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Monsoon Desk

CFS and Asian Monsoon

Hu, Z.-Z.,A. Kumar, B. Huang, J. Zhu and Y. Guan : Predictino skill of North Pacific variability in NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 : impact of ENSO and beyond, Journal of Climate (available online), 2014.

Saha, S., and Coauthors : The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2, Journal of Climate, 27, 6, 2185-2208, 2014.

Jiang, X., S. Yang, Y. Li, A. Kumar, X. Liu, Z. Zuo and B. Jha : Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 ; J. Climate, 26, 11, 3708-27, 2013.

Jiang, X., S. Yang, Y. Li, A. Kumar, W. Wang and Z. Gao : Dynamical prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1312–1328, doi : 10.1002/jgrd.50193, 2013.

Kumar, A., M. Chen and W. Wang : Understanding prediction skill of seasonal mean precipitation over the tropics, J. Climate, 26, 5674-5681, 2013.

Peng, P. A. G. Barnston and A. Kumar : A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 445–462, 2013.

Gao, H., S. Yang, A. Kumar, Z.-Z. Hu, B. Huang, Y. Li and B. Jha : Variations of the East Asian Mei-yu and simulation and prediction by the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; J. Climate, 24, 94-108, 2011.

Wen, M., S. Yang, A. Vintzileos, W. Higgins and R. Zhang : Impacts of model resolutions and initial conditions on predictions of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; Weather Forecasting, 27,629-46, 2011.

Yang, S., M. Wen, R. Yang, W. Higgins and R. Zhang : Impacts of land process on the onset and evolution of Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 6,1301-17, 2011.

Zuo, Z., S. Yang, W. Wang, A. Kumar, Y. Xue and R. Zhang : Relationship between anomalies of Eurasian snow and southern China rainfall in winter ; Environ. Res. Lett., 6, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045402, 2011.

Li, Y. and S. Yang : A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 23, 4255-4262, 2010.

Saha, S., and Coauthors : The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015–1057, 2010.

Liang, J., S. Yang, Z.-Z. Hu, B. Huang, A. Kumar and Z. Zhang : Predictable patterns of Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS ; Climate Dynamics, 32, 989-1001, 2009.

Yang, S., M. Wen and R. W. Higgins : Sub-seasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; ACTA Oceanologica Sinica, 27, 88-103. 2008.

Yang, S., Z. Zhang, V. E. Kousky, R. W. Higgins, S.-H. Yoo, J. Liang and Y. Fan : Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System ; J. Climate, 21, 3755-3775, 2008.


Wang, X., D. Parrish, D. Kleist and J. S. Whitaker : GSI 3DVar-based Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation for NCEP Global Forecast System: Single Resolution Experiments ; Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 11, 4098-4117, 2013.

Kleist, D. T., D. F. Parrish, J. C. Derber, R. Treadon, W.-S. Wu and S. Lord : Introduction of the GSI into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System ; Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1691–1705, doi: 10.1175/2009WAF2222201.1, 2009.

From Indian Agencies/Centres/Institutes


Chaudhari, H. S., Pokhrel, S., Saha, S. K., Dhakate, A. and Hazra, A. : Improved depiction of Indian summer monsoon in latest high resolution NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.4196.

Ganai, M.,Mukhopadhay, P. Phani, R. and Mahakur, M. : The impact of revised simplified Arakawa-Schubert convection parameterization scheme in CFSv2 on the simulation of the Indian Summer monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-014-2230-4.

Sahai, A. K., S. Abhilash, R. Chattopadhay, N. Borah, S. Joseph, S. Sharmila and M. Rajeevan : High-resolution operational monsoon forecasts : an objective assessment, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-014-2210-9.

Panickal, S., R. Krishnan and J. M. Wallace : Indian Ocean and monsoon coupled interactions in a warming environment, Climate Dynamics, 42, 9-10, 2439-2454.

