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Monsoon Desk

CFS and Asian Monsoon

Lim,K-S. S., Hong, S-Y, Yoon, J-H and Han, J. : Simulation of the summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia using the NCEP GFS cumulus parameterization at different horizontal resolutions, Weather Forecasting, 29, 1143–1154, 2014.

Hu, Z.-Z.,A. Kumar, B. Huang, J. Zhu and Y. Guan : Predictino skill of North Pacific variability in NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 : impact of ENSO and beyond, Journal of Climate, 27, 4263–4272, 2014.

Saha, S., and Coauthors : The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2, Journal of Climate, 27, 6, 2185-2208, 2014.

Jiang, X., S. Yang, Y. Li, A. Kumar, X. Liu, Z. Zuo and B. Jha : Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 ; J. Climate, 26, 11, 3708-27, 2013.

Jiang, X., S. Yang, Y. Li, A. Kumar, W. Wang and Z. Gao : Dynamical prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1312–1328, doi : 10.1002/jgrd.50193, 2013.

Kumar, A., M. Chen and W. Wang : Understanding prediction skill of seasonal mean precipitation over the tropics, J. Climate, 26, 5674-5681, 2013.

Peng, P. A. G. Barnston and A. Kumar : A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 445–462, 2013.

Gao, H., S. Yang, A. Kumar, Z.-Z. Hu, B. Huang, Y. Li and B. Jha : Variations of the East Asian Mei-yu and simulation and prediction by the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; J. Climate, 24, 94-108, 2011.

Wen, M., S. Yang, A. Vintzileos, W. Higgins and R. Zhang : Impacts of model resolutions and initial conditions on predictions of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; Weather Forecasting, 27,629-46, 2011.

Yang, S., M. Wen, R. Yang, W. Higgins and R. Zhang : Impacts of land process on the onset and evolution of Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 6,1301-17, 2011.

Zuo, Z., S. Yang, W. Wang, A. Kumar, Y. Xue and R. Zhang : Relationship between anomalies of Eurasian snow and southern China rainfall in winter ; Environ. Res. Lett., 6, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045402, 2011.

Li, Y. and S. Yang : A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 23, 4255-4262, 2010.

Saha, S., and Coauthors : The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015–1057, 2010.

Liang, J., S. Yang, Z.-Z. Hu, B. Huang, A. Kumar and Z. Zhang : Predictable patterns of Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS ; Climate Dynamics, 32, 989-1001, 2009.

Yang, S., M. Wen and R. W. Higgins : Sub-seasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; ACTA Oceanologica Sinica, 27, 88-103. 2008.

Yang, S., Z. Zhang, V. E. Kousky, R. W. Higgins, S.-H. Yoo, J. Liang and Y. Fan : Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; J. Climate, 21, 3755-3775, 2008.


Wang, X., D. Parrish, D. Kleist and J. S. Whitaker : GSI 3DVar-based Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation for NCEP Global Forecast System: Single Resolution Experiments ; Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 11, 4098-4117, 2013.

Kleist, D. T., D. F. Parrish, J. C. Derber, R. Treadon, W.-S. Wu and S. Lord : Introduction of the GSI into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System ; Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1691–1705, doi: 10.1175/2009WAF2222201.1, 2009.

From Indian Agencies/Centres/Institutes


Chattopadhyay R., Suryachandra A. Rao, Sabeerali C.T., George G., Rao Nagarjuna D., Dhakate A., Salunke K.: Large-scale teleconnection patterns of Indian summer monsoon as revealed by CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecast runs, International Journal of Climatology, 36, July 2016, DOI:10.1002/joc.4556, 3297–3313.

Chaudhari, H., Pokrel, S., Kulkarni, A., Hazra, A., Saha, S. K. : Clouds–SST relationship and interannual variability modes of Indian summer monsoon in the context of clouds and SSTs: observational and modelling aspects, International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4664, 2016.

Chowdary J.S., Parekh A., Kakatkar R., Gnanaseelan C., Srinivas G., Singh Prem, Roxy M.: Tropical Indian Ocean response to the decay phase of El Niño in a coupled model and associated changes in south and east-Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall,Climate Dynamics, 47, August 2016, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2874-9, 831–844.

Chowdary, J. S., Parekh, A.,Ojha, S., Gnanaseelan, C. and Kakatkar, R. : impact of upper ocean processes and air–sea fluxes on seasonal SST biases over the tropical Indian Ocean in the NCEP Climate Forecasting System,International Journal of Climatology, 36,1,188-207, 2016.

