EMC MODEL FORECAST VERIFICATION STATS - HI-RES WINDOW RUNS

Model naming conventions as of 8/26/14 (Cycle time that each model is initialized in parenthesis):

  • NAM : Operational North American Meso Model (00z,06z,12z,18z)
    1. Upper-air stats : NAM nest vs HIRESW runs
    2. Surface stats : NAM 12 km parent vs NAM nest vs HIRESW runs
  • AKNMMB : Hiresw NMMB Alaska domain (06z, 18z)
  • HINMMB : Hiresw NMMB Hawaii domain (00z, 12z)
  • PRNMMB : Hiresw NMMB Puerto Rico domain (06z, 18z)
  • CONUSNMMB : Hiresw NMMB CONUS domain, verified over full CONUS (00z,12z)

  • AKARW : Hiresw WRF-ARW Alaska domain (06z, 18z)
  • HIARW : Hiresw WRF-ARW Hawaii domain (00z, 12z)
  • PRARW : Hiresw WRF-ARW Puerto Rico domain (06z, 18z)
  • CONUSARW : Hiresw WRF-ARW CONUS domain, verified over full CONUS (00z,12z)

    Changes to the EMC Forecast Verification System are described in the FVS change log

    Click here for a display of the areal coverage of each regional HIRESW domain.

    Statistics for the last 21 days vs raobs and last 15 days vs sfc data ending yesterday are be displayed as follows:

    Tropospheric Statistics

    06-H FCST 12-H FCST 18-H FCST 24-H FCST 30-H FCST 36-H FCST 42-H FCST 48-H FCST
    500 mb Height BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    850 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    700 mb Relative Humidity BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    700 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    700 mb Vector Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    500 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    300 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    250 mb Vector Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z
    CONUS
    VALID 00Z

    CONUS
    VALID 12Z

    850-550 mb Mean Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE vs Aircraft/VADWIND data

    REGION 06-H 12-H 18-H 24-H 30-H 36-H 42-H 48-H Loop
    Hawaii VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Puerto Rico VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    06z run
    18z run

    Surface Statistics

    All available surface observations are used for the verification over the regions shown in the map below, plus Hawaii and Puerto Rico. These verification regions are grouped together for each of these HIRESW domains:

  • Eastern US : NEC, APL, SEC, GMC, MDW, LMV, NPL, SPL, NMT, SMT, SWD
  • Western US : NPL, SPL, NMT, SMT, GRB, SWD, NWC, SWC, LMV, GMC
  • Alaska : NAK, SAK, WCA (not shown on map)
  • 10-m Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE

    REGION 06-H 12-H 18-H 24-H 30-H 36-H 42-H 48-H Loop
    Alaska VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    06z run
    18z run
    Eastern US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Western US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Hawaii VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Puerto Rico VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    06z run
    18z run

    2-m Temperature BIAS and RMSE

    REGION 06-H 12-H 18-H 24-H 30-H 36-H 42-H 48-H Loop
    Alaska VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    06z run
    18z run
    Eastern US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Western US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Hawaii VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Puerto Rico VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    06z run
    18z run

    2-m Relative Humidity BIAS and RMSE

    REGION 06-H 12-H 18-H 24-H 30-H 36-H 42-H 48-H Loop
    Alaska VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    06z run
    18z run
    Eastern US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Western US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run

    2-m Dew Point Temperature BIAS and RMSE

    REGION 06-H 12-H 18-H 24-H 30-H 36-H 42-H 48-H Loop
    Alaska VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    06z run
    18z run
    Eastern US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Western US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run