Prasad, V. S., S. Mohandas, S. K. Dutta, M. Das Gupta, G. R. Iyengar, E. N. Rajagopal and S. Basu : Improvements in medium range weather forecasting system of India ; Journal of Earth System Science, 123, 2, 247-259.

Chowdary, J. S., H. S. Chaudhari, C. Gnanaseelan, A. Parekh, A. S. Rao, P. Sreenivas, S. Pokhrel and P. Singh : Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system, Climate Dynamics, 42, 7-8, 1925-1947.

Durai, V. R. and S. K. Roy Bhowmik : Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382 ; Climate Dynamics, 42, 5-6, 1527-1551.

Goswami, B. B., M. Deshpande, P. Mukhopadhay, S. K. Saha, S. A. Rao, R. Muthugudde and B. N. Goswami : Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal variability in NCEP CFSv2 and its role on systematic bias, Climate Dynamics, 43, 9-10, 2725-2745.

Abhilash, S., A. K. Sahai, S. Pattanik, B. N. Goswami and A. Kumar : Extended range prediction of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using an ensemble prediction system in NCEP Climate Forecast System, International Journal of Climatology, 34, 1, 98-113.

Pattanaik, D. R. and A. Kumar : Comparison of intera-seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon between two versions of NCEP coupled models, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 118, 1-2, 331-345.

Abhilash, S., A. K. Sahai, N. Borah, R. Chattopadhay, S. Joseph, S. Sharmila, S. De, B. N. Goswami and A. Kumar : Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasoanl oscillation over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2, Climate Dynamics, 42, 9-10, 2801-2815.


Ashrit, R., G. R. Iyengar, S. Sankar, A. Ashish, A. Dube, S. K. Dutta, V. S. Prasad, E.N. Rajagopal and S. Basu : Performance of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) During Monsoon 2012 ; NMRF/RR/01/2013, 37 pp., 2013.

Chaudhari, H. S., S. Pokhrel, S. Mohanty and S. Saha : Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model ; Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 114, 3-4, 459-77, 2013.

Pattnaik, S., S. Abhilash, S. De, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani and B. N. Goswami : Influence of convective parameterization on the systematic errors of Climate Forecast System (CFS) model over the Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 2, 341-365, 2013.

Pokhrel, S., A. Dhakate, H. K. S. Chaudhari and S. K. Saha : Status of NCEP CFS vis-avis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian Summar monsoon, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 111, 1-2, 65-78, 2013.

Prasad, V. S., A. Gupta, E.N. Rajagopal and S. Basu : Impact of OSCAT surface wind data on T574L64 assimilation and forecasting system – a study involving tropical cyclone Thane ; Current Science, 104, 5, 625-631, 2013.

Roxy, M., Y. Tanimoto, D. Preethi, P. Terray and R. Krishnan : Intrasesonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 45-61, 2013.

Saha, S., S. Pokhrel and H. S. Chaudhari : Influence of Eurasian snow on Indian summer monsoon in NCEP CFSv2 freerun ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 7-8, 1801-15, 2013.

Sahai A. K., S. Sharmila, S. Abhilash, R. Chattopadhyay, N. Borah, R. P. M. Krishna, S. Joseph, M. Roxy, S. De, S. Pattnaik and P. A. Pillai : Simulation and extended range prediction of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework; Current Science, 104 (10), 1394-1408, 2013.

Sharmila, S., P. A. Pillai, S. Joseph, M. Roxy, R. P. Krishna, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Abhilash, A. K. Sahai and B. N. Goswami : Role of ocean-atmoshpere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscilations (MISO) ; Climate Dynamics, 41, 1651-1669, 2013.


Dutta, S. K. and V. S. Prasad : Impact of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation Scheme over Indian Region ; J. Earth Syst. Sci., 120, 6, 1095-1112, 2011.

Prasad, V. S., S. Mohandas, M. Das Gupta, E.N. Rajagopal and S. K. Dutta : Implementation of Upgraded Global Forecasting Systems (T382L64 and T574L64) at NCMRWF ; NCMR/TR/5/2011, 77 p., 2011.