EMC MODEL FORECAST VERIFICATION STATS

The plots of bias and RMS error (RMSE) statistics are labeled in an abbreviated form. STAT refers to the statistic type, which is either SL1L2 or VL1L2---terms referring to a set of means over the indicated region consisting of forecast and corresponding observed values, their squares and products. When the statistic type is VL1L2, the vector bias and RMSE are computed from a set of such means for the components of the wind. PARAM indicates the parameter: T is temperature; RH is relative humidity, VWND is the horizontal vector wind, and Z is geopotential height. FHOUR indicates the forecast hour. V_ANL indicates the observational data source or verifying anlysis. V_ANL=ADPUPA indicates that the data source is the rawinsonde data. V_ANL=ANYSFC means that surface data from a variety of sources was used for the verification. V_RGN indicates the verification region by an NCEP or AWIPS grid number (grid 236 is a subset of grid 212). For surface data, the subset region is given by a three-character name following a slash after the grid number. LEVEL denotes the isobaric level of verification or indicates verification at the "surface" (SFC). The verifying hour and minute are denoted by VHHMM. Note that the verifying hour along with the forecast hour determines the cycle time (model initial time) being verified.

The forecast values are interpolated from the grid whose number is indicated following the slash after the model name in the trace label key above each plot. If multiple grid numbers are indicated, then any one of those grids may have been used. The interpolation is a bilinear interpolation to the latitude and longitude of the observation.

Changes to the EMC Forecast Verification System are described in the FVS change log

Statistics for the last 30 days ending yesterday are displayed as follows:

Tropospheric Statistics vs all raobs over CONUS inside grid #236 and over Alaska/Western Canada inside grid #216

VARIABLE 00-H FCST 06-H FCST 12-H FCST 18-H FCST 24-H FCST 30-H FCST 36-H FCST 42-H FCST 48-H FCST 54-H FCST 60-H FCST 72-H FCST 84-H FCST Loop
500 mb Height BIAS and RMSE CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
850 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
700 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
700 mb RH BIAS and RMSE CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
300 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
250 mb Wind Speed BIAS and Vector Wind RMSE CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z
CONUS
VALID 00Z

CONUS
VALID 12Z

ALASKA
VALID 00Z

ALASKA
VALID 12Z

Surface Statistics (Map below shows locations of CONUS sub-regions)

Surface Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE

REGION VALID 00Z VALID 12Z VALID 00Z
(loop)
VALID 12Z
(loop)
GMC (Gulf of Mexico Coast) * * * *
SEC (Southeast Coast) * * * *
NEC (Northeast Coast) * * * *
APL (Appalachian Mountains) * * * *
LMV (Lower Mississippi Valley) * * * *
MDW (Midwest) * * * *
SPL (Southern Plains) * * * *
NPL (Northern Plains) * * * *
SWD (Southwest Desert) * * * *
GRB (Great Basin) * * * *
SMT (Southern Mountains) * * * *
NMT (Northern Mountains) * * * *
NWC (Northwest Coast) * * * *
SWC (Southwest Coast) * * * *
NAK (Northern Alaska) * * * *
SAK (Southern Alaska) * * * *

2-m (Shelter) Temperature BIAS and RMSE

REGION VALID 00Z VALID 12Z VALID 00Z
(loop)
VALID 12Z
(loop)
GMC (Gulf of Mexico Coast) * * * *
SEC (Southeast Coast) * * * *
NEC (Northeast Coast) * * * *
APL (Appalachian Mountains) * * * *
LMV (Lower Mississippi Valley) * * * *
MDW (Midwest) * * * *
SPL (Southern Plains) * * * *
NPL (Northern Plains) * * * *
SWD (Southwest Desert) * * * *
GRB (Great Basin) * * * *
SMT (Southern Mountains) * * * *
NMT (Northern Mountains) * * * *
NWC (Northwest Coast) * * * *
SWC (Southwest Coast) * * * *
NAK (Northern Alaska) * * * *
SAK (Southern Alaska) * * * *

2-m (Shelter) Dew Point Temperature BIAS and RMSE

REGION VALID 00Z VALID 12Z VALID 00Z
(loop)
VALID 12Z
(loop)
GMC (Gulf of Mexico Coast) * * * *
SEC (Southeast Coast) * * * *
NEC (Northeast Coast) * * * *
APL (Appalachian Mountains) * * * *
LMV (Lower Mississippi Valley) * * * *
MDW (Midwest) * * * *
SPL (Southern Plains) * * * *
NPL (Northern Plains) * * * *
SWD (Southwest Desert) * * * *
GRB (Great Basin) * * * *
SMT (Southern Mountains) * * * *
NMT (Northern Mountains) * * * *
NWC (Northwest Coast) * * * *
SWC (Southwest Coast) * * * *
NAK (Northern Alaska) * * * *
SAK (Southern Alaska) * * * *