Saha, S.K., Pokhrel, S., Salunke, K., Dhakate, A., Chaudhari, H., Rahaman, H., Sujith, K., Hazra, A. and Sikka, D.R. : Potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, DOI : 10.1002/2015MS000542, 2016.

Prakash, S., Momin, I. M., Mitra, A., Bhattacharjee, P. S.,Yang, F. and Tallapragada, V. : An Early Assessment of Medium Range Monsoon Precipitation Forecasts from the Latest High-Resolution NCEP-GFS (T1534) Model over South Asia, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 10.1007/s00024-016-1248-5, 2016.


Goswami, B. B., Krishna, R. P. M., Mukhopadhay, P., Khairoutdinov, M. and Goswami, B. N. : Simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon in the Superparameterized Climate Forecast System Version 2: Preliminary Results. J. Climate, 28, 8988–9012, 2015.

Swapna, P., Roxy, M. K., Aparna, K., Kulkarni, K., Prajeesh, A. G., Ashok, K., Krishnan, R., Moorthi, S., Kumar, A. and Goswami, B. N. : The IITM Earth System Model: Transformation of a Seasonal Prediction Model to a Long-Term Climate Model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 1351–1367, 2015.

Abhik, S., Mukhopadhyay, P., Krishna, R. P. M., Salunke, K. D., Dhakate, A. R., Rao, S. : Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system, Climate Dynamics, online, August 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2769-9, 1-17, 2015.

Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Rajeevan M., Mapes B.E., Kumar A. : Improved Spread–Error Relationship and Probabilistic Prediction from the CFS-Based Grand Ensemble Prediction System, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015, DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0200.1, 1569-1578, 2015.

Chaudhari, H.S., Pokhrel, S., Rahman, H., Dhakate, A., Saha, S. K., Pentakota, S. and R. M. Gairola : Influence of upper ocean on Indian summer monsoon rainfall : studies by observation and CNEP climate forecast system (CFSv2), Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI : 10.1007/s00704-015-1521-z, 2015.

Chaudhari, H.S., Hazra, A., Saha, S. K., Dhakate, A. and S. Pokhrel : Indian summer monsoon simulations with CFSv2 : a microphysics perspective, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI : 10.1007/s00704-015-1515-x.

Chowdary, J. S., A.B. Bandgar, C. Gnanaseelan, J.-J.Luo : Role of tropical Indian Ocean air-sea interactions in modulating Indian summer monsoon in a coupled model, Atmospheric Science Letters, 16, DOI : 10.1002/asl2.561, 170-176,2015 .

De, S., Hazra, A. and H. S. Chaudhari : Does the modification in "critical relative humidity" of NCEP CFSv2 dictate Indian mean summer monsoon forecast ? Evaluation through thermodynamical and dynamical aspects, Climate Dynamics, DOI : 10.1007/s00382-015-2640-z.

Hazra, A., Chaudhari, H. S. and A. Dhakate : Evaluation of cloud properties in the NCEP CFSv2 model and its linkage with Indian summer monsoon, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI : 10.1007/s00704-015-1404-3.

Hazra, A., H. S. Chaudhari, S. A. Rao, B.N. Goswami, A. Dhakate, S. Pokhrel and S. K. Saha : Impact of revised cloud microphysical scheme in CFSv2 on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon, International Journal of Climatology, online, DOI : 10.1002/joc.4320, 1-18, 2015.

Parekh, A., J.S.Chowdary, S. Ojha,T. S. Fousiya, C. Gnanaseelan : Tropical Indian Ocean surface salinity bias in Climate Forecasting System coupled models and the role of upper ocean processes, Climate Dynamics, DOI : 10.1007/s00382-015-2709-8, 1-20, 2015.

Pokhrel, S., Saha, S. K., Dhakate, A., Rahman, H., Chaudhari, H. S., Salunke, K., Hazra, A., Sujith, K. and D. R. Sikka : Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2 : forecast and predictability error, Climate Dynamics, DOI : 10.1007/s00382-015-2703-1.


Chaudhari, H. S., Pokhrel, S., Saha, S. K., Dhakate, A. and Hazra, A. : Improved depiction of Indian summer monsoon in latest high resolution NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.4196.

Ganai, M.,Mukhopadhay, P. Phani, R. and Mahakur, M. : The impact of revised simplified Arakawa-Schubert convection parameterization scheme in CFSv2 on the simulation of the Indian Summer monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-014-2230-4.

