%-12345X@PJL SET PAGEPROTECT=OFF @PJL SET RESOLUTION=300 @PJL ENTER LANGUAGE=PCL E*t300R&u600D*r0F&l0O&l0S&l1H&l2a8c1E*p0x0Y*c0t5760x7704Y&l1X*o0Q&l0M*b0M *p602Y*p450X(19U(s16602t3b0s12v1PP1.13*p858Y*p822X(19U(s16602t3b0s14v1PCalibration and Error Sensitivity Tests for NPOESS/OSSE*p1222Y*p1100X(19U(s16602t0b0s12v1P Michiko Masutani,* John C. Woollen,* Stephen J. Lord,*p1182Y(19U(s16602t0b0s7.25v1P**p1222Y(19U(s16602t0b0s12v1P *p1342Y*p816XJoseph Terry+, Thomas J. Kleespies*p1302Y(19U(s16602t0b0s7.25v1P,#,*p1342Y(19U(s16602t0b0s12v1P John C. Derber*, Robert Atlas+ *p1582Y*p668X*NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, +NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD*p1702Y*p1580X#NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD*p1942Y*p1506Xhttp://www.emc.noaa.gov/research/osse*p2166Y*p450X(19U(s16602t3b0s10v1P1. INTRODUCTION*p2366Y*p750X(19U(s16602t0b0s10v1PThe *p+74Xfuture*p+2X *p+76XN*p+2Xational *p+74XPOES *p+74XSystem*p2466Y*p450X(NPOESS) *p-4Xis *p-4Xscheduled *p-4Xto *p-6Xfly *p-6Xduring *p-6Xthe *p-4X2007-2010*p2566Y*p450Xperiod. *p+24X *p+24XFor *p+24Xthe *p+24Xnext *p+24X10 *p+24Xyears, *p+24Xa *p+24Xconsiderable*p2666Y*p450Xamount *p-2Xof effort must take place to *p-2Xdefine, *p-2Xdevelop*p2766Y*p450Xand *p+38Xbuild *p+38Xthe *p+38Xsuite*p+2X *p+40Xo*p+2Xf*p+2X *p+38Xinstruments *p+38Xwhich *p+38Xwill*p2866Y*p450Xcomprise *p+16Xthe *p+16XNPOESS*p+2X.*p+2X *p+18X *p+18XThe *p+16Xforecast *p+16Ximpact *p+16Xof*p2966Y*p450Xcurrent *p-2Xinstruments *p-2Xcan be assessed *p-2Xby *p-2XObserving*p3066Y*p450XSystem *p+32XExperiments *p+32X(OSEs), *p+32Xin *p+34Xwhich *p+32Xalready*p3166Y*p450Xexisting *p+38Xobservations *p+38Xare *p+38Xdenied *p+38Xor *p+38Xa*p+2Xd*p+2Xd*p+2Xed *p+38Xto*p3266Y*p450Xobservations *p-4Xfrom *p-2Xa *p-2Xstandard *p-2Xdata *p-4Xbase. *p-4X *p-4XHowever,*p3366Y*p450Xthe impact of future instruments must *p+2Xbe assessed*p3466Y*p450Xwith *p+20Xexperi*p+2Xments *p+20Xusing *p+20Xsimulated *p+20X *p+20Xobservations.*p3566Y*p450XThese *p-10Xexperime*p-2Xn*p-2Xts *p-10Xare *p-10Xknown *p-10Xas *p-10XObserving *p-10XSystem*p3666Y*p450XSimulation *p-8XExperiments *p-10X *p-10X(OSSEs) *p-10X(Lord *p-10Xet *p-10Xal., *p-8X1997)*p3766Y*p750XIn *p+26Xorder *p+26Xfor *p+26XOSSEs *p+26Xto *p+26Xpro*p+2Xv*p+2Xide *p+26Xcredible*p3866Y*p450Xinsight *p+10Xabout *p+10Xthe *p+10Ximpact *p+10Xof *p+10Xn*p+2Xe*p+2Xw*p+2X *p+12Xi*p+2Xn*p+2Xstruments, *p+10Xit *p+10Xis*p3966Y*p450Xnecessa*p+2Xry *p+34Xto *p+34Xcalibrate *p+34Xthe *p+34XOSSE *p+34Xsystem *p+34Xby*p4066Y*p450Xestablishing *p+2Xthat *p+2Xthe *p+2Ximpacts *p+2Xof *p+4Xr*p+2Xe*p+2Xa*p+2Xl *p+2Xand *p+2Xsimulated*p4166Y*p450Xobservations *p+16Xfor *p+16Xexisting *p+16Xins*p+2Xt*p+2Xr*p+2Xuments *p+16Xare *p+16Xsimilar.