NCEP/EMC Precipitation Skill Scores for Operational Models

Equitable threat and bias scores are available for the current month's forecasts, and for every month since January 1995.

Graphics of precipitation forecasts and analyses can be found here.

2014
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2013
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2012
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2011
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2010
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2009
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2008
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2007
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2006
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2005
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2004
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2003
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2002
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2001
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
2000
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
1999
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
1998
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
1997
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
1996
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
1995
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC


24h Forecast vs. Observed Precipitation Plots


Binbin Zhou's EMC Interactive web tool to plot grid-to-grid scores (including QPF)
Perry Shafran's EMC Interactive web tool to plot grid-to-obs scores
(The above two sites are currently only accessible from within the NCEP firewall)


Fanglin Yang's verification page; document on the Monte Carlo significance test


NCEP/WPC Verification Site


Notes/Errata
About the 1 Sep 2008 changes
User guide for the precipitation verification package
Q&A About the Precipitation Scores
Historical QPF VSDB files: streamlining/consolidation
Mike Baldwin's 2001 documentation on the old verification package


emc.external.helpdesk@noaa.gov

NCEP/EMC Mesoscale Modeling Branch