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NCEP Service Center Evaluations HPC Pete Manousos
During this period, subjectively it was felt that the NMM5 output was generally an improvement over the NMM and even EM5 output. No significant differences were noted in phase of mass fields. However, the NMM5 seemed to be slightly more amplified in both directions (highs/lows warm/cold). This seemed more a function of the higher resolution of the NMM5 compared to the NMM, not a direct function of model accuracy.
One concern noted was the overforecast of maxima from convection compared to observations - but note the areal coverage was not observed to be over forecast, just the amplitude (by about .25-.50"). The color scale for QPF made it very difficult to determine the exact amount