*p4266Y*p450XData *p-2Xdenial *p-2Xtests *p-2Xare *p-4Xconducted *p-2Xfor *p-2Xthis *p-2Xpurpose. *p-2X *p-2XIt*p4366Y*p450Xis *p-6Xfound *p-6Xthat *p-6Xthe *p-6Xdata *p-6Ximpacts *p-4Xare *p-4Xsensitive *p-4Xto *p-6Xerrors*p4466Y*p450Xassigned *p-10Xto *p-10Xthe *p-10Xsimulated *p-10Xobs*p-2Xe*p-2Xr*p-2Xv*p-2Xa*p-2Xt*p-2Xi*p-2Xon. *p-10X *p-10XMethodology*p4566Y*p450Xto *p+28Xadd *p+28Xrealistic *p+28Xerror *p+28Xis *p+28Xbeing *p+28Xinvestigated *p+28Xand*p4666Y*p450Xtested.*p2166Y*p2474X(19U(s16602t3b0s10v1P2. NATURE RUN*p2366Y*p2774X(19U(s16602t0b0s10v1PFor *p+16Xth*p+2Xe*p+2X *p+16XOSSE, *p+16X *p+16Xa *p+16Xlong *p+16Xintegration *p+16Xof *p+16Xan*p2466Y*p2474Xatmospheric *p+22Xgen*p+2Xe*p+2Xral *p+22Xcirculation *p+22Xmodel *p+22X(GCM) *p+22Xis*p2566Y*p2474Xrequired *p+24Xt*p+2Xo *p+22Xprovide *p+22Xa *p+22X"true *p+22Xatmosphere" *p+22Xfor *p+22Xthe*p2666Y*p2474Xexperiment. This is called the "nature run" (NR).*p2766Y*p2774XThe *p+24Xnature *p+26Xr*p+2Xu*p+2Xn*p+2X *p+26Xneeds *p+24Xto *p+24Xbe *p+24Xsufficiently*p2866Y*p2474Xrepresentative *p+48Xof *p+48Xthe *p+48Xactual *p+48Xatmosphere*p+2X *p+48Xand*p2966Y*p2474Xdifferent *p+48Xfrom *p+48Xthe *p+48Xmodel *p+48Xus*p+2Xe*p+2Xd *p+48Xfor *p+48Xthe *p+48Xdata*p3066Y*p2474Xassimilation. *p+2X *p+2X In calibration, the observational *p+2Xdata*p3166Y*p2474Xfor *p+6Xexisting *p+6Xinstruments *p+6Xis *p+6Xsimulated *p+6Xfro*p+2Xm*p+2X *p+8Xt*p+2Xh*p+2Xe *p+6XNR.*p3266Y*p2474XThen *p+38Xforecast *p+38Xand *p+38Xana*p+2Xl*p+2Xysis *p+38Xskill *p+38Xfor *p+38Xreal *p+38Xand*p3366Y*p2474Xsimulated data are compared. *p3466Y*p2774XFor *p-8Xthis *p-8Xproject, *p-8Xthe *p-10Xnature *p-10Xrun *p-8Xwas *p-8Xprovided*p3566Y*p2474Xby *p-10Xthe *p-10XEuropean *p-10XCentre *p-10Xfor *p-10XMedium-Range*p-2X *p-10XW*p-2Xeather*p3666Y*p2474XForeca*p-2Xs*p-2Xt*p-2Xs*p-2X *p-10X(*p-2XE*p-2XC*p-2XM*p-2XW*p-2XF*p-2X)*p-2X. *p-10XThe *p-10Xdescription *p-10Xand *p-10Xevaluation*p3766Y*p2474Xof *p-6Xthe *p-6Xnature *p-6Xrun *p-6Xis *p-6Xprovided *p-6Xby *p-6XBecker *p-4Xet *p-4Xal. *p-4X(1996).*p3866Y*p2474XA *p+14Xone *p+14Xmonth *p+14Xmodel *p+14Xrun *p+14Xwas *p+14Xmade *p+14Xat *p+14Xr*p+2Xe*p+2Xs*p+2Xo*p+2Xl*p+2Xu*p+2Xt*p+2Xion*p3966Y*p2474XT213 *p+2Xand *p+4X3*p+2X1*p+2X *p+2Xlevels *p+2Xstarting *p+2Xfrom *p+2X5 *p+2XFebruary *p+2X1993.