Case Example Eastern U.S. Cyclone 5-6 March 2008

Model forecast cycle from 12Z 3 March 2008 showed significant disagreement with the track of a cyclone moving north from the southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in the day 2-3 time period
Operational NAM appeared to be a western outlier with the cyclone track compared to the balance of the other deterministic guidance (GFS, ECMWF)

Model forecast cycle from 12Z 3 March 2008 showed significant disagreement with the track of a cyclone moving north from the southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in the day 2-3 time period