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The Storm Prediction Center endorses the proposed EMC-NAM crisis change scheduled for implementation in production on 19 December 2006. The errors EMC have isolated and attempted to address with this change are significant and if not addressed have the potential to adversely effect forecast operations during critical weather events. Results from your parallel testing suggest the changes will significantly mitigate the problems and improve the overall NAM forecasts with no degradation in QPF scores. Modifications to the current convective scheme contained in this crisis change are also welcomed by the SPC.
The SPC supports prompt implementation of the proposed changes.