*p4066Y*p2474XThe *p+2Xversion of the model used for the nature run is*p4166Y*p2474Xthe same as for the ECMWF reanalysis.*p4266Y*p2774XThe *p+68Xnature *p+70Xr*p+2Xu*p+2Xn *p+68Xwas *p+68Xfound *p+68Xto *p+68Xbe*p4366Y*p2474Xrepresentative *p-6Xof *p-6Xthe *p-6Xreal *p-6Xatmosphere *p-6Xbut *p-6Xwith *p-6Xa *p-6Xfew*p4466Y*p2474Xexceptions *p+12X *p+12X(Masutani *p+12Xet *p+12Xal. *p+12X1999a,1999*p+2Xb*p+2X). *p+12X *p+12X *p+12XFor*p4566Y*p2474Xexample, *p+8Xlow *p+8Xlevel *p+8Xmarine *p+8Xstratocumulus *p+8Xr*p+2Xe*p+2Xq*p+2Xuired*p4666Y*p2474Xsome *p+50Xadjustment. *p+50X *p+50XIn *p+50Xaddition, *p+50Xsea *p+50Xsu*p+2Xr*p+2Xface*p4766Y*p2474Xtemperature *p-6X(SST) *p-4Xis *p-6Xfixed *p-6Xthroughout *p-6Xthe *p-6Xperiod *p-6Xfor*p4866Y*p2474Xthe *p-6Xnature *p-6Xrun. *p-6X *p-6XHowever, *p-6Xa *p-6Xlocalized *p-8Xwarm *p-6Xanomaly*p4966Y*p2474Xin *p+22Xsouthern *p+22Xhemi*p+2Xs*p+2Xp*p+2Xh*p+2Xe*p+2Xr*p+2Xe *p+22X(SH) *p+22X *p+22Xappeared *p+22Xin *p+22Xlate*p5066Y*p2474XFebruary, *p-8X *p-6Xin *p-6Xreal *p-6XSST. *p-6X *p-6XThis *p-6Xdifference *p-6Xin *p-6XSST *p-6Xcould*p5166Y*p2474Xpotentially *p-8Xcause *p-8Xsome *p-8Xinconsistent *p-8Xresults *p-10Xin *p-10XOSSE*p5266Y*p2474Xcalibration and verification.*p164Y*p2672X*v7S*r1A*b2M*b54W  @p*b54W 0 p*b56W p?p ?*b48W p<`  <*b48W pp`x x<*b48W ppp 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8~8*b53W?x~8*b48W~p~*b48W8p*b48W8ppw*b48W8ppw*b107Wipxq~8|>pǁq?~x>xw=?8*b107Wi?w9??q?χs8s9???8*b107We?=;qߏ8?s9?8*b107We|p;<<?pp>><8<<s9>>8*b107We>||<>?px8|p8xqq8*b107We<x<8<ppp<88pqqp8*b106W<px<8< <<8<$pqqp8*b107Wxpp8 888?$p>>p8*b107Wx<pp8&?8x$pp8*b107WAp8p8pp8p$p??p8*b107WAp8p8pp8ppqp8*b107W Àp.88pp>8p*|pqp8*b107W À 8p<pp*pqp8*b107Wi<88p8<8<ppppp;p8*b107Wi888<xx88ppppp;p8*b107Wi<x<x88x>xxp;>>p8*b107Wi>qp? | 8*b90W3<<>qp? |`8*b90W3>>p? |8*b90W3??wp8 >>8*b90W3xx?wxp<8< <8x*b90W3<=8;w8<p88p p88<8*b90W38p8;8p<88p< p88x<*b100W3p8p898p888p8p8|>8 pq8*b98W18pp88x88p8x8p88p ps;*b98W1<pp88p8pǀppp8pp8p w;*b98W1xx<p8ppÀppp8pp8p ~?*b99W/8pp88pppp8ppp8p> x>*b99W/8p88pp?ppp>8px xp<*b98W18pp?ppp8<8pxpp<*b98W8p?88ppx8p8pp8*b97W8p888pp8p8pp8*b97W1Ã8ǀ<8pp888pp8p8 pp8*b97W18q8*b100W3?8~~?88p pp?*b100Wb8>|8?ppp?*b100Wb<8|p?p~pp;*b100WT8~8|p?p>>8 ppp8*b8W8*b8W8*b8W8*b8W8*b8W8*b8W8*b4W8*b4W8*p5190Y*b45W?? p~*b45W?*b45W?*b37W|8>*b37W<8<*b37Wp8p*b37Wp8ppp*b58W9|pp8p p ?*b58W;pp8 8p ?