AVN FORECASTS

These are AVN forecasts from the 12Z cycle on 1/24/00. The first plot compares the AVN forecast of sea level pressure (green) to the Eta (red); the storm center in the AVN is more sheared out and weaker than the Eta.

12Z 1/24/00 AVN vs. ETA

Note: central pressure is 987 (Eta) vs. 990(AVN)

The next 2 plots compare the AVN 24-hour precipitation total valid at 36 hours to the Eta prediction for the same time period. The AVN brings heavier precipitation into New Jersey, but the Eta brings more precipitation further to the west across Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina.

AVN

ETA

The next plot compares the AVN forecast of sea level pressure (green) to the Eta (red) FOR THE 18Z CYCLE; this plot doesn't look too different from the comparison at 12Z, except that the AVN is trending closer to the Eta.

18Z 1/24/00 AVN vs. ETA

Note: central pressure is 987 (Eta) vs. 990(AVN)

The next 2 plots compare the 18Z AVN 24-hour precipitation total valid at 30 hours to the Eta prediction for the same time period. Like the Eta, the 18Z AVN displayed a westward trend compared to its previous runs. The AVN brings heavier precipitation further north and west than the Eta in the northern areas, while the Eta is heavier to the north and west in the southern areas. Both models forecast about 0.25" in the Washington, DC area with much heavier amounts not too far away.

AVN

ETA