0   ;Baker,_W.E._,G.D._Emmitt_,F.Robertson,_R.M._ԀAtlas,_J.E._ 1*%v Molinari,D.A._Bowdle_,J._Paegle_,_R.M._Ԁ_Hardesty_, *8&w _R.T._Ԁ_Menzies_,_T.N._Ԁ_Krishnamurti_,R.A.Brown, +&x _M.J._ԀPost,_J.R._ԀAnderson,A.C._Lorenc_ԀandJ. V,'y _McElroy_,1995:_Lidar_-measuredwindsfrom  -](z space:Anessentialcomponentforweatherand -){(#(# climateprediction.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,76,  869-888.#;9c#gVV 0   Becker,B.D.,H.Roquet,andA._Stofflen_Ԁ1996:A n simulatedfutureatmosphericobservation  databaseincluding_ATOVS_,_ASCAT_,andDWL. r BAMS, 10 ,22792294.lVV 0   Derber,J.C.andW.-S.Wu,1998:TheuseofTOVS   cloud-cleared_radiances_ԀintheNCEPSSI z  analysissystem.Mon._Wea_.Rev., 126, 2287- $ t 2299.; ( VV 0   _Emmitt_,G.D.,1999:ExpandedRationaleforthe    IPO/NOAABracketingOSSEs 9   http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/  @  swa/#;Mj#-;DWLexp.htm#;-k#  VV 0   _Emmitt_,G.D.,2000a:Systematicerrorsinsimulated ^  Dopplerwind_lidar_Ԁobservations. X  44dO  5  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/resarch/osse/s   wa/sys_errors.htm6lOlwice  7is !m\ VV 0   Goldberg,M.D.,L._McMillin_,W.Wolf,L._Zhou_,Y.Qu, V  andM._Divakarla_,2001:Operationalradiance   productsfromAIRS,AMS11thConferenceon Z  SatelliteMeteorologyandOceanography15-18  [ October2001,Madison,Wisconsin.555558. VV 0   _Kleespies_,T.J.andD.Crosby2001:Correlatednoise m modelingforsatelliteradiancesimulation.AMS g preprintvolumeforthe11thConferenceon  SatelliteMeteorologyandOceanography, y October2001,MadisonWisconsin.604605.*zVV 0   Lord,S.J.,E._Kalnay_,R.Daley,G.D._Emmitt_,andR. + Atlas1997:UsingOSSEs_i.n_Ԁthedesignofthe  futuregenerationofintegratedobserving / systems.Preprintvolume,1stSymposiumon ) IntegratedObservationSystems,LongBeach,   CA,27February1997.-}!VV 0   Lord,S.J.,M._Masutani_,J.S.Woollen,J.C.Derber,G. '" D._Emmitt_,S.A.Wood,S.Greco,R.Atlas,J. # Terry,T.J._Kleespies_,2002:Impact_assesment_ +{$ ofa_doppler_Ԁwind_lidar_Ԁfor_NPESS_/OSSE.AMS %% PreprintvolumefortheSixthSymposiumon & IntegratedObservingSystems.1317January 7' 2002,Orlando,_Floprida_.108115. h 8(VV 0   _Masutani_,M.K.Campana,S.Lord,andS.K.Yang1999:  ) NoteonCloudCoveroftheECMWFnaturerun C!* usedforOSSE/NPOESSproject.NCEPOffice !=+ NoteNo.427",VV 0   _Masutani_,M.,J.S.Woollen,J.Terry,S.J.Lord,T.J. O#- _Kleespies_,G.D._Emmitt_,S.A.Wood,S.Greco, #I. J.C.Derber,R.Atlas,M.Goldberg $/ 2001:CalibrationandInitialResultsfromthe M% 0 OSSEsforNPOESS,AMSpreprintvolumefor %G!1 the11thConferenceonSatelliteMeteorologyand &!2 Oceanography,October2001,Madison Y'"3 Wisconsin.696699. (Z#4VV 0   _Masutani_ԀM.,J.C.Woollen,S.J.Lord,J.Terry,J.C. 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