*b59W??p8 88<xp8 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*p-2Xconventional *p-2Xdata, *p-2X*p3728Y*p3146XACAR, SATwind, *p3868Y*p3294XSurface data*p4068Y*p664X(19U(s16901t3b0s12v1P1B(Control)*p4082Y*p1584X(19U(s16901t3b0s14v1PY*p2058XY*p2558XY*p3552XY *p4282Y*p718X(19U(s16901t3b0s12v1P1BNTMP*p4296Y*p1584X(19U(s16901t3b0s14v1PY*p2058XN*p2558XY*p3552XY *p4496Y*p724X(19U(s16901t3b0s12v1P1BNWIN*p4510Y*p1584X(19U(s16901t3b0s14v1PY*p2058XY*p2558XN*p3552XY *p4710Y*p576X(19U(s16901t3b0s12v1P1BNTMPNWIN*p4724Y*p1584X(19U(s16901t3b0s14v1PY*p2058XN*p2558XN*p3566XY*p4924Y*p818X(19U(s16901t3b0s12v1PNTV*p4938Y*p1584X(19U(s16901t3b0s14v1PN*p2058XY*p2558XY*p3566XY*p5138Y*p670X(19U(s16901t3b0s12v1PNTVNTMP*p5152Y*p1584X(19U(s16901t3b0s14v1PN*p2058XN*p2558XY*p3566XY*p5352Y*p676X(19U(s16901t3b0s12v1PNTVNWIN*p5366Y*p1584X(19U(s16901t3b0s14v1PN*p2058XY*p2558XN*p3566XY*p5566Y*p530X(19U(s16901t3b0s12v1PNTVNTMPNWIN*p5580Y*p1584X(19U(s16901t3b0s14v1PN*p2058XN*p2558XN*p3566XY*p5736Y*p1350X(19U(s16602t3b0s12v1PTable 1 List of Calibration 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*p-8Xin *p-8XLord*p1786Y*p450Xet al (2001a).*p1886Y*p750X *p+4XCMV *p+4Xbased *p+4Xon *p+4Xthe *p+4XNR *p+4Xwind *p+4Xfie*p+2Xl*p+2Xd*p+2Xs*p+2X *p+4Xand*p1986Y*p450Xwith *p-8Xpresent *p-8Xdensity *p-10Xas *p-8Xwell *p-8Xas *p-8X *p-8Xthe *p-8XAtmospheric*p2086Y*p450XInfrared *p+10XSounder *p+10X(AIRS) *p+10X(Goldberg *p+10Xet *p+10Xal *p+10X2001)*p2186Y*p450Xneed *p-2Xto be included in the calibration *p-2Xin *p-2Xfuture.*p2286Y*p450XAIRS *p+40Xis*p+2X *p+42Xs*p+2Xc*p+2Xh*p+2Xe*p+2Xduled *p+40Xto *p+40Xbe *p+40Xincluded *p+40Xin *p+40Xthe*p2386Y*p450XNPOESS *p+2XPreparatory *p+2XProject *p+2X(NPP) *p+2Xi*p+2Xn*p+2Xs*p+2Xtrument*p2486Y*p450Xsuite. *p+8X *p+8XIt *p+8Xwill *p+8Xbe *p+8Xused *p+8Xa*p+2Xs*p+2X *p+10Xo*p+2Xn*p+2Xe*p+2X *p+10Xo*p+2Xf *p+8Xthe *p+8Xadvanced*p2586Y*p450Xsounders *p-6Xin *p-6Xcalibration. *p-6X *p-6X *p-6XAIRS *p-6Xwill *p-8Xbe *p-6Xsimulated*p2686Y*p450Xby *p+36XNOAA/NESDIS *p+36Xand *p+36XNCEP. *p+36XCMV *p+36Xwill*p+2X *p+38Xb*p+2Xe*p2786Y*p450Xsimulated *p-4Xby *p-4XNASA/DAO *p-2Xand *p-4XSimpson *p-4XWeather*p2886Y*p450XAssociates *p-2X(SWA). *p-2XAn outline of the simulation*p2986Y*p450Xof *p-6XAIRS *p-6Xand *p-6XCMV *p-6Xdata *p-4Xis *p-4Xgiven *p-4Xin *p-4XMasutani *p-6Xet *p-6Xal.*p3086Y*p450X(2001).*p3286Y*p450X4. DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM*p3486Y*p750XThe *p-8Xdata *p-8Xassimilation *p-6Xsystem *p-6Xat *p-6XNCEP *p-6Xis*p3586Y*p450Xbased *p-8Xon *p-8Xthe *p-8XSpectral *p-8XStatistical *p-8XInterpolation*p3686Y*p450X(SSI) *p+6Xof *p+6X *p+6XParrish *p+6Xand *p+6XDerbe*p+2Xr*p+2X *p+8X(1992), *p+6Xwhich *p+6Xis *p+6Xa*p3786Y*p450Xthree-dimensional *p-8Xvariational *p-8Xanalysis *p-10X(3-D *p-8Xvar.)