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Monsoon Desk

CFS and Asian Monsoon

Hu, Z.-Z.,A. Kumar, B. Huang, J. Zhu and Y. Guan : Predictino skill of North Pacific variability in NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 : impact of ENSO and beyond, Journal of Climate (available online), 2014.

Saha, S., and Coauthors : The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2, Journal of Climate, 27, 6, 2185-2208, 2014.

Jiang, X., S. Yang, Y. Li, A. Kumar, X. Liu, Z. Zuo and B. Jha : Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 ; J. Climate, 26, 11, 3708-27, 2013.

Jiang, X., S. Yang, Y. Li, A. Kumar, W. Wang and Z. Gao : Dynamical prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1312–1328, doi : 10.1002/jgrd.50193, 2013.

Kumar, A., M. Chen and W. Wang : Understanding prediction skill of seasonal mean precipitation over the tropics, J. Climate, 26, 5674-5681, 2013.

Peng, P. A. G. Barnston and A. Kumar : A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 445–462, 2013.

Gao, H., S. Yang, A. Kumar, Z.-Z. Hu, B. Huang, Y. Li and B. Jha : Variations of the East Asian Mei-yu and simulation and prediction by the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; J. Climate, 24, 94-108, 2011.

Wen, M., S. Yang, A. Vintzileos, W. Higgins and R. Zhang : Impacts of model resolutions and initial conditions on predictions of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; Weather Forecasting, 27,629-46, 2011.

Yang, S., M. Wen, R. Yang, W. Higgins and R. Zhang : Impacts of land process on the onset and evolution of Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 6,1301-17, 2011.

Zuo, Z., S. Yang, W. Wang, A. Kumar, Y. Xue and R. Zhang : Relationship between anomalies of Eurasian snow and southern China rainfall in winter ; Environ. Res. Lett., 6, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045402, 2011.

Li, Y. and S. Yang : A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 23, 4255-4262, 2010.

Saha, S., and Coauthors : The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015–1057, 2010.

Liang, J., S. Yang, Z.-Z. Hu, B. Huang, A. Kumar and Z. Zhang : Predictable patterns of Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS ; Climate Dynamics, 32, 989-1001, 2009.

Yang, S., M. Wen and R. W. Higgins : Sub-seasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; ACTA Oceanologica Sinica, 27, 88-103. 2008.

Yang, S., Z. Zhang, V. E. Kousky, R. W. Higgins, S.-H. Yoo, J. Liang and Y. Fan : Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; J. Climate, 21, 3755-3775, 2008.


Wang, X., D. Parrish, D. Kleist and J. S. Whitaker : GSI 3DVar-based Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation for NCEP Global Forecast System: Single Resolution Experiments ; Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 11, 4098-4117, 2013.

Kleist, D. T., D. F. Parrish, J. C. Derber, R. Treadon, W.-S. Wu and S. Lord : Introduction of the GSI into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System ; Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1691–1705, doi: 10.1175/2009WAF2222201.1, 2009.

From Indian Agencies/Centres/Institutes


Chaudhari, H. S., Pokhrel, S., Saha, S. K., Dhakate, A. and Hazra, A. : Improved depiction of Indian summer monsoon in latest high resolution NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.4196.

Sahai, A. K., S. Abhilash, R. Chattopadhay, N. Borah, S. Joseph, S. Sharmila and M. Rajeevan : High-resolution operational monsoon forecasts : an objective assessment, Climate Dynamics (online access).

Panickal, S., R. Krishnan and J. M. Wallace : Indian Ocean and monsoon coupled interactions in a warming environment, Climate Dynamics, 42, 9-10, 2439-2454 (online access).

Prasad, V. S., S. Mohandas, S. K. Dutta, M. Das Gupta, G. R. Iyengar, E. N. Rajagopal and S. Basu : Improvements in medium range weather forecasting system of India ; Journal of Earth System Science, 123, 2, 247-259.

Chowdary, J. S., H. S. Chaudhari, C. Gnanaseelan, A. Parekh, A. S. Rao, P. Sreenivas, S. Pokhrel and P. Singh : Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system, Climate Dynamics, 42, 7-8, 1925-1947.

Durai, V. R. and S. K. Roy Bhowmik : Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382 ; Climate Dynamics, 42, 5-6, 1527-1551.

Goswami, B. B., M. Deshpande, P. Mukhopadhay, S. K. Saha, S. A. Rao, R. Muthugudde and B. N. Goswami : Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal variability in NCEP CFSv2 and its role on systematic bias, Climate Dynamics, November 2014, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2089-5, 2725-2745

Abhilash, S., A. K. Sahai, S. Pattanik, B. N. Goswami and A. Kumar : Extended range prediction of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using an ensemble prediction system in NCEP Climate Forecast System, International Journal of Climatology, 34, 1, 98-113.

Abhilash, S., A. K. Sahai, N. Borah, R. Chattopadhay, S. Joseph, S. Sharmila, S. De, B. N. Goswami and A. Kumar : Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasoanl oscillation over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2, Climate Dynamics, (published online)


Ashrit, R., G. R. Iyengar, S. Sankar, A. Ashish, A. Dube, S. K. Dutta, V. S. Prasad, E.N. Rajagopal and S. Basu : Performance of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) During Monsoon 2012 ; NMRF/RR/01/2013, 37 pp., 2013.

Chaudhari, H. S., S. Pokhrel, S. Mohanty and S. Saha : Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model ; Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 114, 3-4, 459-77, 2013.

Pattnaik, S., S. Abhilash, S. De, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani and B. N. Goswami : Influence of convective parameterization on the systematic errors of Climate Forecast System (CFS) model over the Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 2, 341-365, 2013.

Pokhrel, S., A. Dhakate, H. K. S. Chaudhari and S. K. Saha : Status of NCEP CFS vis-avis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian Summar monsoon, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 111, 1-2, 65-78, 2013.

Prasad, V. S., A. Gupta, E.N. Rajagopal and S. Basu : Impact of OSCAT surface wind data on T574L64 assimilation and forecasting system – a study involving tropical cyclone Thane ; Current Science, 104, 5, 625-631, 2013.

Roxy, M., Y. Tanimoto, D. Preethi, P. Terray and R. Krishnan : Intrasesonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 45-61, 2013.

Saha, S., S. Pokhrel and H. S. Chaudhari : Influence of Eurasian snow on Indian summer monsoon in NCEP CFSv2 freerun ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 7-8, 1801-15, 2013.

Sahai A. K., S. Sharmila, S. Abhilash, R. Chattopadhyay, N. Borah, R. P. M. Krishna, S. Joseph, M. Roxy, S. De, S. Pattnaik and P. A. Pillai : Simulation and extended range prediction of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework; Current Science, 104 (10), 1394-1408, 2013.

Sharmila, S., P. A. Pillai, S. Joseph, M. Roxy, R. P. Krishna, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Abhilash, A. K. Sahai and B. N. Goswami : Role of ocean-atmoshpere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscilations (MISO) ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 1651-1669, 2013.


Dutta, S. K. and V. S. Prasad : Impact of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation Scheme over Indian Region ; J. Earth Syst. Sci., 120, 6, 1095-1112, 2011.

Prasad, V. S., S. Mohandas, M. Das Gupta, E.N. Rajagopal and S. K. Dutta : Implementation of Upgraded Global Forecasting Systems (T382L64 and T574L64) at NCMRWF ; NCMR/TR/5/2011, 77 p., 2011.