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Table of contents

June 2005 Upgrade Package for High Resolution Window (HRW) Decision Brief

June 2005 Upgrade Package Background – Original Plan

June 2005 Upgrade Package Background – What Changed

June 2005 Upgrade Package The New Plan

Bill Gallus’ DTC Work

June 2005 Upgrade Package Validation of New Plan

HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested Runs 21 Sept 2004 Became WRF Runs of Two Control Configurations WRF-ARW at 10km/50levels and WRF-NMM at 8km/60levels

HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested Runs 28 June 2005 Become Explicit WRF Runs of Two Control Configs WRF-ARW at 5.8km/35levels and WRF-NMM at 5.1km/35levels

Prior Experience: BAMEX

BAMEX Success: Mode of Convection

Prior Experience: SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004

Domains of Integration for Spring Program NCEP NMM (red/orange), NCAR (blue), CAPS (cyan)

Example of Explicit 4.5 km WRF-NMM courtesy of Jack Kain

HiResWindow WRF Runs vs Eta

4km WRF Runs vs 12km Eta

Matt Pyle’s Web Site Displaying 4.5 km WRF-NMM

Web Site Now Displaying Simulated Reflectivity

Prior Experience: DTC Winter Forecast Experiment

PowerPoint Presentation

Examples of Phenomena Forecast by DWFE WRF Models from a presentation made by Steve Koch to OAR

Narrow Reflectivity Bands: 23 January 2005

Topographically forced Pressure Waves and Snowbands in New England Blizzard: 23 January 2005

Reflectivity Structures in Marine Boundary Layer: 23 January 2005

Mesoscale vortex over Lake Erie: 22 January 2005

DC Metro Snowstorm Bust: 27-28 February 2005 A comparison between two WRF forecasts made 24h apart demonstrating that the synoptic-scale must be forecast correctly as a necessary condition to predicting mesoscale structures accurately

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Loop of 3-hr QPF

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Comparison of NCEP and RTVS methods for calculating ETS & Bias 95% confidence intervals using bootstrapping method are shown

DWFE Forecaster Feedback Pluses Minuses

NCEP’s Explicit WRF HiResWindow Evaluation

Forecast Examples From Evaluation Period: Shelter Temperature 10 m Wind QPF

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5km QPF Comparison Plot

“Big Picture” 5km Sfc Winds Comparison can’t see anything really meaningful

Local 5km Sfc Winds Comparison Plot

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“Local” 5km Sfc Winds Comparison Plot

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24 hr QPF Verification

NWS Central Region Evaluation Tom Hultquist

NWS CR Evaluation Comments from Omaha WFO

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NWS CR Evaluation Comments from Sullivan WFO

NWS Central Region Recommendation

NWS ER Evaluation Comments from Josh Watson

NWS Eastern Region Recommendation

NCEP Service Center Evaluations HPC Pete Manousos

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NCEP Service Center Evaluations - HPC

NCEP Service Center Evaluations SPC Steve Weiss

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NCEP Service Center Evaluations - SPC


Author: Geoff DiMego


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