*p3886Y*p450Xscheme. *p+28XT1B *p+28Xis *p+28Xused *p+28X(*p+2XM*p+2Xc*p+2XN*p+2Xally *p+28Xet *p+28Xal., *p+28X2000,*p3986Y*p450XD*p+2Xe*p+2Xr*p+2Xb*p+2Xer *p+2Xand *p+2XWu *p+2X1998) *p+2Xfor *p+2Xdata *p+2Xassimilation *p+2Xan*p+2Xd*p4086Y*p450Xthe *p+6XMarch *p+6X199*p+2X9*p+2X *p+6Xversion *p+6Xof *p+6XNCEPs *p+6Xoperational*p4186Y*p450XMedium *p+54XRange *p+54XForecast *p+54X(MRF)*p+2X *p+54Xand *p+54Xdata*p4286Y*p450Xassimilation *p-10Xsystem *p-8Xare *p-8Xused *p-10Xfor *p-10Xthe *p-10Xdata *p-10Ximpact*p4386Y*p450Xtest. *p-4X *p-4XLine *p-6Xof *p-6Xsight *p-4X(LOS) *p-4Xwinds *p-4Xfrom *p-4Xinstrument*p4486Y*p450Xsuch *p+2Xas *p+2XDoppler *p+2XWind *p+2XLid*p+2Xar *p+2X(DWL) *p+2Xare *p+2Xdirectly*p4586Y*p450Xused in the data assimilation. *p4686Y*p750XThe*p+2X *p+24Xfollowing *p+22Xupgrades *p+22Xof *p+22Xthe *p+22XNCEP*p4786Y*p450Xoperational *p+30Xdata *p+30Xassimilation *p+32Xs*p+2Xy*p+2Xstem *p+30Xare *p+30Xin*p4886Y*p450Xprogress.*p4986Y*p450X *p5086Y*p510XD*p+6Xe*p+6Xv*p+6Xe*p+6Xl*p+6Xo*p+6Xp*p+6Xm*p+6Xe*p+6Xn*p+6Xt*p+6X *p+78Xo*p+6Xf*p+6X *p+78Xs*p+6Xi*p+6Xt*p+8Xu*p+8Xa*p+8Xt*p+8Xi*p+8Xo*p+8Xn*p+6X-*p+6Xd*p+6Xe*p+6Xp*p+6Xe*p+6Xn*p+6Xd*p+6Xe*p+6Xn*p+6Xt*p5186Y*p450Xbackground *p+10Xerror *p+10X *p+10Xcovariances *p+10Xfor *p+10Xglobal *p+10Xand*p5286Y*p450Xregional systems (Purser and Parrish, 2000).*p5386Y*p504XBias correction of background field.*p5486Y*p508XI*p+4Xm*p+2Xp*p+2Xr*p+2Xo*p+2Xv*p+2Xe*p+2Xd*p+4X *p+76Xm*p+4Xo*p+4Xi*p+4Xs*p+4Xt*p+4Xu*p+4Xr*p+4Xe*p+4X *p+76Xb*p+4Xa*p+4Xc*p+4Xk*p+4Xg*p+4Xr*p+4Xo*p+4Xu*p+4Xn*p+4Xd*p+4X *p+76Xe*p+4Xr*p+4Xr*p+4Xo*p+4Xr*p5586Y*p450Xcovariances.*p5686Y*p504XDevelopment of cloud analysis system. *p5886Y*p750XData *p+28Xfrom *p+28XNPP/NPOESS *p+28Xi*p+2Xnstruments,*p586Y*p2474XQuikScat *p+8Xobservations, *p+10XG*p+2XCP *p+8Xradio-occultation*p686Y*p2474Xobservations, *p+34X *p+34XGIFTS,*p+2X *p+36XD*p+2XM*p+2XSP *p+34X(SSM/IS), *p+34Xand*p786Y*p2474Xi*p-2Xm*p-2Xager *p-10Xradiances *p-10X(MODIS, *p-10XGOES, *p-10XAVHRR) *p-10Xare*p-2X *p-10Xa*p-2Xl*p-2Xl*p886Y*p2474Xplanned to be included at a later time.*p1086Y*p2474X5. CALIBRATION FOR OSSE*p1286Y*p2774XC*p-2Xa*p-2Xl*p-2Xi*p-2Xb*p-2Xr*p-2Xa*p-2Xt*p-2Xi*p-2Xo*p-2Xn*p-2Xs *p-10Xfor *p-10XOSSEs *p-10Xare *p-10Xperformed *p-10Xfor*p1386Y*p2474Xexisting *p-10Xinstruments *p-8Xand *p-8Xsome *p-8Xinitial *p-10Xresults *p-10Xare*p1486Y*p2474Xpresented *p-6Xin *p-6XLord *p-4Xet *p-6Xal. *p-6X(2001b) *p-6Xand *p-6X *p-6XMasutani *p-6Xet*p1586Y*p2474Xal. *p+44X(2001). *p+44X *p+44XDenial *p+44Xof *p+44XRAOB *p+44Xwind, *p+44XRAOB*p1686Y*p2474Xt*p+6Xe*p+6Xm*p+6Xp*p+6Xe*p+6Xr*p+6Xa*p+6Xt*p+6Xu*p+6Xr*p+6Xe*p+6X,*p+6X *p+78Xa*p+6Xn*p+6Xd*p+6X *p+78XT*p+6X1*p+6XB*p+6X *p+78Xw*p+6Xi*p+8Xt*p+8Xh*p+8X *p+80Xv*p+8Xa*p+8Xr*p+8Xi*p+8Xo*p+8Xu*p+6Xs*p1786Y*p2474Xcombinations are tested. *p1986Y*p2474X5.1 (19U(s16602t3b1s10v1PProcedure*p2186Y*p2774X(19U(s16602t3b0s10v1PA *p+46Xschematic *p+44Xdiagram *p+44Xof *p+44Xthe *p+44XOSSE*p2286Y*p2474Xcalibra*p+2Xt*p+2Xi*p+2Xo*p+2Xn*p+2X *p+30Xprocedure *p+30Xis *p+30Xgiven *p+30Xin *p+30XFig.1. *p+30XOn*p2386Y*p2474XJanuary1, *p+58X1993 *p+58Xthe *p+58Xinitial *p+58Xcond*p+2Xi*p+2Xtion *p+58Xwas*p2486Y*p2474Xprovided from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For*p2586Y*p2474Xthe *p-10Xr*p-2Xeanalysis, *p-10Xsatellite *p-10Xderived *p-10Xtemperature *p-10Xwas*p2686Y*p2474Xused. *p+6X *p+6XStarting *p+6Xfrom *p+6XJanuary *p+6X1, *p+6X1*p+2X9*p+2X9*p+2X3, *p+6Xa *p+6Xswitch*p2786Y*p2474Xwas *p+28Xmade *p+28X *p+28Xto *p+28XOS*p+2XS*p+2XE *p+28Xsystem *p+28Xwith *p+28Xthe *p+28X1999*p2886Y*p2474Xversion *p+2Xof *p+2XMRF *p+2Xand *p+2XSSI *p+2Xwith *p+2Xa*p+2Xn*p+2Xd*p+2X *p+4Xw*p+2Xi*p+2Xt*p+2Xh*p+2Xout *p+2X *p+2XT1B*p2986Y*p2474X(Jan_1B, *p+26XJa*p+2Xn*p+2X_*p+2XN*p+2XTV). *p+26X *p+26X *p+26XBoth *p+26Xsystems *p+26Xhave *p+26Xa*p3086Y*p2474Xresolution *p-4Xof *p-2XT62. *p-4X *p-4X *p-4X *p-4XSimulated *p-4Xexperiments *p-4X *p-4Xuse*p3186Y*p2474Xinitial *p-10Xconditions *p-10Xfrom*p-2X *p-10Xe*p-2Xi*p-2Xt*p-2Xh*p-2Xer *p-10XJan_1B *p-10Xor *p-10XJan_NTV*p3286Y*p2474Xat *p+14X06z *p+14X5 *p+14XFebraury *p+14X1993. *p+14X *p+14XThe *p+14Xperio*p+2Xd*p+2X *p+16Xb*p+2Xetween*p3386Y*p2474XFebruary *p+4X5 *p+4Xand *p+6XF*p+2Xe*p+2Xb*p+2Xr*p+2Xu*p+2Xary *p+4X13 *p+4Xis *p+4Xused *p+4Xas *p+4Xspinup*p3486Y*p2474Xperiod. *p-6XOther *p-6Xdata *p-6Xare *p-6Xadded *p-8Xor *p-6Xdenied *p-6Xat *p-6X00Z *p-6X13*p3586Y*p2474XFebruary. *p+12X *p+12X *p+12XThe *p+12Xdata *p+12Xinclud*p+2Xe*p+2Xd *p+12Xin *p+12Xexperiments*p3686Y*p2474Xdiscussed *p-6Xin *p-6Xthis *p-6Xpaper *p-4Xare *p-4Xgiven *p-4Xin *p-4XTable *p-4X1. *p-4X *p-4XAll*p3786Y*p2474Xother *p+2Xdata, *p+2Xsuch *p+2Xas *p+2Xsurface *p+2Xdata, *p+2XACARS*p+2X, *p+2XCMV*p3886Y*p2474Xare included in all experiments.*p4086Y*p2474X5.1 (19U(s16602t3b1s10v1PGeographical Distribution*p4286Y*p2774X(19U(s16602t3b0s10v1PThe *p-10Ximpact *p-10Xis *p-10Xmeasure*p-2Xd*p-2X *p-10Xa*p-2Xs *p-10Xdifferences *p-10Xin*p4386Y*p2474Xgeographical *p-6Xdistribution *p-6Xbetween *p-8Xanalysis *p-6Xand*p4486Y*p2474Xforecast *p+26Xfields. *p+26X *p+26XThe *p+26Xresults *p+26Xshow *p+26Xgenerally*p4586Y*p2474Xsatisfactor*p+2Xy *p+52Xagreements *p+52Xbetween *p+52Xreal *p+52Xand*p4686Y*p2474Xsimulated impact (Lord et al. 2001b).