Sahai, A. K., S. Abhilash, R. Chattopadhay, N. Borah, S. Joseph, S. Sharmila and M. Rajeevan : High-resolution operational monsoon forecasts : an objective assessment, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-014-2210-9.

Panickal, S., R. Krishnan and J. M. Wallace : Indian Ocean and monsoon coupled interactions in a warming environment, Climate Dynamics, 42, 9-10, 2439-2454.

Prasad, V. S., S. Mohandas, S. K. Dutta, M. Das Gupta, G. R. Iyengar, E. N. Rajagopal and S. Basu : Improvements in medium range weather forecasting system of India ; Journal of Earth System Science, 123, 2, 247-259.

Chowdary, J. S., H. S. Chaudhari, C. Gnanaseelan, A. Parekh, A. S. Rao, P. Sreenivas, S. Pokhrel and P. Singh : Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system, Climate Dynamics, 42, 7-8, 1925-1947.

Durai, V. R. and S. K. Roy Bhowmik : Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382 ; Climate Dynamics, 42, 5-6, 1527-1551.

Goswami, B. B., M. Deshpande, P. Mukhopadhay, S. K. Saha, S. A. Rao, R. Muthugudde and B. N. Goswami : Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal variability in NCEP CFSv2 and its role on systematic bias, Climate Dynamics, 43, 9-10, 2725-2745.

Abhilash, S., A. K. Sahai, S. Pattanik, B. N. Goswami and A. Kumar : Extended range prediction of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using an ensemble prediction system in NCEP Climate Forecast System, International Journal of Climatology, 34, 1, 98-113.

Pattanaik, D. R. and A. Kumar : Comparison of intera-seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon between two versions of NCEP coupled models, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 118, 1-2, 331-345.

Abhilash, S., A. K. Sahai, N. Borah, R. Chattopadhay, S. Joseph, S. Sharmila, S. De, B. N. Goswami and A. Kumar : Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasoanl oscillation over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2, Climate Dynamics, 42, 9-10, 2801-2815.


Ashrit, R., G. R. Iyengar, S. Sankar, A. Ashish, A. Dube, S. K. Dutta, V. S. Prasad, E.N. Rajagopal and S. Basu : Performance of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) During Monsoon 2012 ; NMRF/RR/01/2013, 37 pp., 2013.

Chaudhari, H. S., S. Pokhrel, S. Mohanty and S. Saha : Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model ; Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 114, 3-4, 459-77, 2013.

Pattnaik, S., S. Abhilash, S. De, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani and B. N. Goswami : Influence of convective parameterization on the systematic errors of Climate Forecast System (CFS) model over the Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 2, 341-365, 2013.

Pokhrel, S., A. Dhakate, H. K. S. Chaudhari and S. K. Saha : Status of NCEP CFS vis-avis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian Summar monsoon, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 111, 1-2, 65-78, 2013.

Prasad, V. S., A. Gupta, E.N. Rajagopal and S. Basu : Impact of OSCAT surface wind data on T574L64 assimilation and forecasting system – a study involving tropical cyclone Thane ; Current Science, 104, 5, 625-631, 2013.

Roxy, M., Y. Tanimoto, D. Preethi, P. Terray and R. Krishnan : Intrasesonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 45-61, 2013.

Saha, S., S. Pokhrel and H. S. Chaudhari : Influence of Eurasian snow on Indian summer monsoon in NCEP CFSv2 freerun ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 7-8, 1801-15, 2013.

Sahai A. K., S. Sharmila, S. Abhilash, R. Chattopadhyay, N. Borah, R. P. M. Krishna, S. Joseph, M. Roxy, S. De, S. Pattnaik and P. A. Pillai : Simulation and extended range prediction of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework; Current Science, 104 (10), 1394-1408, 2013.

Sharmila, S., P. A. Pillai, S. Joseph, M. Roxy, R. P. Krishna, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Abhilash, A. K. Sahai and B. N. Goswami : Role of ocean-atmoshpere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscilations (MISO) ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 1651-1669, 2013.


Dutta, S. K. and V. S. Prasad : Impact of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation Scheme over Indian Region ; J. Earth Syst. Sci., 120, 6, 1095-1112, 2011.

Prasad, V. S., S. Mohandas, M. Das Gupta, E.N. Rajagopal and S. K. Dutta : Implementation of Upgraded Global Forecasting Systems (T382L64 and T574L64) at NCMRWF ; NCMR/TR/5/2011, 77 p., 2011.