ETA SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FORECASTS

Here is the HPC sfc analysis for 12Z 1/25.

These are the forecasts of sea level pressure (Shuell) from the Eta valid at 12Z 1/25/00. We compare the trend in the model from run to run, overlaying 2 consecutive cycles. In each case, the older run is in red, while the newer run is in green. Note the westward trend and the trend to produce a slightly deeper low, but also note how similar the 18Z 1/24 and 00Z 1/25 runs are (the final plot), yet it is worth going back to observe how significantly different the precipitation forecasts from these 2 times are. This plots clearly nullify the myth that this storm was "missed" by the models. A significant east coast storm is clearly indicated; it was simply a matter of the track being forecast too far to the east.

00Z and 12Z 1/24/00

Note: SFC LOW DEPTH is 991(red) and 987(green)

12Z and 18Z 1/24/00

Note: SFC LOW DEPTH is 987(red) and 985(green)

18Z 1/24/00 and 00Z 1/25/00

Note: SFC LOW DEPTH is 985(red) and 984(green)