*p4786Y*p2774XIn *p+14XNH,*p+2X *p+16Xt*p+2Xh*p+2Xe*p+2X *p+16Ximpact *p+14Xof *p+14XRAOB *p+14Xwinds *p+14X(R-*p4886Y*p2474XWind) *p+2Xis *p+2Xslightly *p+2Xweaker *p+2Xin *p+2Xsimulation *p+2X *p+2Xa*p+2Xn*p+2Xd*p+2X *p+4Xt*p+2Xhe*p4986Y*p2474Ximpact *p+36Xof *p+36XRAOB *p+36Xtemperature *p+36X(R-Temp) *p+36X *p+36Xis*p5086Y*p2474Xslightly *p-2Xstronger *p-2Xin *p-2Xthe *p-2Xsimulation. Particularly*p5186Y*p2474Xin *p+2Xtropics, *p+2Xthe*p+2Xr*p+2Xe *p+2Xis *p+2Xa *p+2Xlarge *p+2Ximpact *p+2Xof *p+2XR-Temp *p+2Xin*p5286Y*p2474Xthe *p+32Xanalysis *p+32Xwhich *p+32Xdoes *p+34Xn*p+2Xo*p+2Xt*p+2X *p+32Xincrease *p+32Xwith*p5386Y*p2474Xforecast *p-8Xhour. *p-8X *p-6XImpact *p-6Xof *p-6XT1B *p-6Xis *p-6Xslightly *p-6Xlarger *p-6Xin*p5486Y*p2474Xthe *p+22Xsimulation. *p+24X *p+24XI*p+2Xn*p+2X *p+24Xthe *p+22Xnorthern *p+22Xhemisphere*p5586Y*p2474X(NH), *p-8XT1B *p-6Xhas *p-6Xlittle *p-6Ximpact *p-6Xover *p-6XEurope *p-8Xand *p-8XAsia*p5686Y*p2474Xbut *p-2Xshows *p-2X *p-2Ximpact *p-2Xover *p-2Xthe *p-2XPacific *p-4Xfor *p-2Xboth *p-2Xreal*p5786Y*p2474Xand *p+10Xsimulated *p+10Xanalyses. *p+10X *p+10XThe *p+10Xmagnitud*p+2Xe*p+2Xs*p+2X *p+12Xare*p5886Y*p2474Xslightly *p+20Xlarger *p+20Xin *p+20Xsimulation *p+20Xbut *p+20Xpatterns *p+20Xare*p5042Y*p448X*v7S*r1A*b2M*b4W?*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W?*p5342Y*b4W?*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W?*p5442Y*b4W?*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W?*p5642Y*b4W?*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*b4W*rC*p464X*v7S*r1A*b2M*b3W?*rC *b0M *p586Y*p450Xsimilar. *p+4X *p+4X *p+4XIn *p+4Xt*p+2Xh*p+2Xe*p+2X *p+6X7*p+2X2*p+2X *p+6Xh*p+2Xo*p+2Xur *p+4Xforecast *p+4Xthe *p+4Ximpact *p+4Xof*p686Y*p450XT1B *p+18X *p+18Xspre*p+2Xa*p+2Xd*p+2Xs *p+18Xout *p+18Xover *p+18Xthe *p+18XNH *p+18Xand *p+18Xshows *p+18Xa*p786Y*p450Xsimilar *p+14Xm*p+2Xa*p+2Xg*p+2Xnitude *p+12Xof *p+12X *p+12Ximpact *p+12Xcompared *p+12Xto *p+12XR-*p886Y*p450XT*p+2Xe*p+2Xm*p+2Xp*p+2X. *p+4X *p+4X *p+4XIn *p+4XSH, *p+4XT1B *p+4Xdominates. *p+4X *p+4XHowever, *p+4Xw*p+2Xi*p+2Xt*p+2Xh*p986Y*p450XT1B, *p+12XRAOB *p+12Xdata *p+12Xdo *p+12Xe*p+2Xx*p+2Xh*p+2Xi*p+2Xbit *p+12Xsome *p+12Ximpact *p+12Xand*p1086Y*p450Xtheir *p-8Ximpacts *p-8Xare *p-6Xsimilar *p-6Xbetween *p-6Xsimulated *p-6Xand*p1186Y*p450Xreal analysis.