These are the forecasts of 500 mb heights (m) valid at 12Z 1/25/00 compared to the Eta 500 mb height analysis valid at that time for 4 different Eta cycles. The plots are displayed in the order in which that model cycle was run. The verifying analysis from the Eta is shown in orange, and the particular forecast is in purple. Note the slow trend of the forecasts to produce a closed low on the Carolina coast and the failure to predict the strength of the ridge over the western Atlantic. Also note the early problems with the handling the trough moving through the Great Lakes and the ridge over the Rockies.