EMC MODEL FORECAST VERIFICATION STATS - HI-RES WINDOW RUNS

The plots of bias and RMS error (RMSE) statistics are labeled in an abbreviated form. STAT refers to the statistic type, which is either SL1L2 or VL1L2---terms referring to a set of means over the indicated region consisting of forecast and corresponding observed values, their squares and products. When the statistic type is VL1L2, the vector bias and RMSE are computed from a set of such means for the components of the wind. PARAM indicates the parameter: T is temperature; RH is relative humidity, VWND is the horizontal vector wind, and Z is geopotential height. FHOUR indicates the forecast hour. V_ANL indicates the observational data source or verifying anlysis. V_ANL=ADPUPA indicates that the data source is the rawinsonde data. V_ANL=ANYSFC means that surface data from a variety of sources was used for the verification. V_RGN indicates the verification region by an NCEP or AWIPS grid number :

  • 155 = Eastern US nest
  • 156 = Western US nest
  • 159 = Alaska nest
  • LEVEL denotes the isobaric level of verification or indicates verification at the "surface" (SFC). The verifying hour and minute are denoted by VHHMM. Note that the verifying hour along with the forecast hour determines the cycle time (model initial time) being verified.

    The forecast values are interpolated from the grid whose number is indicated following the slash after the model name in the trace label key above each plot. If multiple grid numbers are indicated, then any one of those grids may have been used. The interpolation is a bilinear interpolation to the latitude and longitude of the observation.

    Model naming conventions as of 9/11/07 (Cycle time that each model is initialized in parenthesis):

  • NAM : Operational North American Meso Model (00z,06z,12z,18z; verifications plotted only for NAM runs starting from the same cycle as the respective HIRESW run). For all surface verifications and Hawaii/Puerto Rico verification against aircraft and VAD wind data, verifications are also plotted for the NAM nest domains:
    1. 4 km CONUS
    2. 6 km Alaska
    3. 3 km Hawaii
    4. 3 km Puerto Rico
  • AKNMM : Ops WRF-NMM, Alaska (18z)
  • EASTNMM : Ops WRF-NMM, east US (00z,12z)
  • WESTNMM : Ops WRF-NMM, west US (06z)

  • AKARW : Ops WRF-ARW WRF, Alaska (18z)
  • EASTARW : Ops WRF-ARW, eastern US (00z,12z)
  • WESTARW : Ops WRF-ARW, western US (06z)

    Changes to the EMC Forecast Verification System are described in the FVS change log

    Click here for a display of the areal coverage of each regional HIRESW domain.

    Statistics for the last 15 days vs raobs and last 10 days vs sfc data ending yesterday are be displayed as follows:

    Tropospheric Statistics

    06-H FCST 12-H FCST 18-H FCST 24-H FCST 30-H FCST 36-H FCST 42-H FCST 48-H FCST
    500 mb Height BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    850 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    700 mb Relative Humidity BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    700 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    700 mb Vector Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    500 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    300 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    250 mb Vector Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 00Z

    WEST US
    VALID 12Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z
    ALASKA
    VALID 12Z

    WEST US
    VALID 00Z
    EAST US
    VALID 00Z

    EAST US
    VALID 12Z

    850-550 mb Mean Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE vs Aircraft/VADWIND data

    REGION 06-H 12-H 18-H 24-H 30-H 36-H 42-H 48-H Loop
    Hawaii VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Puerto Rico VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    06z run
    18z run

    Surface Statistics

    All available surface observations are used for the verification over the regions shown in the map below, plus Hawaii and Puerto Rico. These verification regions are grouped together for each of these HIRESW domains:

  • Eastern US Nest : NEC, APL, SEC, GMC, MDW, LMV, NPL, SPL, NMT, SMT, SWD
  • Western US Nest : NPL, SPL, NMT, SMT, GRB, SWD, NWC, SWC, LMV, GMC
  • Alaska Nest : NAK, SAK, WCA (not shown on map)
  • 10-m Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE

    REGION 06-H 12-H 18-H 24-H 30-H 36-H 42-H 48-H Loop
    Alaska * * * * * * * * *
    Western US * * * * * * * * *
    Eastern US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Hawaii VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Puerto Rico VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    06z run
    18z run

    2-m Temperature BIAS and RMSE

    REGION 06-H 12-H 18-H 24-H 30-H 36-H 42-H 48-H Loop
    Alaska * * * * * * * * *
    Western US * * * * * * * * *
    Eastern US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Hawaii VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run
    Puerto Rico VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    06z run
    18z run

    2-m Relative Humidity BIAS and RMSE

    REGION 06-H 12-H 18-H 24-H 30-H 36-H 42-H 48-H Loop
    Alaska * * * * * * * * *
    Western US * * * * * * * * *
    Eastern US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run

    2-m Dew Point Temperature BIAS and RMSE

    REGION 06-H 12-H 18-H 24-H 30-H 36-H 42-H 48-H Loop
    Alaska * * * * * * * * *
    Western US * * * * * * * * *
    Eastern US VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 12Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 18Z
    VALID 06Z
    VALID 00Z
    VALID 12Z
    00z run
    12z run