*p1286Y*p750XThe *p-6Xlarger *p-8Ximpact *p-8Xof *p-8XT1B *p-8Xin *p-8Xsimulation *p-6Xis*p1386Y*p450Xexpecte*p+2Xd*p+2X *p+8Xb*p+2Xecause *p+6Xof *p+6Xthe *p+6Xlack *p+6Xof *p+6Xmeasurement*p1486Y*p450Xerror *p-4Xin *p-4Xthe *p-4Xsimulated *p-4Xdata. *p-4XUnder-estimation *p-4Xof*p1586Y*p450Xthe *p+18Xcloud *p+18Xeffe*p+2Xc*p+2Xt *p+18Xin *p+18Xthe *p+18Xsimulation *p+18Xis *p+18Xanother*p1686Y*p450Xpossible *p+24Xreason *p+24Xfor *p+24Xthe *p+24Xlarg*p+2Xe*p+2X *p+26Xi*p+2Xm*p+2Xp*p+2Xact *p+24Xin *p+24Xthe*p1786Y*p450Xsimulation. *p-10X *p-8XThe *p-8Xlarge *p-8Xanalysis *p-8Ximpact *p-8X *p-10Xin *p-10Xtropics*p1886Y*p450Xm*p+2Xa*p+2Xy*p+2X *p+10Xb*p+2Xe *p+8Xrelated *p+8Xto *p+8Xthe *p+8Xbias *p+8Xbetween *p+8Xthe *p+8XNCE*p+2XP*p1986Y*p450Xmodel *p+24Xand *p+24Xthe *p+24Xnature *p+24Xrun. *p+24XIncluding *p+24Xa*p+2X *p+26Xb*p+2Xias*p2086Y*p450Xcorrection *p+26Xin *p+26Xthe *p+26Xdata *p+26Xas*p+2Xs*p+2Xi*p+2Xm*p+2Xilation *p+26Xis *p+26Xbeing*p2186Y*p450Xconsidered (Purser and Derber, 2001). *p2486Y*p450X5.2 (19U(s16602t3b1s10v1PImpact on forecast Skill*p4704Y*p450X(19U(s16602t3b0s10v1PFig.2 *p+30XAnomaly *p+30Xcorrelation *p+30Xskill *p+32Xf*p+2Xo*p+2Xr*p+2X *p+30X72 *p+30Xhour*p4804Y*p450Xforecast for 500 hPa height fields.*p5104Y*p750XAnomaly *p-2Xcorrelations *p-4Xfor *p-4X500hPa *p-4Xheight*p5204Y*p450Xfields *p+52Xfor *p+52X72 *p+52Xhour *p+52Xforecast *p+52Xskill *p+52Xfor*p+2X *p+54Xthe*p5304Y*p450Xexperiments *p+12Xwithout *p+12XT1B *p+12X *p+12X(NTV),*p+2X *p+12Xexperiments*p5404Y*p450Xwithout *p-10XR-Wind *p-8X(1BNWIN), *p-10X *p-10Xexperiments *p-10Xwithout*p5504Y*p450XR-Temp (1BNTMP) *p-2Xare presented in Fig. 2. The*p5604Y*p450Xforecast *p+2Xskills *p+2Xare *p+2Xverified*p+2X *p+2Xagainst *p+2Xexperiments*p5704Y*p450Xwith *p-2Xall *p-2Xdata *p-4X(CTL). *p-4X *p-4XFor *p-4Xboth *p-4Xreal *p-4Xand *p-4Xsimulated*p5804Y*p450Xexperiments, *p+10X1BNWIN *p+10Xshows *p+10Xleast *p+10Xskil*p+2Xl*p+2X *p+12Xin *p+10Xthe*p586Y*p2474Xnorthern *p-10Xhemisphere *p-10X(NH) *p-10Xand *p-10Xglobally *p-8Xless *p-8Xskill*p686Y*p2474Xcompare *p+14Xto *p+14X1BNTMP. *p+14X *p+14XT*p+2Xh*p+2Xe*p+2Xr*p+2Xefore *p+14XR_Wind *p+14Xhas*p786Y*p2474Xmore *p+26Ximpact *p+26Xcompared *p+26Xto *p+26XR_temp *p+26Xin *p+26X *p+28Xb*p+2Xo*p+2Xth*p886Y*p2474Xsimulation and real and both NH and SH. *p986Y*p2774XThe *p-4Xsimulated *p-4XT1B *p-6Xdata *p-6Xare *p-6Xknown *p-4Xto *p-4Xbe*p1086Y*p2474Xof *p+10Xbetter *p+10Xqua*p+2Xlity *p+10Xthan *p+10Xthe *p+10Xreal *p+10XT1B, *p+10Xbecause*p1186Y*p2474Xvarious *p+6Xsystematic *p+8Xe*p+2Xrrors *p+6Xand *p+6Xcorrelated *p+6Xlarge*p1286Y*p2474Xs*p+2Xc*p+2Xa*p+2Xl*p+2Xe *p+32Xerrors 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